EGYPT: AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE

UNCLAS CAIRO 001100 SIPDIS SENSITIVE FOR NEA, NEA/ELA, NEA/RA FOR OES, OES/IHA NSC STAFF FOR SINGH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: TBIO AMED CASC SENV EAGR EAID EG KFLU SUBJECT: EGYPT: AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE REF: A. CAIRO 1007 ¶B. CAIRO 1006 Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary. H5N1 avian influenza has spread to twelve governorates in Egypt. Poultry sales have virtually ceased since the February 17 GOE announcement (ref A) that H5N1 had been detected. The GOE has instituted a number of measures to combat the outbreak, but it is unclear how effective they are. Popular fear may prove the most effective avian influenza countermeasure. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Egyptian officials have told emboffs (but not yet announced publicly) that infected birds have been found in twelve governorates, up from the initial three reported February 17. Ministry of Agriculture officials also told emboffs that three commercial flocks have been affected; 10,000 birds have been culled at one of those farms. No human cases have been detected. Health Minister El Gabaly is quoted in the press that 200 people in contact with infected birds have tested negative for H5N1 and that the GOE has tested 5,000 people for H5N1 since October 2005, all of whom tested negative. ¶3. (SBU) It is difficult to assess the extent and effectiveness of GOE countermeasures. Egyptian officials report that three kilometer quarantine areas are established around each suspected incident site and all birds within the quarantine areas are culled. On February 19, the Minister of Agriculture issued a decree prohibiting for fifteen days the transport between governorates of all live birds without a permit. The decree also prohibits transportation of poultry manure, feathers, and all poultry by-products. Exempt are day-old chicks, eggs, and chilled/frozen poultry slaughtered at approved plants. The decree also prohibits the sale of live birds in public markets and bans backyard and rooftop coops. ¶4. (SBU) By February 19, merchants who sell and slaughter live chickens had generally closed in compliance with the Agriculture Minister's decree; those that remained open had little business. Poultry prices have plunged, while the prices of other protein sources (such as fish) have increased. The price of live chicken had already fallen from LE 6.50 per kilo to LE 3.70 (exchange rate LE 5.75/dollar) just before the February 17 announcement. The Egyptian Federation of Poultry Producers confirmed that, since the announcement, bird sales have virtually stopped. ¶5. (SBU) The frequent appearance of government officials on television has not stopped rumors and misinformation. Post denied a February 21 report in one of Cairo's more sensationalist newspapers that the U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit (NAMRU-3) informed the GOE of H5N1 in Egypt weeks ago but that the GOE suppressed the information. (The text of the denial is posted on Embassy Cairo's web site.) Rumors, fueled by text messages, that Cairo's drinking water had been contaminated by farmers dumping chickens in the Nile spread throughout the city in minutes on the afternoon of February 21, overwhelming phone lines and prompting the Ministers of Information and Health to take to the airwaves to issue denials. ¶6. (SBU) Comment. Despite the importance of poultry as a source of protein in the Egyptian diet, popular fear of bird flu may prove the most potent countermeasure of all. The rapid spread of the drinking water rumor and collapse of the poultry market indicate how apprehensive Egyptians are about the disease. There are anecdotal reports that those trying to evade closure of backyard and rooftop coops are being pressured by neighbors to comply. For the time being, those trying to keep birds may find that they are not worth the cost of feed. End comment. RICCIARDONE