GAMAL MUBARAK: DESPITE HIGH PROFILE, DOUBTS FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 002671

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG
SUBJECT: GAMAL MUBARAK: DESPITE HIGH PROFILE, DOUBTS FROM
WITHIN AND WITHOUT

REF: CAIRO 2010

Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On the eve of Gamal Mubarak's unpublicized
visit to Washington, he remains a decidedly controversial
figure inside Egypt. Since reftel's analysis of Gamal's
standing, vehement public skepticism continues and we are
even hearing murmurs of dissent from within his own circle.
Commentators depict him as arrogant and out of touch, a view
widely held on the Egyptian street. A key ruling party
insider recently confided to us his own personal frustration
and doubts about Gamal and his leadership of the reform
process. End summary.


2. (C) Maintaining his high domestic profile (reftel),Gamal
Mubarak gave a well publicized press conference on May 4, on
the eve of his departure for Europe and the United States (a
trip so far unpublicized by the Egyptian media). The press
conference followed a meeting of the ruling NDP's Policies
Secretariat, a body created in 2002, allegedly tailor-made

SIPDIS
for him as a platform to enter national politics. Gamal
refused to take questions about his presidential ambitions,
insisting that his position on the subject was clear, and
referred reporters to earlier interviews. (As discussed
reftel, Gamal and proxies, including his father, adamantly
deny the existence of any plan for him to succeed his father,
though most Egyptians believe his actions speak louder than
his words. Likewise, presidential advisor Osama El Baz
reaffirmed on May 7 that there is no plan for Gamal to assume
the presidency. El Baz rhetorically asked who, given the
array of challenges facing Egypt today, would aspire to take
such a difficult job?)


3. (C) Rather than discuss succession, in his May 4 press
conference Gamal stressed his belief that the process of
comprehensive economic and political reform in Egypt was
pushing forward, on an "irreversible" course. He also
asserted that the current confrontation between Egypt's
Judges Club and the GOE-appointed Supreme Judiciary Council
(septels) was an intra-judicial matter in which the NDP had
no role. He dismissed the image of the GOE bullying and
trying to cow Egypt's judiciary as an "illusion." Gamal also
reaffirmed the government's commitment to replace the
emergency law with a modern counterterrorism law within the
next two years, and noted that this process will require
amendments to the constitution. In response to another
question, Gamal stated that discussion of further reforms to
Egypt's electoral system would be "premature" for the moment.


4. (C) Writing May 7 in the influential independent daily
Al-Masry Al-Youm, columnist Soliman Gouda bitterly attacked
Gamal's remarks at the press conference, which, he asserted,
reflected the arrogance of a "commanding king." Gouda
contended that Gamal's overall tone, and many of his specific
references, indicated how out of touch he was with the views
and concerns of common Egyptians and also highlighted the
broader disconnect between the ruling NDP, which asserts that
sweeping reforms are underway and the people, who disbelieve
it. Gouda's view of Gamal as an elite and arrogant insider,
out of touch with the Egyptian street, is widely held among
our contacts. Strong opposition to perceived Gamal
succession plans have also been a prominent side theme of
ongoing demonstrations in late April and early May by groups
protesting the "suppression" of Egypt's judges (septels).


5. (C) Along similar lines, but from an insider's
perspective, a prominent businessman and key member of the
NDP Policies Secretariat headed by Gamal told the DCM in late
April that he was fed up with lack of progress toward
substantive reform and was looking to disengage. The
businessman complained that attendance at the Policies
Secretariat is down to about one-third of its membership.

SIPDIS
The intense work in the committee in the run-up to the
elections last fall had been held up as an example of the
reformist activism at work in the NDP. Now, he said, there
is no point in going; they just rehash the same conversations
and make no progress. He told First Lady Suzanne Mubarak,
whom he admires, that he is going to withdraw from party
activities. She reportedly had urged him to stay the course
but offered no assurances conditions would improve.


6. (C) The businessman lamented the mediocrity of the
professors and other members who continue to participate in
the policy committee. "These guys just do not have the fire
power to get anything done," he opined. He laid blame for
the drift at the feet of Gamal. "He has refused to lead,"
and this has created a vacuum of power in the party. "Many
of us want him to step forward and assert himself but he is
laying back, saying that he is not a candidate." This
abdication of responsibility for the reform agenda, our
contact suggested, left power in the hands of the old guard
who were not interested in reform.


7. (C) Comment: The businessman's report adds to other
murmurs of dissatisfaction with progress on the political
reforms. Prominent intellectual Osama Ghazali Harb's very
public break with the party was clearly intended to highlight
the failure of Gamal's experiment of attracting leading
reformers into the party. But this critique, coming from a
respected business leader with close ties to the Mubarak
family, suggests that the government's and the party,s hype
that progress is underway may be hollow.


8. (C) Comment continued: Assuming Gamal Mubarak's
presidential ambitions are real, Egypt's existing legal
framework clearly favors him, and no obvious contenders stand
in his way. At the same time, public opinion toward his
possible succession is decidedly hostile - a factor unlikely
to change significantly in the near future. Perhaps most
importantly, it is unclear whether the military, which has
supplied each of Republican Egypt's three presidents to date,
would support him. End comment.
RICCIARDONE