MEDIA REACTION IRAN CHILE US-BOLIVIAN TIES

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000595 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION IRAN CHILE US-BOLIVIAN TIES 03/14/06 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Key international stories today cover US President George W. Bush's alleged plan to destabilize Iran; the possible impact of a hypothetical pre-emptive attack against Iran; Argentine President Nestor Kirchner receiving Haitian president-elect Rene Garcia Preval, who thanked him for Argentina's participation in the UN peacekeeping force in Haiti; Chilean President- elect Michele Bachelet's inheritance and future; and Bolivian President Evo Morales' need for "avoiding unnecessary confrontations with the US." ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES - "Bush's plan to destabilize Iran" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (03/14) "The Bush administration has launched a diplomatic, political and financial campaign during the last few months in order to wear down and, if possible, destabilize Iran's toughest political and religious leaders as part of its strategy to prevent the Iranian theocratic regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. "According to The Washington Post, the USG's plan consists of increasing international pressure on the UN Security Council, strengthening the US diplomatic presence in Iran's neighboring countries, and financing the Iranian opposition and civil society. "Just seven hours after this investigation was published, US President George W. Bush accused Iran of promoting terrorism. He sustained that Iran is contributing to destabilizing Iraq by providing insurgent troops with explosives that will enable them to attack the US troops deployed there since the 2003 invasion and Iraqi civilians." - "The effects of a pre-emptive attack against Tehran" Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," writes (03/14) "Gwynne Dyer, Canadian military historian, summarized what most analysts believe would be the unavoidable consequences of a pre- emptive attack against Iran from the US and/or Israel. "The list is impressive - he predicted an overall rebellion against the US intervention in Iraq led by a Shiite majority and a global economic crisis as a consequence of an abrupt interruption in the flow of Iranian oil to the market, which could bring the price to some 120 dollars. Dwyer does not believe, as others do, that Tehran will attempt to block the Ormuz Strait, which is strategic in the international oil route, because if it does, it would invite the US to militarily occupy its Northern border... "... The US high-ranking military often leak to the US media their restlessness every time Washington's rhetoric escalates on the Iran issue... Military sources have warned that today no one is sure about Iran's capability for manufacturing nuclear bombs... "... In this framework, does it make sense to embark on a new armed conflict when the Iranian bomb would not be made before George W. Bush leaves the White House for good? More than a few analysts agree that for Bush to embark on an armed conflict it is not necessary for Iran to have the bomb or be close to having it, but that the White House feels that Iran could disregard the US demand and escape any consequences whatsoever." - "Bachelet's inheritance" Rodrigo Orihuela, columnist of liberal, English- language "Buenos Aires Herald," comments (03/149 "... The main problem Lagos left for his former health and defense minister to solve is Chile's famed and once- admired privatized pension system, crudely imitated by Argentina as from 1994 and lauded by US President George W. Bush as recently as 2004. "Socialist doctor Bachelet placed the reform of the scheme at the core of her campaign platform, as did her rightist rivals. "... On the upside, Bachelet is handed an economy with growing exports and a positive balance of payments... "The auspicious Chilean balance of payments may well serve the cause of other Latin American leaders eager to strengthen ties with the US, such as Peru's Alejandro Toledo, who met with Bush in Washington the day before he went to Bachelet's inauguration. "... A debate could well center on why neither the model Latin American leftist administration nor the best-known rightist government in the region have worked towards building a strong industrial structure." ¶3. EDITORIALS - "Consensus for change in Bolivia" An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (03/14) "During the last few years, a confrontation among Bolivia's political forces has added to the country's serious economic and social problems, which made governments fall and made apparent the inability of its leaders to reach fundamental consensus... This chaos found a way out through the conclusive majority that brought Evo Morales to power... "As a matter of fact, the (Bolivian) Congress has just approved to call a Constituent Assembly and a referendum to make progress on autonomies... "... These are ways in which the country is seeking to reach consensus based on the acknowledgment of its multiple cultures, indigenous identity and diverse regional interests. Based on this new constitutional pact, Bolivia should find a production model that can improve the living conditions of its inhabitants and pave the way for political stability. This calls for encouraging both local and foreign investment and avoiding unnecessary confrontations with the US." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires The Media Reaction Report reflects articles and opinions by the cited news media and do not necessarily reflect U.S. Embassy policy or views. The Public Affairs Section does not independently verify information. The report is intended for internal U.S. Government use only. GUTIERREZ