ARGENTINA POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR FEBRUARY 24

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000451 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC, AND INR/R, NSC FOR NILMINI GUNARATNE, AND DEL RENIGAR TREASURY FO A/S QUARLES, DAS LEE, DAVID DRYSDALE, RAMIN USDOC FOR ALEXANDER PEACHER SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR FEBRUARY 24 REF: A. (05) BUENOS AIRES 0008 ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 346 ¶C. BUENOS AIRES 407 ¶1. (U) Reftels and other Mission reporting available at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires ¶2. (U) TABLE OF CONTENTS: -- Paco Use Increases Among Argentine Adolescents -- Ibarra Impeachment Update -- Las Heras Truce Wearing Thin -- Argentina Seeks Dialogue with Uruguay but Prepared for The Hague -------------- - Paco Use Increases Among Argentine Adolescents -------------- - ¶3. (U) On February 19, The Argentine newspaper of record La Nacion reported a 200% increase in the use of the narcotic paco among youth between the ages of 12 and 18 since 2001. (NOTE: the article did not provide a referent to youth use rates in 2001, Post has requested a copy of the SEDRONAR report upon which the article was based in order to determine the actual scope of the reported increase. END NOTE.) Paco, coca base mixed with toxic chemicals, is a relatively inexpensive and extremely addictive drug similar to crack. Like crack, it is usually smoked, but unlike crack its effects fade rapidly, requiring addicts to use the drug repeatedly to retain the "high." Paco costs only 1 peso (1/3 of a U.S. dollar) a dose, but as the effects do not last addicts frequently take 30 to 100 doses a day. Due to its low per-dose cost, paco has been seen primarily as a narcotic of choice for the urban poor living in the slums surrounding the capital. Many indigent youth addicts claim that they started using the drug as an appetite suppressant to ward off hunger, which may explain why it has become more popular with this demographic group than marijuana as also claimed by the La Nacion article. The article reflects recent indications that non-indigent youth are also experimenting with paco in growing numbers. ¶4. (SBU) Nicolas Dapena, an official with the national agency responsible for narcotics prevention and treatment SEDRONAR, informed POLOFF that the basic information in the La Nacion article was correct, but he could not confirm that the increase in paco use was actually 200% in the last 4 years. He confirmed that the La Nacion article was based upon a recent SEDRONAR study into use and abuse trends in the Buenos Aires area and that these findings should not be extrapolated to the nation as a whole. He opined that the actual percentage increase in the drug,s popularity was hard to determine due to the fact that many of the users were marginalized young people who tended to avoid contact with authorities. He confirmed that paco was doubly dangerous because it was highly addictive and that there was no one formula for creating it. He said that the damage caused by paco depended on what mix of various chemicals the maker had available, and that addicts often did not know or care what chemical compounds were used to make the particular dose they were taking. Dapena added that unlike other drugs such as cocaine, heroin and marijuana, SEDRONAR did not keep seizure statistics on paco, but he was certain that seizures had increased greatly in recent years. Dapena agreed with POLOFF that SEDRONAR needed to begin tracking paco seizure statistics and promised to provide seizure figures as soon as they became available. -------------- Ibarra Impeachment Update -------------- ¶5. (U) The long and contentious impeachment proceedings against suspended Buenos Aires Mayor Anibal Ibarra are in their final weeks. Local sources indicate that a verdict will likely come on March 10, although the city legislature set a deadline of March 14. The proceedings stem from the December 30, 2004 fire at the Cromagnon nightclub in which 190 people were killed (Reftel A). While others, including the club owner and the band playing that night have been indicted, family members of the victims pin the blame for the tragedy squarely on Ibarra and have been the driving force behind the impeachment effort, in some instances threatening family members of legislators who would dare to vote against Ibarra,s impeachment. ¶6. (U) With the proceeding drawing to a close the embattled Mayor has begun to step up his public appearances and marshal support from a wide sector of the public including politicians, civic groups, and celebrities. Ibarra announced plans for a march and rally at the Plaza de Mayo on March 2 where he will no doubt hammer home his message that the impeachment proceedings have "exceeded all limits," and represent "political opportunism like none that has been seen anywhere in the world." Ibarra has reason to be optimistic. Polls indicate that 60 - 70 percent of the people do not believe he should be impeached and Deputy Gerardo Romagnoli recently tried to recuse himself from the proceedings after claiming that the entire process had been a "circus." Perhaps more importantly, newspapers have recently published photographs of Ibarra and a smiling President Kirchner who was quoted as referring to Ibarra as "my friend." This was seen by those familiar with Kirchner's style as a signal to the three "Kirchnerista" deputies who are part of the legislative commission deciding Ibarra's fate to vote against impeachment. If these three deputies vote against impeachment they would insure Ibarra's acquittal. