ARGENTINA POLITICAL ROUNDUP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BUENOS AIRES 000407 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC, AND INR/R, NSC FOR NILMINI GUNARATNE, AND DEL RENIGAR TREASURY FO A/S QUARLES, DAS LEE, DAVID DRYSDALE, RAMIN USDOC FOR ALEXANDER PEACHER SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA POLITICAL ROUNDUP REF: BUENOS AIRES 346 ¶1. (U) Reftels and other Mission reporting available at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires ¶2. (U) TABLE OF CONTENTS: -- Ambassador Meets with New MFA International Security Director -- Rumors of Kirchner Cabinet Changes -- Paper Mill Dispute: Blockage of Bridges into Uruguay Continues, Expands -- Santa Cruz Labor Conflict Calmer but Continues -- Meeting with Kirchner Insider -------------- -------------- AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH NEW MFA INTERNATIONAL SECURITY DIRECTOR -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) The Ambassador hosted a lunch February 15 for the MFA,s new Director of International Security, Ambassador Elsa Kelly, (who recently served as Argentina,s representative to the IAEA in Vienna),and members of Kelly's staff. Kelly is a long-time, experienced diplomat who briefly served as Deputy Foreign Minister under President Raul Alfonsin. Her office covers all of the major security issues (except for counter-terrorism),including military deployments and exercises, peacekeeping, nonproliferation, and nuclear energy cooperation. The Ambassador highlighted our interests in these areas such as Iran, Haiti, the Additional Protocol, the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI),the Megaports Initiative, peacekeeping operations, and joint military exercises. On PSI, Kelly said the GOA would like to send a delegation to the April 11-12 Operational Experts Group meeting in Miami. (Reported septel.) -------------- MEETING WITH KIRCHNER INSIDER -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On February 17, the DCM and Poloff paid a courtesy call on new Deputy Secretary of the Presidency and long-time Kirchner associate Daniel Varizat. The DCM began by highlighting the importance the U.S. places on the bilateral relationship and took the opportunity to emphasize some of the policy agenda items for 2006: the UN Security Council, Venezuela, Bolivia, and Haiti. Varizat for his part said that the GOA also values the bilateral relationship and that Argentina was not opposed to U.S. leadership as long as it also benefited the region. ¶5. (SBU) Varizat said Kirchner would be focused on the economy in the coming year -- ensuring equitable economic growth, lower unemployment, and keeping inflation in check. Varizat said Kirchner was trying to get as much as possible out of the GOA's current economic model -- building up reserves, keeping a competitive exchanges rate, and maintaining a budget surplus. Varizat said Kirchner would be willing to change this model if the costs started to outweigh the benefits. He said that their biggest long-term concern is Argentina's energy shortage. To solve this problem, Varizat said Argentina is looking to Venezuela and Bolivia. Varizat acknowledged Bolivia under Morales was a question mark for the GOA, although he said they remained in a wait-and-see role, hopeful that Morales will make the right decisions for Bolivia and the region. Comment: Varizat struck us as a practical individual, someone we can work with, but also someone who is completely loyal to Kirchner. End Comment. ¶6. (SBU) Bio Note: Varizat was a National Deputy in Congress before taking his current position, vacated by Carlos Kunkel when Kunkel accepted his seat in Congress last December. Varizat has a relationship with Kirchner that stretches back decades, even before Kirchner entered politics. When Kirchner was first elected Mayor of Rio Gallegos in 1987, he appointed Varizat as his Director General of Public Works and Urbanization. He was later appointed in 1991 as the Under Secretary of the Ministry of Interior of Santa Cruz Province. SIPDIS Between 1995 and 1997, he served as Santa Cruz's Minister of Government. Varizat was elected to the National Senate in 1997, completing his term in 2001. He became a National Deputy in 2003, when he took current Santa Cruz Governor Sergio Acevedo's congressional seat when Acevedo became the head of the Secretariat of State Intelligence (SIDE). -------------- RUMORS OF KIRCHNER CABINET CHANGES -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Argentine press and political analyst circles have been rife with rumors in the past few weeks that President Kirchner is about to initiate a new round of changes to his cabinet. A leading political analyst, quoting sources in the Casa Rosada, recently told Poloff that Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez and Labor Minister Carlos Tomada will be replaced. Deputy Secretary of the Presidency Daniel Varizat was named by this source as the likely replacement for Alberto Fernandez. (Note: Pagina 12, a daily with close ties to the administration, reported recently that Technical and Legal Secretary Carlos Zannini would likely be the new Cabinet Chief. End Note.) Anibal Fernandez was named by the source as the likely replacement for Tomada (who would reportedly be named the Ambassador to Chile),with Secretary for the Presidency Oscar Parrilli moving over to take the helm at the Interior Ministry. The timeframe for the cabinet changes is rumored to be sometime in March. ¶8. (SBU) Kirchner insiders have confirmed Alberto Fernandez's difficult situation, but are guarded on whether the cabinet changes will actually occur. Kirchner's leading finance advisor, Luis Corsiglia, told Econ Couns, Econoff, and Poloff on February 15 that Alberto Fernandez was being blamed for the GOA's poor showing in the Capital in the October elections and has gotten himself into a conflict with Planning Minister Julio De Vido. According to Corsiglia, the conflict with De Vido stemmed from Fernandez's recent trip to Spain with First Lady and Senator Cristina Kirchner, which De Vido saw as Fernandez stepping on his territory. Varizat told the DCM and Poloff on February 17 that he did not foresee cabinet changes in the short-term, although he acknowledged that Kirchner can be guarded, and therefore difficult to read, on issues of this nature. Varizat said that Kirchner does not like to make changes to his set of top advisors. ¶9. (SBU) Comment: The Buenos Aires rumor mill is always active and many times these rumors do not come to fruition, at least in the way in which they were predicted. Kirchner