Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000966 SIPDIS SIPDIS PASS FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR PATRICE ROBITAILLE TREASURY FOR DAS LEE, RAMIN TOLOUI AND CHRIS KUSHLIS NSC FOR SUE CRONIN AND OCC FOR CARLOS HERNANDEZ USDOC FOR ALEXANDER PEACHER USDOL FOR ILAB PAULA CHURCH AND ROBERT WHOLEY USSOUTHCOM FOR POLAD OPIC FOR GEORGE SCHULTZ AND RUTH ANN NICASTRI E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EFIN ECON ELAB ALOW AR SUBJECT: Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for the two week ending April 28, 2006 -------------- -------------- Bi-Weekly Highlights -------------- -------------- - BCRA increases its 2006 growth forecast to "above 7 percent". - BCRA monetary policy appears to be tightening - April Government Confidence Index down 6 percent m-o- m. - April Consumer Confidence Index down 9.8 percent m-o- m. - GOA runs an ARP 1.4 billion primary fiscal surplus in March- lower than expected. - GOA increases public sector wages by 19 percent. - March industrial production index up 7.5 percent y-o- y. - Commentary of the Week: "The Style of One of Kirchner's Most Controversial Officials, Moreno, the Tough Guy Who Guards Prices." -------------- -------------- BCRA increases its 2006 growth forecast to "above 7 percent" and maintains inflation forecast at 8-11 percent. -------------- -------------- ¶1. In its second quarter inflation report, the BCRA increased its 2006 growth forecast from 6 percent to "above 7 percent" based on the strong economic performance during the first two months of the year and the statistical carry-over effect from 2005. According to the report, the continued strength of the fiscal and trade surpluses, along with the BCRA's increasing reserves and the recovery of the financial system, allowed the BCRA to revise its growth forecast upwards. The BCRA maintained its 2006 inflation forecast unchanged at 8-11 percent. The BCRA highlighted that inflation in the first quarter was 2.9 percent, below market expectations and well below the 4 percent inflation during the same period in ¶2005. -------------- -------------- BCRA monetary policy appears to be tightening. -------------- -------------- ¶2. Recent BCRA measures and the evolution of key monetary variables indicate that the BCRA has shifted towards a tighter monetary policy. The BCRA introduced two measures that will take pesos out of circulation and yield higher interest rates for time deposits. First, the BCRA increased bank liquidity requirements for sight accounts (current and savings accounts) by 2 percentage points to 17 percent. Second, it eliminated the 2.55 percent annual rate that the BCRA pays banks for their minimum reserves. ¶3. The BCRA fulfilled its first-quarter monetary target for M2 (cash plus public and private sector current and savings account) with an average M2 level of ARP 106.2 billion - close to the lower end of its Monetary Program band of ARP 104.4 billion. Still, M2 grew 26 percent y-o-y in the first quarter, and M2 growth will have to decelerate to 21 percent during the rest of the year to fulfill the Monetary Program. (M2 grew 25 percent in 2005.) ¶4. The BCRA ended its policy of shortening Lebac maturities to avoid interest rate increases in December 2005. Since the beginning of the year, the BCRA policy shifted to issue longer-term Nobacs which carry a variable rate of Badlar (rate for deposits of more than ARP 1 million) plus a spread (determined at the BCRA auction). Badlar rates have more than doubled in the past year, from 4.4 percent in April 2005 to 8.9 percent this month. Currently the BCRA is paying interest rates of 12 percent for the 2-year Nobac -- roughly equal to expected inflation -- and Nobacs now represent 40 percent of the BCRA instruments. -------------- -------------- GOA says it will reduce its USD 6.8 billion World Bank debt by 30 percent. -------------- -------------- ¶5. On April 24, an official in the GOA delegation to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund spring meetings stated that the GOA plans to reduce its USD 6.8 billion debt with the World Bank by 30 percent, and that the GOA plans to focus on borrowing from the Inter-American Development Bank, where the GOA will ask for new loans to finance infrastructure projects. Miceli told the press that the IADB is more responsive to GOA policy objectives. -------------- -------------- GOA considering a USD 600 million debt offering in international markets. -------------- -------------- ¶6. On April 26, business daily El Cronista Comercial reported that the GOA is considering tapping international markets for USD 600 million to complete its 2006 financing program. According to Cronista, the GOA is updating its SEC 18K Form (a document summarizing Argentina's economic and political