DEFMIN TANTAWI ON MFO, PSI, DEMOCRATIC REFORM AND FMF

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 001782 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER IS EG KNNP SUBJECT: DEFMIN TANTAWI ON MFO, PSI, DEMOCRATIC REFORM AND FMF Classified by Ambassador Francis Ricciardone for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On March 19, the Ambassador and Defense Minister Tantawi discussed Iraq, Sudan, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB),and Tantawi's impressions of his recent visit to Washington. Tantawi reaffirmed the GOE view that for now, U.S. troops must remain in Iraq. On his meetings in Washington, Tantawi said he was concerned by the discussion about potentially drawing down the U.S. presence in the MFO and reassured by the Administration's support for maintaining the current level of FMF. Tantawi also said Egypt is committed to maintaining strong but "quiet" counter-proliferation cooperation with the U.S. Tantawi said formally joining the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) would be counter productive as it would certainly arouse domestic political opposition, particularly from the new parliament. End summary. ¶2. (C) Regional issues: Defense Minister Tantawi told the Ambassador during a March 19 meeting that it would be very dangerous for the U.S. to withdraw its troops before Iraq is stabilized and that he was reassured by Washington officials' affirmation that the U.S. has no plans for a sudden withdrawal. Tantawi also added that there must be a strong Sunni representation in the new government. On Sudan, Tantawi said although it is a "headache," it is not as difficult an issue as Iraq, and Egypt is working to help the situation. ¶3. (C) Tantawi's impressions of meetings in D.C.: Tantawi said that Defense Secretary Rumsfeld's reference to potentially drawing down the U.S. battalion in MFO was troubling. He explained that Egypt and Israel agree that the timing for a drawdown -- post Gaza disengagement -- is not right and added that the U.S. presence gives influence and credibility to the MFO. He noted with amused satisfaction that when he had responded in these terms to Secretary Rumsfeld's suggestion, the Secretary observed that "Egypt and Israel have the same view" on this. On FMF, Tantawi said he was pleased with the assurances he received from the Administration on the need to maintain the same level of funding for the coming year. Although Tantawi said his meetings with members of Congress were positive, he expressed concern over Representative Obey's apparent change of heart. Tantawi explained that because Obey had always been a "friend" of Egypt, he was surprised and disappointed to hear the Congressman raise questions about Egypt's FMF. ¶4. (C) When the Ambassador emphasized the importance of continuing our strong bilateral cooperation on counter-proliferation, Tantawi acknowledged that the Secretary of Defense had urged Egypt to consider the PSI. Tantawi said that GOE counter-proliferation cooperation is excellent and cited examples in which the Egyptians agreed to board and search vessels. Tantawi then explained that the PSI would not improve cooperation and, because of internal sensitivities, may actually interfere with it. He specifically noted the likelihood that the PSI would be brought to parliament's attention could only undermine our cooperation. In light of this, Tantawi said, the GOE prefers to handle interdiction requests on a case by case basis. The timing is not right to discuss the PSI, he stressed. Tantawi contended that we can reach PSI's objectives without Egypt's formal enrollment in the PSI. ¶5. (C) Democratic Reform: Tantawi told the Ambassador that the GOE is working to strike a balance between openness and stability. Noting the MB-Hamas link, Tantawi said the GOE is watching this closely to control, but not crack down on, the MB. He complained that the MB gets away with criticizing the GOE extensively and said there is no way to respond. He invited the Ambassador's "advice." The Ambassador urged the GOE to use increased openness to advantage -- not necessarily for "dialogue" with the Islamists but rather for debate: voices of secular opposition to the MB needed to be heard, whether from within the ruling party, or from a strengthened democratic opposition, or both. Tantawi said that this will all come with time and at a pace appropriate for Egypt. The Ambassador countered that the MB seems to be advancing its agenda at a faster pace to meet what appears to be popular demand for change. RICCIARDONE