ARGENTINA: LEADING KIRCHNER STRATEGIST ON POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUENOS AIRES 000902 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AMBASSADORS TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO NSC FOR DAN FISK TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE USCINCSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: LEADING KIRCHNER STRATEGIST ON POLITICS AND 2007 ELECTIONS REF: A. 05 BUENOS AIRES 00877 ¶B. 05 BUENOS AIRES 01530 ¶C. 05 BUENOS AIRES 02882 ¶D. BUENOS AIRES 00887 Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: DCM and POLOFF (notetaker) met April 18 with Juan Carlos Mazzon, President Nestor Kirchner's primary political campaign strategist. The DCM noted the overall positive nature of the bilateral relationship and took the opportunity to highlight our concerns on Venezuela. Mazzon said that inflation was the greatest challenge the GOA was facing and that Guillermo Moreno's recent appointment as the anti-inflation czar brought benefits and concerns. With regards to the 2007 elections, Mazzon said he thought Kirchner would run for reelection, although Kirchner would decide the issue personally sometime before January 2007. He said Cristina Kirchner's role in 2007 had not yet been decided. Mazzon said that President Kirchner would not hold internal party elections to vote for a new PJ President this year, nor would he try to hold the national elections before October 2007. On regional issues, Mazzon thought Chile was key to ensuring gas supplies from Bolivia and that an Ollanta Humala win in the Peruvian presidential elections would greatly complicate regional relations. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) DCM and POLOFF (notetaker) met April 18 with Juan Carlos Mazzon, President Nestor Kirchner's primary political campaign strategist, as part of an ongoing dialogue the DCM maintains with this key Kirchner advisor (Reftels A-C). Carlos Mazzon, whose Casa Rosada office is close to President Kirchner's, was the chief architect of Kirchner's strategy in the October 2005 elections and is intimately involved in developing plans for the 2007 presidential and legislative elections. -------------- Bilateral Relations & GOA Policy on Inflation -------------- ¶3. (C) The DCM opened the discussion by reviewing the U.S.-Argentine relationship. The DCM noted the positive overall nature of the bilateral relationship, highlighting the good cooperation on counternarcotics, counterproliferation, and counterterrorism issues. The DCM also took the opportunity to raise our concerns with regards to Venezuela, particularly in light of President Hugo Chavez's recent actions and mistreatment of U.S. Ambassador Brownfield (Reftel D). The DCM said that Washington would be closely watching the upcoming UN vote on future Security Council members and hoped that Argentina would support Guatemala's candidacy over Venezuela's. For his part, Carlos Mazzon also underscored the numerous areas in which the two governments were cooperating. ¶4. (C) Turning to domestic issues, Mazzon said that inflation is the greatest challenge the GOA is facing and that Guillermo Moreno's recent appointment as the anti-inflation czar brought benefits and concerns. Mazzon said that the negotiations over beef prices have been particularly difficult. Mazzon acknowledged that price controls were not a long-term solution and that only more investment would enable Argentina to overcome inflation problems. Mazzon said that Guillermo Moreno was a good negotiator and the right person to deal with the beef producers. However, he felt that Moreno's appointment represented a weakening of the Ministry of the Economy, which he felt was not good. Mazzon said that the imposition of someone from outside of the Ministry in such a high profile role would reduce the role of Minister of the Economy Felisa Miceli. He thought that the weakness of Miceli and her ministry presented risks for Kirchner, as all the blame for future economic problems would fall squarely on the President. -------------- The 2007 Elections BUENOS AIR 00000902 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶5. (C) With regards to the 2007 elections, Mazzon said he thought Kirchner would run for reelection, although Kirchner would decide the issue personally sometime before January ¶2007. He said the presidential elections would be held in October 2007, as Kirchner does not want to appear weak by moving up the elections like Alfonsin and Duhalde did during times of crisis. Mazzon also said that making a constitutional case for moving up the elections would be difficult. Mazzon was confident that Kirchner would easily win reelection. ¶6. (C) Mazzon thought Kirchner's main opponents in 2007 would be the center-right Republican Proposal (PRO) and a center-left alliance of Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) Elisa Carrio and the Radical Civic Union (UCR). Mazzon thought that PRO's Mauricio Macri would likely decide to run for President. Mazzon thought Ricardo Lopez Murphy or even Vice President Daniel Scioli might be PRO's candidate for Mayor of Buenos Aires. He did not think Lopez Murphy would align himself with his old party, the UCR, due to ideological differences, although he did feel Elisa Carrio would do so. Mazzon said Kirchner's current favorite to be his candidate in the Buenos Aires mayoral race is former Minister of the Economy Roberto Lavagna. When asked about Scioli's chances of becoming Kirchner's mayoral candidate, Mazzon said they were very limited. Mazzon did not mention current Mayor Jorge Telerman in terms of the Casa Rosada's strategy for the Buenos Aires mayoral race. ¶7. (C) When asked about Senator and First Lady Cristina Kirchner, Mazzon said that her role in 2007 had not yet been decided. While acknowledging that the First Lady would be the only logical second choice if President Kirchner decides to not run for reelection, Mazzon felt that reelection was the logical course of action. Mazzon said that Cristina Kirchner might be President Kirchner's candidate to become the next Governor of Buenos Aires province, but added that the President was just as likely to pick a lesser-known candidate. Mazzon acknowledged that Cristina Kirchner had assumed a reduced public role since December 2005, which he said was more akin to her role before she became a candidate in Buenos Aires province. He did not address the rumors that have been rampant in the local press over the last month that President Kirchner and the First Lady are in conflict and virtually separated. ¶8. (C) Mazzon said President Kirchner would likely pick either someone outside of the Peronist Party (PJ) or a PJ Governor from a small province as his vice presidential running mate in 2007. He said that Kirchner would try to ensure that no rivals develop from within the PJ that could challenge him in the future, paying particular attention to his choices for Vice President and Governor of Buenos Aires province with this in mind. ¶9. (C) Mazzon said that Kirchner would continue to use the Victory Front (FPV) -- which he described as nothing more than a political coalition -- to foster useful political alliances with non-PJ political forces. Mazzon said that Kirchner was the de facto head of the PJ, but the FPV label made it easier for Kirchner to cement alliances with other political leaders, such as several UCR Governors, who would be unwilling to incorporate themselves into the PJ. ¶10. (C) Mazzon said that President Kirchner would not hold internal party elections to vote for a new PJ President this year. He said that Kirchner does not want to demonstrate disunity in the PJ while he is dealing with sensitive issues like controlling inflation. Mazzon felt it would be better to hold the PJ elections at the beginning of next year as a way to kick off the election campaign season. Mazzon added that the PJ did not need a national direction, as the party is largely composed of provincial PJ parties that are well run on the local level. BUENOS AIR 00000902 003 OF 003 ¶11. (C) Looking towards post-2007 elections, Mazzon said President Kirchner would be more "sensible" and have more experience. -------------- Regional Politics -------------- ¶12. (C) On regional issues, Mazzon thought Chile was key to ensuring gas supplies from Bolivia and that an Ollanta Humala win in the Peruvian presidential elections would greatly complicate regional relations. Mazzon said that if Chile could work out an agreement with Bolivia on its access to the sea -- resolving a sensitive national issue that has seriously affected Bolivia's ability to export its gas -- Argentina and other countries in the region would have a much easier time reaching an energy agreement with Bolivia. Mazzon said he thought Humala would lose the run-off election in Peru. If Humala was elected, however, he felt regional relations, especially between Chile and Bolivia, would be greatly complicated. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) The 2007 elections are a long way off, and any speculation on the "official" candidates is still contingent on the final decision of President Kirchner. When those decisions are made, Carlos Mazzon will be main person behind the scenes developing and implementing the electoral strategy. Mazzon's closeness to the President makes his comments on Kirchner's current mindset on the elections valuable. Mazzon has differed with Kirchner in the past, for example when he urged Kirchner to maintain his alliance with former President Eduardo Duhalde last year. However, Mazzon was quick to get behind the official line once the decision was made to break with Duhalde, preserving his role in the Casa Rosada. Mazzon is a masterful political operative that has served three Peronist Presidents -- Menem, Duhalde, and now Kirchner. We will continue our dialogue with him as we begin to look toward the 2007 presidential elections. GUTIERREZ