performance). The new instrument would reportedly be a USD-denominated bond issued under U.S. law, and would be the first debt issuance outside of Argentina since the debt restructuring (no further details on the bond's financial conditions were reported). The GOA's U.S. legal advisors are working on a strategy to allow the GOA to tap international markets without running the risk of attachment due to judgments obtained by holdout bondholders in U.S. courts. The GOA's financing needs for 2006 are quite low, as little as USD 1.5-2.0 billion, according to some financial analysts. -------------- -------------- GOA allowed to impose gas and electricity surcharges to finance infrastructure projects. -------------- -------------- ¶7. On April 26, the Senate approved and turned into law a bill allowing the executive branch to charge a surcharge on electricity and gas tariffs, with the proceeds going into fiduciary trust funds to finance infrastructure projects. The GOA previously had said that the surcharge would only affect large users, but the bill does not exempt residential users from these charges. Opposition senators harshly criticized the bill saying it increases residential tariffs and gives the Ministry of Planning the power to set tariffs, determine investments and award contracts. -------------- -------------- Amendments facilitate UIF's information gathering on money laundering. -------------- -------------- ¶8. On April 24, the GOA published in the Official Gazette the first amendments to the Money Laundering Law of 2000. The amendments will facilitate information gathering by the Argentine Financial Intelligence Unit (Unidad de Informacion Financiera or UIF) by revoking bank, stock exchange and professional secrecy defenses against UIF requests for information. The amendments also will make it easier for the UIF to get access to tax information, and restrict exemptions from prosecution for family members and "intimate friends" who assist money launderers. The amendments were approved by Congress at the end of March. -------------- -------------- GOA and textile sector negotiating price restraint agreement for basic clothing. -------------- -------------- ¶9. Recently appointed Secretary of Internal Trade Guillermo Moreno (see Commentary of the Week) met this week with representatives from the textile industry to discuss a price restraint agreement covering a basket of basic clothing (including shirts, t-shirts and jeans of a standard quality). The agreement seeks to freeze prices until the end of the year and is expected to be signed next week. The negotiations come after the clothing component of the CPI increased 6.1 percent m-o-m in March. Moreno is also pressuring shopping centers to fix the price of commercial space for those textile manufacturers who agree to the price restraints. -------------- -------------- Employment index increased 0.7 percent m-o-m in March - according to Ministry of Labor survey. -------------- -------------- ¶10. The Ministry of Labor announced that its employment index increased 0.7 percent m-o-m in March. The construction sector had the highest job creation in March (up 2.3 percent m-o-m) followed by manufacturing (up 0.9 percent m-o-m) and the trade and services sector (up 0.5 percent m-o-m). The index increased 9 percent y-o-y. (The index is based on surveys from the cities of Buenos Aires, Mendoza, Rosario and Cordoba). -------------- -------------- April Government Confidence Index down 6 percent m-o- m. -------------- -------------- ¶11. The Government Confidence Index decreased 6 percent m-o-m in April to 2.54 points, but is still 0.6 points above the average during the Kirchner administration, and well above the 1.2 point reading in May 2003 when President Kirchner took office. Confidence in the GOA's ability to solve citizens' problems is still the factor generating the most confidence, even though it decreased 6 percent m-o-m. Public opinion of GOA general performance and efficiency of public spending decreased 9 percent and 14 percent m-o-m, respectively. The index rose 2 percent y-o-y. [The Government Confidence Index is a survey-based index prepared by Di Tella University. It varies from zero to five points and seeks to measure public opinion of GOA general performance, efficiency of pubic spending, honesty of GOA officials and the government's ability to solve problems.] -------------- -------------- BCRA rolls over its maturities at lower interest rates. -------------- -------------- ¶12. The BCRA received ARP 252 million in bids at its April 25 Lebac auction, compared to the ARP 109 million in Lebacs that came due during the week, while the BCRA received ARP 1.2 billion in bids in its Nobac auction. As in previous auctions, the BCRA therefore was able to roll over its maturities