EGYPT: MORE DEMONSTRATIONS PLANNED FOR MAY 25

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003106

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: MORE DEMONSTRATIONS PLANNED FOR MAY 25

REF: CAIRO 3006

Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Cairo-based anti-government activists are
planning for a third Thursday in a row of demonstrations on
May 25. The date is the first anniversary of the referendum
amending the Egyptian constitution to permit multi-candidate
presidential elections, marred at the time by police attacks
on peaceful demonstrators calling for a boycott. An array of
different, mainly leftist secular groups are planning to
participate, in addition to a silent protest planned by the
Judges Club, and possible participation in demonstrations by
the Muslim Brotherhood. There may be disruptions, arrests,
and police beatings of demonstrators similar to those on May
11 and 18. End summary.


2. (SBU) For the third Thursday in a row, anti-regime
activists plan to defy a GOE ban and demonstrate in Central
Cairo on May 25. The demonstrations coincide with the first
anniversary of the referendum on the amendment of Article 76
of the Egyptian Constitution. Demonstrators want to remind
the public of the violence employed by plainclothes police
who put down demonstrations urging a boycott of the
referendum - violence which was documented in dramatic photos
by the media and which prompted international condemnation,
including a statement by President Bush.


3. (SBU) Contacts advise that teaching staff at Cairo
University will hold a silent protest at 11:30 a.m. to demand
the release of students and faculty detained in recent
demonstrations. However, the center of the action on May 25
will be in the area just south of Ramses Street and a few
blocks east of the Nile in central Cairo, where contacts
advise us that the Ghad Party, the unlicensed Karamah Party,
and the student groups Youth for Change and the 9th of March
Movement plan to gather at the Bar Syndicate at 1 pm.


4. (SBU) The Judges Club, which has vowed to continue to
press its demands for a new law that would institute sweeping
changes to the management and regulation of the judiciary,
has called for a one hour silent protest to begin at 1:30
p.m. in front of Club headquarters, just around the corner
from Cairo's Central Court House. At 3:00 p.m. Kefaya
("Enough"),journalists, and communists, are planning to
rally on the steps of the press syndicate, just one door up
from the Judges Club, the site of the May 25, 2005 attacks on
demonstrators. The secular activist group Shayfeenkom ("we
are watching") has been running ads in the independent media
and sending mass mobile phone text messages to publicize the
demonstrations and raise public awareness on some of the core
issues.


5. (SBU) Kefaya has also called on Egyptians to turn off all
their lights at 9 p.m. and drape black banners, as a sign of
mourning for the May 25, 2005 attacks and continued
suppression by the Government.


6. (C) Comment: We are doubtful that many Cairenes will heed
Kefaya's call for a symbolic blackout, but May 25 could well
see a repeat of the police blockades, violence, and
disruptions that Cairo has witnessed for the past two
Thursdays. There are unconfirmed reports that the Muslim
Brotherhood will participate in some of these demostrations.
The extent of the MB's involvement will likely determine the
magnitude of the demonstrations and the ferocity of the GOE's
response. End comment.

RICCIARDONE