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Kirchner's support for Ibarra is more likely a strategic political decision than a willingness to expend political capital for a "friend." It has been widely assumed that Kirchner wants to place his own man in the Mayor's chair in 2007 and he may feel his choice will stand a better chance if he does not have to compete with Vice Mayor Jorge Telerman who has been an effective and popular stand-in as the head of the city government since Ibarra's suspension. End Comment. -------------- Las Heras Truce Wearing Thin -------------- ¶8. (U) Dissident oil and gas workers announced a return to protests in Las Heras, where they will be joined in solidarity by various piquetero leaders from Buenos Aires, to demand the withdrawal of 300 gendarmes from Santa Cruz. This call for renewed union activity comes shortly after a march led by the widow of the police officer killed during the storming of a provincial police station (Reftel B). The march was organized in an effort to demand justice and included family members of police, teachers and local business owners. Noticeably absent from the march were any members of the oil and gas unions or businesses. These events have left the city divided into two camps, one supporting striking workers and the other supporting the investigation into the police officer,s death. After two weeks of a tense truce, largely enforced by the gendarmes, this latest call to protest has increased the conflictive atmosphere in Las Heras. ¶9. (U) Meanwhile, speculation is increasing that the judge investigating the death of police officer will make arrests in the coming days. Reports are that there is enough evidence to arrest at least four suspects. There have been at least two witnesses that have testified thus far, although several additional witnesses are reportedly reluctant to come forward. Local press reports that sources in the Casa Rosada admit that President Kirchner has an interest in protecting his image by assuring that there is not an unnecessary delay in the investigation. -------------- -------------- Argentina Seeks Dialogue with Uruguay but Prepares for The Hague -------------- -------------- ¶10. (U) Both houses of the Argentine Congress have backed the decision to take the case of the paper mills at Fray Bentos, Uruguay to the International Court at the Hague if necessary (Reftel C). In the Senate discussions on Wednesday, several senators denounced Uruguay,s paper mills saying that they will be using polluting technology that will be prohibited in the European Union by 2007. Senator Terragro proposed a three-part strategy for dealing with the conflict. He advocated first exhausting all diplomatic negotiations, then creating a congressional commission to deal with the issue, and as a last resort, an appeal to The Hague. In the Lower House deputies called for negotiations with Uruguay, and made demands for Uruguay to cease work on the mills, claiming Uruguay was in violation of the Uruguay River Treaty of 1975 which calls for mutual consultation on any project affecting the river. ¶11. (U) For now, citizens in Entre Rios say that the third and final bridge open between Argentina and Uruguay at Concordia will not be blocked as previously threatened. Some 50 people gathered at the bridge this week, but did not entirely stop traffic. The two other international bridges, at Gualeguaychu and Colon, remained blocked. Argentine press reports that the Government of Uruguay will take up the issue of the roadblocks with MERCOSUR on the basis that it is a violation of free circulation and amounts to an illegal economic blockade. Reportedly the GOU has requested negotiations with Argentina, and is looking for Kirchner to intervene and stop the roadblocks. Uruguayan President Vazquez has sent a foreign ministry official to Washington to inform the OAS Secretary General of the roadblocks and to argue that they are a violation of the Inter-American Declaration of Human Rights and Mercosur rules which provide for the free circulation of persons and commerce. ¶12. (U) Though both governments profess a willingness to negotiate, the different international bodies they are seeking to engage on this issue illustrate the very different concerns of each country. Argentina has chosen to stress the environmental impacts with International Court, while Uruguay sees the issue as one of international trade and transportation more applicable to the MERCOSUR trade union. GUTIERREZ