manages key issues like the composition of his cabinet personally and whether there will, in fact, be personnel changes, and who will end up where may be decided days or even hours before the announcement is made. End Comment. -------------- -------------- PAPER MILL DISPUTE: BLOCKAGE OF BRIDGES INTO URUGUAY CONTINUES, EXPANDS -------------- -------------- ¶10. (U) Tensions between Argentina and Uruguay remain high as Argentines residing opposite the proposed location of two Uruguayan paper mills continue high-profile roadblocks on two of the three bridges connecting Uruguay with the Argentine province of Entre Rios. Local residents, aided by Green Peace activists, had been holding on-again off-again roadblocks of the main bridges connecting the two countries for several months to protest the potential environmental impact of the proposed Uruguayan mills to the Uruguay river. In a move to raise the profile of the protest during the high tourism season, the protesters recently launched a 24-hour-a-day roadblock on the most heavily utilized bridge connecting the Argentine city of Gualeguaychu and the Uruguayan city of Fray Bentos. A Gualeguaychu citizens group has voted to continue the roadblock 13 straight days, angering Argentines trying to reach their annual summer holiday beach resorts in Uruguay and prompting growing criticism from the GOU. On February 16, a citizens group from the Argentine City of Colon announced that they would join the protest and commenced a 24-hour a day roadblock of the second most heavily utilized bridge between the countries. ¶11. (U) The GOA originally supported the right of the protestors to block the bridges, but recently has announced its intention of taking the GOU to the World Court to prevent construction of the plants. The GOA has urged the protestors to stop forms of protest that could hurt the Argentine case before the World Court, but to date has shown no willingness to step in and open the bridges. The GOA,s stance toward the protestors is in line with the non-confrontational policies President Kirchner has taken toward most forms of social protest since taking office in 2004. There is no indication that Kirchner will stop the protests, or take any action other than threatening to refer the issue to the World Court. ¶12. (U) GOU officials have increasingly been quoted in the Argentine press regarding the GOU,s right to construct the plants and the economic impact of the roadblocks on a Uruguayan tourism industry that depends on the annual pilgrimage of thousands of Argentine sun worshipers. Recently, GOU officials have stepped up complaints regarding the roadblocks, threatening to refer the issue to MERCOSUR if the GOA takes the issue to the World Court. One GOU official reportedly told the Argentine press that the very real economic impact of the roadblocks to protest possible environmental damage was akin to an old Argentine tango song about a man who beat his wife because she may cheat on him sometime in the future. ¶13. (SBU) The possible scope of the environmental impact of the plants is a matter of debate, but their unpopularity with a vocal segment of the Argentine population and the significant potential economic benefit the plants will provide to Uruguay are both beyond question, making this a highly intractable dispute that will probably not be resolved in the short-term. Deputy Foreign Minister Garcia Moritan opined to the Ambassador that the GOA saw no short-term fix to the problem and that relations would get worse before they got better. Judging by the fact that the Gualeguaychu protesters recently constructed a traditional outdoor barbeque called a quincho at the site of the protest indicates that they share that opinion. -------------- - SANTA CRUZ LABOR CONFLICT CALMER BUT CONTINUES -------------- - ¶14. (U) The Santa Cruz Province roadblocks and strikes by oil workers, which ultimately resulted in the death of a police officer (REFTEL),have stopped, but negotiations between the workers and oil companies have had limited success. Workers claim that YPF Repsol has not held up its end of the bargain. Part of the negotiated respite called for YPF Repsol to pay the workers 50 percent of their wages lost during the 18-day strike; the workers now declare they will settle for no less than 100 percent. There have been no arrests in the death of the policeman to date and the investigating judge is avoiding making any predictions saying only that they are still working on reconstructing the sequence of events. ¶15. (U) The Santa Cruz event has, however, precipitated action in Buenos Aires on the strikers' demand that the income tax threshold be raised. The Economy Ministry this week presented the Casa Rosada with several options on raising the floor at which salaries are taxed, though no definitive decisions have been made. Minister of Federal Planning Julio De Vido met February 15 with Hugo Moyano, Secretary General of the CGT labor federation and head of the SIPDIS Teamsters union, and several provincial oil worker union representatives to discuss the issues and reportedly to request restraint on wage demands. ¶16. (U) Numerous unions, several in key areas of the economy, will be renegotiating annual contracts beginning in March. It appears to be a given that wages in the formal and unionized sectors of the economy will rise. The GOA, ever fearful of growing inflation levels, wants to keep expectations and increases to a minimum and wants to avoid events like Las Heras in Santa Cruz from jeopardizing the upcoming labor negotiations and tainting discussions with unions in other industries that appear willing to work with the GOA to keep the wage-demand-price cycle under control. ¶17. (U) Finally, in another union/piquetero-friendly move by the government, Luis D,Ela was appointed to the newly-created Subsecretary of Land for the Social Habitat, assisting the Secretary of Public Works. D,Ela is a former Buenos Aires City legislator and is the leader of the pro-Kirchner piquetero group FTV (Earth and Housing Federation). D'Elia was an early supporter of the presidential candidacy of the then-obscure governor from Santa Cruz, Nestor Kirchner. D'Elia gained notoriety in June 2004 when he led the FTV in a takeover of a police station in Buenos Aires -- much like the takeover in Las Heras -- but without the fatal outcome. D'Elia and other pro-K piquetero leaders were instrumental in mobilizing pro-Cristina Kirchner crowds for campaign events. He is the latest in a succession of piquetero leaders to be appointed to federal or provincial government ministries. GUTIERREZ