by accepting bids for ARP 765 million (ARP 163 million in Lebacs and ARP 600 million in Nobacs). The yield on the 35-day Lebac decreased slightly from 6.62 percent to 6.60 percent, the yield on the 84-day Lebac decreased from 7.20 percent to 7.10 percent, while the yield on the 1-year Lebac remained unchanged at 11.50 percent. Lebacs for maturities of more than one-year were withdrawn due to lack of interest. The spread on the one-year Nobac decreased sharply (forty basis points) from 2.90 percent to 2.50 percent, while the spread on the two- year Nobac dropped forty five basis points from 4.15 percent to 3.70 percent. This auction continues the previous auctions' shift from Lebacs to Nobacs. This shift is due to the market's desire to acquire instruments with flexible interest rates. The Badlar rate (the base rate for Nobacs) is currently at 8.9 percent. -------------- -------------- Six provinces sign agreements with the GOA to refinance ARP 3.0 billion provincial debt. -------------- -------------- ¶13. On April 26, local media reported that six provinces (Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, Jujuy, Misiones, Rio Negro and Tucuman) had signed agreements with the GOA to refinance their ARP 3.0 billion in provincial debt to the GOA. The agreement will allow provinces to refinance their loans for seven years at a 6 percent fixed rate, with the first principal payments due in January 2008. In exchange, provinces agreed to ratify to the Fiscal Responsibility Law (if they had not already done so),committed to expenditure and debt restrictions, and the need to report on their fiscal situation. Five additional provinces (Catamarca, Cordoba, Chaco, Corrientes and Formosa) are expected to follow suit in coming weeks. Total provincial debt stands at ARP 75 billion, of which 70 percent is owed to the GOA. -------------- -------------- IADB approves USD 280 million loan to Argentina. -------------- -------------- ¶14. On April 26, the Board of Directors of the Inter- American Development Bank (IADB) approved a USD 280 million loan to Argentina. The loan will finance scientific and technological projects in the areas of biotechnology, chemical sciences, information technology and cattle and crop farming. The loan matures in 20 years, has a 4.5-year grace period and carries a variable interest rate. -------------- -------------- The peso appreciated 1 percent against the USD during the last two weeks, closing at 3.06 ARP/USD. -------------- -------------- ¶15. The peso appreciated 1.0 percent the USD during the last two weeks, closing at 3.06 ARP/USD. The peso appreciation is mainly attributed to increased sales by exporters due to the harvest season and increased demand for pesos by companies who have to pay the income tax at the beginning of May. The appreciation of the peso also came in spite of strong BCRA intervention in the foreign exchange market. During the last two weeks, the BCRA purchased USD 757 million and has accumulated USD 1.1 billion so far in April, bringing BCRA reserves to USD 22.2 billion (as of April 25). The peso exchange rate has depreciated 0.3 percent since the beginning of the calendar year. -------------- -------------- February monthly economic activity index up 9.5 percent y-o-y - stronger than expected. -------------- -------------- ¶16. The monthly economic activity index increased 9.5 percent y-o-y in February, well above the BCRA market survey forecast of 8.9 percent. The growth in the index is the result of continued strong activity in the construction and tourism sectors as well as by public infrastructure projects. The index increased 1 percent m-o-m after remaining flat the previous month. The latest BCRA consensus survey estimates 8.6 percent economic activity growth for 2006, an upward revision from its previous forecast of 7 percent. The monthly economic activity index is viewed as a reliable leading indicator of GDP. -------------- -------------- GOA and beef sector reached an agreement to reduce beef prices. -------------- -------------- ¶17. On April 20, the GOA reached an agreement with the beef sector to reduce beef prices on twelve popular cuts by 15 percent, expanding a previous agreement (signed at the beginning of April) which included eleven popular cuts. This latest agreement includes a series of reference prices for use by meatpackers selling beef to wholesalers at the Liniers cattle market, and suggested prices for butchers and supermarkets selling to the public. The GOA also promised to create fiduciary trust funds within 90 days to promote investment and increase domestic cattle supply. These trust funds will be financed by the price difference between the market price that meatpackers pay ranchers at Liniers and the reference price in the agreement. The recently appointed and renamed Secretary of Internal Commerce, Guillermo Moreno, said that this agreement will help reduce inflation and reiterated that the GOA may lift the ban on beef exports once domestic beef prices fall significantly. [At the beginning of March 8, the GOA imposed a ban beef exports for 180 days and raised export taxes on boned cuts and heat-processed beef from 5 percent to 15 percent in an attempt to keep inflation under control.] -------------- -------------- GOA runs an ARP 1.4 billion primary fiscal surplus in March - lower than expected. -------------- -------------- ¶18. The GOA announced a primary fiscal surplus of ARP 1.4 billion in March, below market expectations of ARP 1.6 billion. This brings the accumulated fiscal surplus for the first quarter of 2006 to ARP 4.9 billion, compared to ARP 4.2 billion in the same period last year. The lower-than-expected March result is the result of higher expenses, mainly debt interest payments, transfers to provinces and capital expenditures. In March, revenues increased 25.6 percent y-o-y to ARP 11.2 billion, while expenditures rose 26.7 percent y-o-y to ARP 9.2 billion. The primary fiscal surplus increased 13.7 percent y-o-y. The BCRA consensus forecasts an ARP 22.6 billion primary fiscal surplus for 2006. -------------- -------------- GOA increases public sector wages by 19 percent. -------------- -------------- ¶19. On April 19, the GOA announced that it will increase public sector salaries by 19 percent. However, only one of the two public sector unions agreed to this increase, while the union representing the majority of the public sector employees rejected the increase and continued to demand a 30 percent increase. The 19 percent increase will be implemented in two stages, 10 percent in June and 9 percent in August. The increase will benefit 87,000 workers and will not jeopardize the GOA's primary fiscal surplus as half of the increase was already provided for in 2006 Budget. According to Indec (the GOA statistics bureau),public sector salaries have lost 28 percent of their purchasing power since the 2002 devaluation (without this most recent salary increase). This agreement tracks with the 19 percent salary increase agreement reached between the GOA and the truckers' union two weeks ago. -------------- -------------- Domestic oil prices under pressure. -------------- -------------- ¶20. On April 20, Esso's Public Affairs Director denied there would be any increase in domestic oil prices following the recent increase in international oil prices (which remained above USD 70 per barrel during the week),or a reduction in domestic supply. However, he noted that Argentine domestic oil prices are 40-50 percent below oil prices in Brazil. Esso's representative also said that oil producing companies and non-integrated refining companies are currently in negotiations over the domestic price refiners will pay for crude oil. ¶21. Earlier in the week of April 21, Chief of Cabinet Alberto Fernandez denied that recent increases in international oil prices would impact domestic prices given the agreement between producing and refining companies. However, the companies say that this agreement expires when international oil prices rise above USD 70 per barrel. [Under the current agreement with a price of oil of USD 70 per barrel, oil companies can sell to the domestic market at USD 45 per barrel, while they can export at USD 47.6 per barrel.] According to press reports, non-integrated refining companies (such as Esso and Shell) are asking the GOA to reach a new agreement since the oil increase is hurting their potential earnings. An increase in domestic oil prices could undermine the GOA's attempt to control inflation, which is forecasted to increase by 1 percent m-o-m in April. -------------- -------------- Ministry of Planning to take over military manufacturing from the Ministry of Economy. -------------- -------------- ¶22. On April 18, the Senate Defense and Budget Committee approved the bill to transfer "Fabricaciones Militares" (the agency in charge of purchasing and producing national defense arms and equipment) from the Ministry of Economy to the Ministry of Planning. The bill is scheduled for debate at the Senate on May 3 and is expected to be approved. It would be the latest in a string of transfers of resources and authority to Minister of Planning De Vido at the expense of Minister of Economy Felisa Miceli. In another area, the GOA is planning to transfer the Air Regions Command, the Argentine FAA, from the Ministry of Defense to the Secretariat of Transportation in the Ministry of Planning. -------------- -------------- IMF recommends higher utility tariffs and interest rates and a flexible exchange rate. -------------- -------------- ¶23. In its World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) praised Argentina's strong expansion but warned that the GOA should increase utility tariffs, let the peso appreciate and control inflation to avoid damage Argentina's competitiveness. The IMF recommended a combination of higher interest rates and exchange rate flexibility to manage domestic demand pressures and keep inflation under control. The IMF revised upwards its GDP growth estimate from 4.3 percent to 7 percent, while estimating that inflation will reach at 12.9 percent in 2006 and 15 percent in 2007. This revised IMF growth estimate continues to lag behind local growth estimates (see first item above). -------------- -------------- March industrial production index up 7.5 percent y-o- y. -------------- -------------- ¶24. The industrial production index rose 7.5 percent y-o-y in March, in line with market expectations. First quarter growth was 0.5 percent q-o-q. During March, the fastest growing sectors were auto production (up 28 percent),tobacco production (up 16 percent),and minerals (up 17 percent). There was a slight decrease in paper and cardboard (-3.8 percent). The index increased 11.6 percent m-o-m without seasonal adjustment and 0.4 percent m-o-m when seasonally adjusted. The BCRA consensus survey forecasts 6.8 percent industrial production growth for 2006 - a slight upward revision from the previous 6.4 percent forecast. ¶25. The industry-wide capacity utilization index reached 71.6 percent in March, up 1.3 percent over February and just slightly higher than the 71 percent reached in March 2005. The sectors showing the highest capacity utilization were metal based industries (98.8 percent),oil refining (94.0 percent),textiles (80.5 percent),and printing (78.0 percent). The sectors with the lowest capacity utilization were auto production (52.0 percent) and minerals (58.0 percent). -------------- -------------- April Consumer Confidence Index down 9.8 percent m-o- m. -------------- -------------- ¶26. The Consumer Confidence Index -- published by Universidad T. Di Tella - dropped 9.8 percent m-o-m to 54.0 points in April, after reaching its all-time high of 59.9 points in March. The index decreased in all three of its subcomponents: consumer willingness to purchase durable goods and real estate (-13.2 percent m-o-m),consumer sentiment towards the macroeconomic environment (-9.16 percent m-o-m) and negative expectations on individual personal situations (-7.8 percent m-o-m). Despite April's decrease, the index increased 1.7 percent in the first four months of 2006 compared to the same period last year. The index increased 3.4 percent y-o-y. The index is based on surveys of individual economic sentiment and consumer willingness to purchase durable goods, houses and cars. -------------- -------------- Retail sector employees agree to a 19 percent salary increase. -------------- -------------- ¶27. On April 17, Minister of Labor Carlos Tomada announced that retail workers had agreed to a 19 percent wage increase, down from the 28 percent they had demanded at the beginning of negotiations. The increase will be implemented in three installments: 10 percent in April, 5 percent in June and the remaining 4 percent in August. This agreement will benefit 800,000 workers in 180,000 companies, according to press reports. This increase is also in line with recent wage increases for the truckers' union and public sector workers. -------------- -------------- GOA envisions tripling its gas imports from Bolivia in ¶2008. -------------- -------------- ¶28. On April 18, the Minister of Planning Julio De Vido met with Bolivian Vice-president Alvaro Garcia and informed him of the GOA's intention to sign a long- term (30-year) agreement to triple gas imports from Bolivia from the current maximum of 7.7 million cubic meters to almost 23 million cubic meters per day in ¶2008. However, they did not discuss the price to be paid for gas from Bolivia, leaving that discussion for technical officials. The additional gas would be used to supply the proposed USD 1.2 billion north-east gas pipeline (GNEA),which would transport up 20 million cubic meters per day to Argentina's nine northeastern provinces when it reaches full capacity. -------------- -------------- Argentina scores 41 points in a Venture Capital index - behind most Latin American countries. -------------- -------------- ¶29. The Latin American Venture Capital Association (LAVCA) introduced a scorecard on the private equity and venture capital environment for eleven Latin American and Caribbean countries to identify regional strengths and weaknesses. In the scorecard's first release, Argentina scored 41 points (out of a maximum of 100),behind Chile (at 76 points),Brazil (59 points),Mexico (54 points) and Peru (47 points),but slightly ahead of