MAY 18 - CRUNCH TIME ON AYMAN NOUR/JUDGES CASES

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 002971 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC STAFF FOR SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG SUBJECT: MAY 18 - CRUNCH TIME ON AYMAN NOUR/JUDGES CASES REF: CAIRO 2796 Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On May 18, Cairo's Central Court Complex, Dar al-Qada al-Aly, will be the focal point of two dramas currently dominating Egypt's domestic political scene. In one room, the Court of Cassation will hear the appeal of jailed opposition leader Ayman Nour. In another room, a disciplinary hearing convened by the Supreme Judicial Council will resume its examination of Judges Hisham Bestawissy and Ahmed Mekky, who stand accused of defaming their colleagues by exposing fraud and manipulation in last fall's parliamentary elections. Judge Bestawissy has been hospitalized after he suffered a heart attack on the morning of May 17. Although the GOE has announced that, following the harsh crackdown on May 11 protests, it will again be strictly enforcing a ban on demonstrations, we understand a number of protest groups plan to turn out on the 18th. End summary. ¶2. (C) Following his December 24, 2005 conviction on forgery charges, the appeal of jailed opposition leader Ayman Nour will be heard by Egypt's Court of Cassation on May 18. Speculation on the likely outcome has been furious and divided. Those who believe he will be acquitted note the "technical report" prepared by court clerks, leaked earlier this week, which cites numerous technical and procedural flaws in the December 24 judgment against him. Amir Salem (protect),leader of Nour's defense team, told poloff last week that the appeal was "air-tight" - they had identified so many indisputable flaws in the judgment that the court would have no choice but to throw out the conviction, he asserted. Poloff and other western diplomats have also been surprised by the apparent eagerness of court officials to facilitate entry to the courtroom, amidst what will likely be a tense and chaotic mix of security forces and supporters of either Ayman Nour or the judges. Likewise, a western journalist contact told us he had been strongly encouraged by a senior ruling party official to attend the May 18 Nour hearing, which he took as a signal that his conviction will be overturned. (Note: Nour is not expected to attend the hearing. End note.) ¶3. (C) On the other hand, pessimists have pointed to the selection of Judge Salah al-Bourgy to preside over Nour's case. Bourgy was selected by the GOE to participate in the investigation against maverick judges Bestawisy and Mekky. A fellow cassation court judge told poloff on May 17 that Bourgy has a reputation for turning down appeals and predicted that he would uphold Nour's conviction. The new charges filed in March against Nour, his wife Gameela Ismail, and other Ghad Party leaders were also a bad omen, observers believe, and suggested that the GOE was determined to bury Nour, rather than find a face-saving exit strategy from the internationally controversial case. If the conviction is overturned, Nour will likely be released within 48 hours and face a retrial at a future date. If the conviction is upheld, Nour will remain in jail, though his lawyers would still have other legal avenues to pursue. Our senior judicial contact suggested that the most likely outcome on May 18 would be for the judge to postpone a decision on Nour's case to a later date. ¶4. (C) Meanwhile, a judicial disciplinary hearing against Judges Hisham Bestawisy and Ahmed Makky is set to convene May 18, in a room just down the hall from Nour's appeal hearing. As reported reftel, the original May 11 hearing was aborted after the two judges refused to enter after being told that only eight of their substantial entourage of legal advisors would be admitted, as plainclothes police on the streets outside assaulted journalists and demonstrators and arrested more than 200. It is even less likely that both defendants will be present on May 18: Judge Bestawisy was hospitalized following a heart attack on the morning of May 17 (his condition is said to be improving) and had earlier told reporters he will not attend until all of those arrested for demonstrating in solidarity with the Judges Club are freed. Contacts tell us that Judge Mekky is likely to attend. ¶5. (C) A majority of observers are convinced that the Supreme Judicial Council's actions against Bestawisy and Mekky are payback by the GOE for their embarrassing revelations about the extent and mechanics of electoral fraud and manipulation in the fall 2005 parliamentary elections. However, a senior judicial contact insisted to poloff during a May 17 meeting that the issue is rooted in a personal feud between Cassation Chief Justice Judge Fathy Khalifa (also head of the Supreme Judicial Council),and the leadership of the Judges Club. Our contact described Khalifa as "the most stubborn man in Egypt," who feels slighted by disrespect from the Judges Club and intent on "teaching them a lesson," regardless of the consequences. Justice Minister Aboul Leil, described as "hapless" by our contact, has repeatedly failed in his attempts to defuse the crisis. Our contact cited early May news reports that Aboul Leil had gone to Khalifa's house to try to broker a solution, but was stood up at the door. ¶6. (C) Comment: We are skeptical that Judge Fathy Khalifa, however stubborn he may be, would be given a free hand to pursue his vendetta against the Judges Club, in spite of the considerable domestic and international political cost to the GOE, if he did not have the support and approval of the senior political leadership. At the same time, President Mubarak's remarks on the subject (reftel) suggest that he is not particularly engaged on the issue and may not appreciate its resonance inside Egypt and abroad. End comment. ¶7. (C) A week after the violent suppression of pro-judges demonstrations on May 11, many are apprehensive about the potential for more violence on May 18. Although the GOE has made clear that it will strictly enforce its ban on demonstrations, our contacts report that protest groups (mainly secular/leftist) including Kefaya, Youth for Change, the Tagammu' Party, the Nasserist Party, and "The March 9 Movement" (a nascent student protest group) plan to turn out - potentially setting the stage for a repeat of the beatings and arrests of about 200 demonstrators witnessed on May 11. A key factor will be whether the Muslim Brotherhood elects to participate in the demonstrations, as they did last week. By most accounts they turned out hundreds more on May 11 than all the other groups combined. RICCIARDONE