IRAQ; WORLD BANK'S RESPONSE TO PRESIDENT KIRCHNER;

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002620 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: IRAQ; WORLD BANK'S RESPONSE TO PRESIDENT KIRCHNER; VENEZUELAN-ARGENTINE TIES; US IMAGE; BOLIVIA; US-ARGENTINE RELATIONSHIP; US PRESIDENT BUSH'S DAUGHTERS IN BUENOS AIRES; 11/24/06; BUENOS AIRES ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Today's international leading stories include US President Bush's decision not to travel to Baghdad on Thanksgiving Day; the World Bank's response to President Kirchner's letter over the pulp mills; Venezuelan President Chavez's reported decision to remove his Ambassador to Argentina; the current situation in Bolivia; the US-Argentine bilateral relationship; and the implications of the theft of Barbara Bush's handbag in a Buenos Aires restaurant. ¶2. OPINION PIECES - "Bush and a sign in the form of an absence" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (11/24) "According to Republican government officials, in a sign of tacit acknowledgment that the situation in Iraq is getting worse every day, US President George W. Bush and VP Dick Cheney decided not to travel to Baghdad to meet with US troops or local authorities on Thanksgiving day due to the 'danger' their visits could have implied. "Unless there is a surprise, as has happened in the past, Bush will arrive in Jordan next week to meet with Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki while Cheney will arrive today in Saudi Arabia to discuss with King Abdullah how to stop the escalation of violence in Iraq. Bush and Al-Maliki will analyze different ways to control the chaos hitting the country after a 45-month-occupation, and will tackle 'the establishment of security and stability in Iraq,' according to a statement." - "The World Bank's reply to Kirchner" Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," writes (11/23) "According to an Argentine Government official in Washington, the president of the World Bank, Paul Wolfowitz, sent a letter to President Kirchner one day before the vote on the loan for Botnia.' "However, the letter sent to the Argentine President was not signed by Wolfowitz..., something considered an offense in diplomatic language... "According to the source, the letter responds point by point toKirchner's letter to Wolfowitz... It explains that, according to the two environmental studies carried out by the International Financial Corporation, the mills will not cause any environmental damage and that international environmental protection standards are being met. Regarding the lawsuit filed by Argentina against Uruguay at The Hague International Criminal Court, the letter says it is a long-term issue, and that the Bank will not side with any of the two parties. "The truth is that while many may think it is praiseworthy to fight for the environment, the way in which the events occurred did not contribute to the notion that that was Argentina's real purpose, but quite the opposite." - "Venezuela could remove its Ambassador to Argentina" Mariano Obarrio, political columnist of daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (11/24) "The Kirchner administration believes that Venezuelan Ambassador Roger Cappella has been recalled to Venezuela for good and that he will not return to Argentina. If he did, however, it would be interpreted as a challenge from Bolivarian Leader Hugo Chavez to the Argentine President. "... Members of the Argentine Government asserted that Chavez clearly understood after his conversation with Kirchner that Capella had on several occasions interfered in domestic issues... "Among his most irritating decisions, he is reported to have funded political parties such as the Communist Party and Luis D'Elia's group of picketers. According to members of the Argentine Government, he wielded strong clout among social organizations, which he persuaded to pressure the government to defend Iran, an ally of Venezuela. "Also, he is reported to have led 'active diplomacy' activities, such as distributing social assistance and lecturing at universities to disseminate Chavez's 'Bolivarian revolution.'" - "The US loses millions for its officials' 'bad education'" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (11/23) "The ladies and gentlemen who stamp the first US seals on passports damage the US image, bring millions of losses to the US economy and, to make matters worse, they dissuade millions from traveling to the US either for business or pleasure. "These are the main conclusions of a US opinion poll conducted by the Discover America Partnership, an alliance of major tourism-related US firms that wanted to evaluate how the US is seen abroad and how to improve its image. "The conclusions of this study were surprising, at least for them. The most important complaint is that the US is considered the 'worst' country when it comes to requesting a visa, and another complaint is about 'ill-treatment' by immigration officials." - "A sign in the middle of a storm" Fernando Halperin, columnist of daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (11/24) "The news of the day in Bolivia is that the Morales administration has decided to sit at a negotiating table with the opposition. But this news carries a question - is it a sporadic gesture or a real change of direction in a governing style that has led Morales and his followers to a swamp, from which he has made unsuccessful attempts to get out...? "In spite of the current political turbulence, the socialist government has not gone through major crises, at least if one bears in mind Bolivia's ever volatile political scene. "If one makes a cold analysis of the current situation in Bolivia, the conclusion should be more than soothing. Bolivia is going through one of the greatest economic bonanza in years; the government still has huge popular support...; and social unrest is under control. The future does not seem less promising. "Nonetheless, Morales is not sailing on calm waters but in a rough sea with dark clouds ahead. Analysts find this easy to explain. "Jorge Lazarte, former judge at the National Election Court, pointed out that 'the government has made many political mistakes and has awakened a fairly disperse opposition.' 'The government is used to making strong statements and threatening to impose tough punishments, but it then sits down to negotiate.' "Beyond the land reform, the controversy over the two-thirds at the Constituent Assembly and the draft bill aimed at monitoring and overthrowing governors, Lazarte believes that there are two governmental initiatives that could never be implemented in Bolivia - the replacement of a representative democracy with a consensus democracy, in which the right to dissent is not guaranteed; and the indigenous ethno-mania, which is at the core of all the changes proposed by the government." ¶3. EDITORIALS - "(Argentina's) relations with the US" Leading "Clarin" editorializes (11/24) "The arrival of a new US Ambassador (to the country) usually raises expectations in the bilateral relationship. In this case, Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne's arrival coincided with the US support for the (Argentine) judicial request for the international arrest of former high-ranking Iranian government officials who were involved in the AMIA case. Other gestures from the Argentine Government were also interpreted as part of a friendlier attitude toward the US. "But beyond specific short-term situations, the truth is that a fluid relationship and a frank understanding with the US should be part of any serious foreign policy strategy... "There are some publicly known points of disagreement as regards to agricultural protectionism or intellectual property, which were made explicit in the 2005 Mar del Plata Summit of the Americas... But when it comes to substance, there are major points of hemispheric agreement regarding democratic development, the need to improve the countries' ability to meet regional challenges and global threats. Additionally, of course, there is the economic, political and cultural cooperation, which calls for realistic, mature and friendly ties with the US." - "Don't beat about the Bush" An editorial in liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" reads (11/23) "The belated reports of the theft of the handbag of Barbara Bush (the daughter of US President George W. Bush, not his mother) in a San Telmo restaurant early this week deserve some serious comment even though at first sight this might look like inflating a petty crime simply because it involves an extremely high-profile personality - the offspring of the world superpower's leader. Indeed the case is important not because she was Barbara Bush but because there is every indication that her assailants mistook her for an ordinary tourist - the issue of the safety of every visitor is thus raised... The safety of any tourist is at stake and with it the future of a growing industry earning invaluable foreign revenue... "This theft also raises the question of the 'zero tolerance' approach to crime... The damage from this theft has already been done in image terms, but it need not be irreparable. As things now stand, the Kirchner administration's reputation is highly vulnerable to a spectacular crime because of its lax approach to law and order - people will assume that any shocking crime is the consequence of that neglect." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE