MEDIA REACTION THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF THE WAR

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000649

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF THE WAR
ON IRAQ IRAN MIDDLE EAST GLOBAL WARMING US-URUGUAYAN
FTA AL JAZEERA SIGNAL IN LATIN AMERICA AND PRESS
FREEDOM UN HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL 03/20/06



1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Weekend newspapers lead with the third anniversary of
the war on Iraq; anti-war demonstrations in different
countries of the world; half a million protesters
taking to the streets across France to demand the
scrapping of a new law that could erode job security;
Al Fatah leaders demanding Abbas to resign; UN war
crimes tribunal ruling out Milosevic's poisoning; and
a former Iraqi PM's statement that Iraq was already
embroiled in civil war. Leading "Clarin" carries a
column written by former US Secretary of State Henry
Kissinger, headlined "India and the US are bringing
their positions closer," in which he underscores that
"India's expected cooperation with the US will be
beneficial for the entire world." Daily-of-record "La
Nacion" reports that "Controversial TV network Al-
Jazeera will open two offices in Latin America - one
in Argentina and one in Venezuela."


2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES

- "The US is seeking the 'least negative' way out of
Iraq"

Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading
"Clarin," opines (03/18) "... Washington has just
announced its decision to hold talks with Iran,
nothing less... in order to see whether the two
countries can cooperate in reducing violence in Iraq.
The Iranian government is a Shiite Islamic theocracy,
and it has heavy influence on most Iraqi
organizations... Tehran said it is willing to meet
with USG representatives...

"... This decision was made during the same week Bush
signed a national security order in which he singled
out Iran as the main enemy of US global security
interests...

"Perhaps, one should interpret the latest developments
as an initial symptom that the Republican
administration has understood that the occupation of
Iraq cannot continue without a deadline, and that,
beyond the military power, the situation is troubled
enough to justify holding talks, perhaps even
negotiations with an Iran that is often defined as an
enemy."

- "Efforts"

Paula Lugones, international columnist of leading
"Clarin," comments (03/20) "Yesterday, George W. Bush
celebrated the third anniversary of 'the beginning of
freedom in Iraq'... Donald Rumsfeld wrote that
terrorism seems to be retreating in Iraq. And the USG
spent the day denying that there is a civil war in
Iraq.

"All this is a big effort of the White House in front
of an audience that is increasingly mistrustful.
According to a Pew Research Center opinion survey, 43%
of Americans believe today that the US will fail in
Iraq... And, while Bush is determined to show he has
everything under control, 70% believe the president
lacks a plan to put an end to this war that is getting
out of his control."

- "Washington warns again about the Venezuela-Iran
axis"

Conservative "La Prensa" reports (03/30) "The White
House reiterated yesterday its concern over the
progress made in Venezuelan-Iranian ties...

"US Ambassador to Caracas William Brownfield insisted
that the Islamic Republic 'is currently a major
strategic security concern for us, and common sense
dictates that any country linked to Tehran to a
certain degree is part of that concern.'

"According to Brownfield, 'No one should be surprised
if my government, which feels threatened by some
policies and decisions of Iran, takes these ties into
account when drafting its national security



strategy.'"

- "Iraq, on the verge of civil war"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (03/20) "Three
years after the beginning of the US offensive in Iraq,
the specter of a civil war hangs over the country,
which is combined with violence and poverty and where,
according to former Iraqi interim PM Iyad Allawi, the
situation is verges on the 'point of no-return.'

"While thousands of people took to the streets in
several countries to protest the war, the White
House's top brass defended the USG's policy in Iraq
and said that a withdrawal of US troops would be the
same as returning 'post-war Germany to the Nazis.'"

- "The US denies that Iraq is on the verge of civil
war"

Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" (03/20) reports
"On the eve of the third anniversary of the launching
of the US-led invasion of Iraq, an international
controversy was unleashed yesterday over whether civil
war exists in the Arab country.

"Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
sustained in a The Washington Post column that leaving
Iraq now would be like returning post-war Germany to
the Nazis again.

"During an interview with the BBC, former Iraqi PM
Iyad Alawi underscored that 'If this is not civil war,
then God knows what civil war is.' 'We are losing an
average of at least 50-60 people every day all over
the country.' Iraq is heading for the 'point of no
return' in which 'it will collapse into pieces and
sectarianism will spread all through the region.'"

- "Bush, Napoleon and bayonets"

Centrist newspaper "Perfil" carries an opinion piece
by Rosendo Fraga, political analyst and head of Centro
de Estudios Nueva Mayoria, who opines (03/19) "Three
years after the invasion of Iraq, the US-led military
operation was a direct success in the sense that,
against most predictions, regular Iraqi troops were
defeated.

"Politically, a democratic government was established
after elections...

"In parallel, the operation has meant a failure
regarding the governability of the country, which is
beleaguered by escalating violence.

"... The most similar conflict to this is the European
religious war of the 16th century between Catholics
and Protestants... This conflict has a huge
destabilizing impact. Iran, the biggest enemy of the
US, has a Shiite majority and, therefore, in this
conflict, it is an ally of those ruling Iraq, who are
Washington's allies. The risk is that this conflict
could spread to Islamic countries.

"In conclusion, three years after its invasion, Iraq
confirms that the efficacy of military power, if it is
not accompanied by a political, cultural, historic and
religious view, reminds us of Napoleon's phrase that
bayonets serve all purposes but for sitting on them."

- "Hamas presents its Cabinet and Israel increases its
pressure on it"

Telma Luzzani, on special assignment in Jerusalem for
leading "Clarin," writes (03/20) "Nothing fuels
optimism in the Middle East. Just a few minutes after
the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, delivered the list
of future members of his Cabinet to the president of
the Palestinian Authority, Abu Mazen, for his
consideration, the Israeli government reiterated that
'it will reject any contact with a Hamas' terrorist
government.

"It is a dead-end ally of hard resolution because the



leading actors in this drama (Hamas, Abu Mazen,
Israel) have little maneuvering margin.

"... Economic asphyxiation is another measure of
pressure that the West and Israel are wielding on
Hamas. Yesterday, the UN released a report warning of
a possible 'humanitarian crisis.'"

- "UK's long-range nuke plan"

Gwynne Dyer, columnist of liberal, English-language
"Buenos Aires Herald," writes (03/20) "Last November,
when Britain was having a public debate about the
government's intention to proceed with a whole new
generation of nuclear weapons that would last the
country into the mid-21st century, I wrote a column in
which I mocked Defense Secretary John Reid for not
even knowing why he wanted the weapons... I think I
owe him an apology. I think I now understand why he
wanted the nuclear weapons, and why he was not willing
to get specific about it...

"The new estimates of the Inter-Governmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) for global warming during the
21st century range from a minimum of 2 degrees C to a
maximum of 5.8 degrees. The planet has not been that
hot since the start of the Eocene era 55 million years
ago...

"These revised estimates are very bad news for most
countries. If you are Spanish or Brazilian or Thai -
or a US citizen, for that matter - most or all of your
country is going to turn into a desert unless we all
cut CO2 emissions radically starting yesterday.
Indeed, at least two-thirds of the world's existing
farmland would become sterile, and billions would have
to move or die.

"These estimates will have no immediate impact in the
US, where disbelief in climate change is still
strong... President Bush's principal adviser on these
matters, James Connaughton, recently expressed the
view that we may be able to double the atmospheric
concentration of CO2, perhaps even triple or quadruple
it, without changing the climate (Physics and
chemistry work differently on his planet). But
elsewhere, some governments are paying close attention
to the implications of all this."

- "Uruguay abandons the idea of reaching a deal with
the US"

Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" (03/20) reports
"Making a contribution to Brazil rather than to
Argentina, and with certain disappointment with the
Bush administration, Uruguayan President Tabare
Vazquez asserted last week to Lula that he will
abandon the idea of reaching an FTA with the US. This
happened in the framework of Vazquez's official visit
to Brasilia, in which Uruguay got certain support for
the pulp mills issue.

"... According to Vazquez, only the delayed investment
agreement is pending, whereby US capitals will receive
special treatment in Uruguay.

"The reason for Uruguay's abandonment of an FTA with
the US is that the US proposal to increase Uruguayan
exports and annual sales had little impact. The US
would not be willing to open its markets of maize,
meat, wheat, dairy products, cheese and textiles much
more than today. However, in order to reach a deal,
the US asked Uruguay to liberalize its industrial and
service imports and to abandon Mercosur in no more
than 10 years.

"Seemingly, the lack willingness to bring together the
positions between the two countries was what made
Vazquez abandon the idea of reaching an FTA with the
US."

- "Debate reappears on limits on press freedom"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (03/18) "Termed



for years as an alternative, minor and opposition news
channel, Al-Jazeera was focused on the Arab world.
However, the announcement that it will launch its
international signal in English revived a debate in
the US on the limits of press freedom, business
pressures, and patriotism.

"... Before the September 11 attacks, the USG praised
its role as an independent channel in the Middle East,
and companies like General Motors and Procter and
Gamble advertised on it.

"... The Bush administration accused it of spreading
terrorist propaganda, with videos of Osama bin Laden
and other Al Qaeda leaders... US President George W.
Bush termed Al Jazeera and other media as 'hateful
propaganda' from the Middle East.

"Since early 2005, the current US Secretary of State,
Condoleezza Rice, and other high-ranking USG officials
have chosen another strategy -using Al Jazeera to
carry their message to the region. But, in private,
criticism and pressures continue.

"Al Jazeera editors responded that they only do their
job and recalled that in the Arab world, US mass media
are seen as pro-US and based on biases against
Muslims."


3. EDITORIALS

- "The UN and human rights"

An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (03/20) "With
majority support, which included our country's, and
the US opposition, the UN General Assembly approved
the creation of the Human Rights Council, which will
succeed the UN Human Rights Committee.

"... During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union
always supported the denunciation of human rights
violations in antagonistic countries and vetoed those
initiatives related to their own sphere of influence.

"... The UN Human Rights Committee has always been a
sounding board for these kinds of situations in which
the rights of peoples were trodden by their
governments.

"The succeeding Human Rights Council will have to
overcome the Committee's main shortfalls and avoid
becoming an intervention tool that breaks all
principles of judicial equality among States. It will
have to issue international initiatives aimed at
protecting human rights regardless of geo-political or
economic interests."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

The Media Reaction Report reflects articles and
opinions by the cited news media and do not
necessarily reflect U.S. Embassy policy or views. The
Public Affairs Section does not independently verify
information. The report is intended for internal U.S.
Government use only.

GUTIERREZ