Uruguay, which scored just 40 points. [The main factors that the score takes into account are: laws on venture capital; tax treatment for venture capital; protection of minority shareholder's rights; intellectual property rights; bankruptcy regulation; capital market development; and perceived corruption.] -------------- -------------- IMF denies rumors of the closure of its Buenos Aires office. -------------- -------------- ¶30. On April 18, local press reports quoted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as denying rumors that it will close its Buenos Aires office now that Argentina has prepaid its USD 9.5 billion debt to the IMF at the beginning of the year. The IMF explained that the office is key for better communications between the country and the IMF. The IMF said that Ernesto Ramirez Rigo will head the Buenos Aires office, replacing Andrew Wolfe, who was transferred to Washington before the end of his term. Rigo has been working in the Buenos Aires office as a resident representative. -------------- -------------- Commentary of the Week: "The Style of One of Kirchner's Most Controversial Officials, Moreno, the Tough Guy Who Guards Prices." By Joaquin Morales Sola, translated and edited from an article published on April 23 in La Nacion -------------- -------------- ¶31. Guillermo Moreno believes that he who strikes first strikes twice. Designated yesterday as Secretary of Internal Trade in the Ministry of SIPDIS Economy, his mission will be to provide Nestor Kirchner with a single-digit annual inflation rate ... His first objective: the price of beef. The initial reaction of producers and consigners has been stupefaction, from which they have not yet recovered. ¶32. Moreno, who in his youth was a militant in the most radical wing of the Peronist youth movement ... is an economist who is not ignorant of the textbooks of his specialty. Some would say that he understands it badly, but he understands it. In turn, he is frequently contradictory. He is a fervent devotee of maintaining a fiscal surplus, to the point that he scorns heterodox economists who promote deficit spending, yet his orthodoxy vanishes when he encounters the laws of the marketplace. ¶33. Moreno is convinced that his job is to distrust. He distrusts above all businessmen, whom he considers a condemned race that will injure the common people if governments do not protect and mediate between them. While classical economics tells us that only investment and competition can restrain prices, he is convinced that the club of the State is much more efficient, expedient and overwhelming. ¶34. Kirchner put him where he did because Kirchner has similar convictions. Moreno already told his associates that he will examine each link in the beef production chain and establish the level of profit sufficient for each step in this complicated process. This is not a new thought on his part. He already did this as Secretary of Communications, where he admonished the telephone companies because they had made a lot of money in the 1990's. ¶35. He stopped singing this song when a Spanish executive replied: "We made a lot of money when the national circumstances and the economy were right, which were circumstances created by the Argentine government. So now we have to lose a lot of money because we made a lot before?" Moreno never believed in these arguments, but he saw, in that moment, that he lacked the political support to continue with his offensive. ¶36. He practices the method of attacking first and negotiating afterwards. After various apocalyptic encounters with the telephone companies, he ended up liberalizing the cellular market for them. It was a way of compensating them for the freeze on the price of land line telephones. As a result, the telephone companies have not done badly. ¶37. Another story is about the abuse he heaps on executives and businessmen who meet with him. One group of executives from one of the principal telephone companies had to endure a statement by Moreno that was so aggressive and scatological (impossible to recount here within the bounds of good taste) that one of them later fainted. ¶38. Moreno only believes in the experience of men in their 50's or 60's. He demands that those businessmen who have not reached that age show him the palms of their hands or the soles of their shoes. "There aren't calluses on these hands. You can't run a business that way," he said to one. He reproached another one with "those shoes aren't worn. You aren't capable of leading a company." ¶39. He has no pity with heretics from Kirchnerismo. Two years ago, at an IDEA seminar, he heard an executive of a telephone company call for creating the conditions needed to attract investment to Argentina. "This discussion is in opposition to the Government!" he exploded. He