ISN A/S RADEMAKER DISCUSSES IRAN WITH ARAB LEAGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 001233 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV IAEA EG IR IS KNNP SUBJECT: ISN A/S RADEMAKER DISCUSSES IRAN WITH ARAB LEAGUE SECRETARY GENERAL AMRE MOUSSA SIPDIS Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: International Security and Nonproliferation Assistant Secretary Stephen Rademaker, joined by DCM Stuart Jones, discussed Iran and a proposed Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (MEWMDFZ) with Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa on February ¶16. Moussa acknowledged that Iran's nuclear weapons program must not be allowed to proceed, and said "I am convinced" there will be further nuclear proliferation in the region if Iran were to succeed. But Moussa insisted that Israel's nuclear program and the proposed MEWMDFZ must be publicly addressed if the U.S. hopes to sway Arab opinion and thus enable Arab governments to pressure Iran. A/S Rademaker repeatedly resisted Amre Moussa's insistence on linking the issues, noting that Iran must be addressed immediately because there would be no chance for a MEWMDFZ if Iran acquires nuclear weapons. While Moussa ultimately agreed the Iran and Israeli issues need not be "linked per se," he insisted that the League and other Arab publics and governments would want an acknowledgment of "a relationship" between stopping Iran and creating a zone that includes Israel. Moussa ended by pressing the U.S. to find a way to publicly address the Israeli issue. He said any League statement on Iran would include a reference to Israel's nuclear posture. End summary. ¶2. (C) Assistant Secretary Rademaker told Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa that Iran's nuclear weapons SIPDIS program must be stopped immediately or there will be no chance of achieving the MEWMDFZ. Amre Moussa responded that the U.S. approach of excluding Israel from the regional proliferation discussion is backfiring and support for the U.S. position is weak, even in the Gulf. An example of this, he offered, is the recent failure of the GCC resolution on Iran. The Iranian program, he argued, is a reaction to the Israeli program. Moussa accused the U.S. of not pressuring Israel and said the key to progress is a balanced regional policy on this issue. Moussa proposed beginning a dialogue that would tackle Israel and Iran simultaneously. ¶3. (C) A/S Rademaker warned against linking Iran with Israel and predicted that Israel will not accede to the NPT until there is Middle East peace. He confirmed that the U.S. has long shared the goal of a universal NPT and a WMD-free zone in the region, and cited the recent reference to the latter issue in the February 4 IAEA resolution reporting Iran to the UNSC. However, linking action against Iran to Israel would delay effective international pressure until after Iran succeeds with its nuclear weapons program, which, in turn, would destroy any chance of creating a MEWMDFZ. When A/S Rademaker said that some Gulf countries see themselves, not Israel, as Iran's targets, Moussa disagreed strongly, arguing again that such a fear is inconsistent with the fact that the GCC resolution failed. When A/S Rademaker acknowledged that the League would play a key role in influencing regional views on the Iran matter, Moussa said that to shape opinion, the U.S. would need to be seen as "not forgetting about" Israel. He said any League statement on the Iran nuclear issue would certainly include reference to Israel as well. He reiterated that public opinion is not with the U.S. on this issue and said Arab governments have little leeway, even if they see Iran as a threat. He said that if current trends continue and Iran gains nuclear weapons, the U.S. should "rest assured that there will be a third country" (NFI) in the region that pursues nuclear weapons. ¶4. (C) A/S Rademaker closed by saying that the U.S. understands the League priorities and that he would report the discussion to Washington. He also noted that the League will have a role to play in international efforts to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and that the U.S. hopes it will be a positive role. ¶5. (U) A/S Rademaker cleared this cable. RICCIARDONE