demanded that the company remove the executive in question immediately. The executive left his position a few hours later. ¶40. The most instructive anecdote of all is about Moreno's meeting with the National Communications Commission, an entity made up of government delegates from around the country. When he arrived for the meeting, Moreno pulled a pistol out of his belt and put it down on the table. "He did it naturally, as if it was a cellphone," said one of the stupefied witnesses. Intimidation or just the swagger of power? No one knows. His own boss, Minister Julio De Vido, refers to him, to other people, as "the Crazy" ("El Loco"). "What does the Crazy think about this issue?" asks the minister, and everyone knows that he is referring to Moreno. ¶41. This brand new official of the Ministry of Economy also insists that the bodyguards of ministers, who are members of the Federal Police but wear civilian dress, stand to attention for him. "You are police officers?" he asks. "Yes," they reply. "Then stand to attention for me, because I am a Secretary of the Government." Police in civilian dress are not required to stand to attention for anyone. ¶42. Moreno admires the economic experience of the first Peron administration, and surrounds himself with economists who think along similar lines, such as Eduardo Curia. In Moreno's old offices in the Ministry of Planning, this team managed to disrupt even the celebrated, Buddha-like composure of former Economy Minister Lavagna. ¶43. Since Kirchner came to power, Moreno has struggled against wind and tide to bring Argentina into an axis with Venezuela and Bolivia. This is his cosmic vision of the world and Argentina. While other ministers (such as Foreign Minister Taiana, among others) have doubts about the institutional management of Hugo Chavez, Moreno ignores these naysayers and remains enchanted by the state nationalism, with a populist bias, of the talkative strongman from Caracas. Chavez is, for Moreno, the model of a South American leader given the current and historical conditions in the region. ¶44. In dealing with public service companies in the past, Moreno had to restrain his aggression to insults in most cases. These companies have to get along with the government, but they also usually have the protection of important foreign governments. His mistreatment of Spanish businessmen finally forced the Argentine ambassador in Madrid, Carlos Bettini, to complain to his friend Kirchner. The ambassador also complained about other officials of the Planning Ministry. ¶45. Now, Moreno has to deal with private businesses that, in principle, aren't dependent on the state, but who also lack, in many cases, any foreign protection. How will Moreno be in this process? "He'll be the same. First he will attack and then he will negotiate. First he will choose an enemy, then he will knock him down, and later he will cut a deal with his successor," suggested an official who knows him well. He has the face and mannerisms of a tough guy and, if any doubt remains, he always has an arrogant remark ready to confirm it. ¶46. He began being himself. In recent days, he called private businessmen, at the ridiculous hour of 6:30 AM, to advise them that they cannot raise prices without notifying him in advance. "Don't even think about raising prices unless I know about it beforehand," he warns. ¶47. Lavagna built a concrete wall around the Ministry of Economy to keep Moreno out. Felisa Miceli had another candidate to be Secretary ... (who, perhaps, would not have been much better than Moreno),but she decided to accede to the President's decision. A vapor of weakness has surrounded Miceli since De Vido took charge of the major economic responsibilities. Moreno only listens to De Vido, his mentor and godfather. ¶48. His loyalty to De Vido is so great that he once called an important public service business and demanded that it withdraw a newspaper advertising campaign that did not paint the minister in a flattering manner. "Let me be perfectly clear: not one centimeter of this advertising or you will never speak with me again," he warned. ¶49. But Kirchner always prefers mute loyalty and obedience to any presumption of political or intellectual independence. This is why his most recent appointments have not lacked a certain eccentricity. His cabinet is, increasingly, a sea of conformity and meekness. Is there a problem in the country? Are beef prices rising, for example? In such moments, the entire cabinet automatically looks to the President, hoping that the recurrent and destructive idea of doing something new will come to him. (Note: We reproduce selected articles by local experts for the benefit of our readers. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, not of the Embassy. End Note.) GUTIERREZ