AMBASSADOR WAYNE; US LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS; NICARAGUAN

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002499 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR WAYNE; US LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS; NICARAGUAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS; WHITE HOUSE'S WEBSITE; SADDAM HUSSEIN SENTENCED TO DEATH; US-MEXICAN BORDER FENCE; 11/06/06; BUENOS AIRES ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Weekend papers report on the arrival of Ambassador Wayne to Argentina; the upcoming US legislative elections; Nicaraguan presidential elections; an alleged White House's Website containing detailed information on how to manufacture a nuclear bomb; Saddam Hussein sentenced to death; and attendees to the Ibero-American Summit asking the US not to build a fence on the US-Mexican border. ¶2. OPINION PIECES - "US Ambassador takes office faced with a millionaire confrontation" Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" reports (11/06) "Today, Earl Anthony Wayne will take office as the new US Ambassador to Argentina. He will present his credentials to FM Jorge Taiana. Ambassador Wayne replaces Lino Gutierrez... "The ceremony is scheduled at the Foreign Ministry. The arrival of the new US diplomat takes place when it has not been decided yet whether Argentina will be removed from the GSP system, which allows for about 600-million-dollar (Argentine) exports to the US... "This is why the Argentine Government's treatment of Ambassador Wayne will be average and will not include major expressions of goodwill until the Bush administration announces its decision on the GSP issue. "... During meetings held with FM Taiana in Washington last month, Wayne asserted that he will improve bilateral ties between the two countries, particularly regarding economic issues, during his three-year term in office. "Ambassador Wayne is a career government official and an economist with a long background on the region and particularly on Argentina. From June 2000 to July 2006, he served as US Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Issues. In this position, he monitored, among other issues, Argentina's requests for help from the Bush administration to alleviate the effects of the 2001-2002 crisis... Wayne is also one of the supporters of the development of the FTAA in the region. As a matter of fact, while serving as Assistant Secretary of State, he started negotiations toward FTA between the US and Peru, Ecuador and Colombia. "This is why it is taken for granted that Ambassador Wayne will set out a comprehensive diplomatic work to explain the advantages of FTAA for Argentina, a responsibility that will require plenty of focus and negotiating skills. "His might not find it as hard to make progress on issues related to human rights and terrorism, two areas of interest to the Kirchner administration and on which Wayne has worked for many years, particularly when he served as US DCM in the European Community." - "With his eyes on investment, the US Ambassador takes office" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (11/06) "Smiling, kind, direct and efficient, according to those who know him, the brand-new US Ambassador to Argentina Earl Anthony Wayne will take office today with a portfolio of 'sensitive' bilateral and regional issues... "Wayne will promote US investments in the country. This will be his priority. However, he will also seek to coordinate two regional issues with the Government - what to do in Haiti and how to stabilize Bolivia. A third issue seems more remote - how to deal with Venezuela and its December 3 presidential election. "The constant challenges posed by President Hugo Chavez worry the White House, but the US Department of State relies on other countries, Brazil, Spain and Mexico, in that order, rather than President Kirchner, to deal with Chavez. "Wayne will also closely follow two domestic issues - the probe on the AMIA bombing case and the future of the human rights policy following the disappearance of witness Julio Lopez. While those two issues are not part of the bilateral agenda, they are of the interest of the US. "The probe of the AMIA bombing case and its alleged cover-up interests the US because of the influence of the Jewish community in this capital but also due to the fact that Iran and Hezbollah are at the top of the White House's list of enemies, alongside North Korea. "... In any case, Lino Gutierrez's successor will stand out for his low profile. A former member of the US Department of State who worked with him during the 2001-02 crisis said 'Wayne will do an excellent job in Argentina. He is a first-level diplomat.' 'The question is whether the Argentine Government will take advantage of him.' "The first set of challenges for Wayne will be of different nature. Washington wonders what the attitude of the government will be if the World Bank approves loans for 170 million dollars and a 300-million political insurance policy for Botnia. "A source in the Bush administration told 'La Nacion': 'What will Argentina do? How will the country react in the event it loses in the voting?'" - "The US has a new Ambassador to Argentina" Centrist "Perfil" newspaper's columnist Yolanda Yebra writes (11/05) "The new US Ambassador to Argentina, Earl Anthony Wayne, will take office on Monday. According to US State Department's officials, he wants 'to make a good start,' and take care of the US interests by strengthening the (bilateral) relationship. "Wayne adheres to the thesis that everyone can win in negotiations, but he keeps in mind that many actors do not always act in a rational way. This is why one of his favorite books is 'The Essence of Decision,' by Graham Allison. In 2005, Wayne said that 'it makes you reflect on bureaucratic politics and how it affects personality.' "This book and Wayne's 31-year- career in the foreign service will help him deal with two 'sensitive' issues in the country - the possible removal of Argentina from the GSP, and the implementation of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement between Washington and Montevideo... "Wayne is confident that his six years of background as Assistant Secretary of State on Economic and Business Issues will help him in SIPDIS dealing with one of his priorities - the 'improvement of Argentina's investment climate,' so that US businessmen 'feel welcome and legally safe'... "Wayne also wants to smooth disagreement on IPR and data protection, which are defended by the US at the WTO. He will promote the FTAA 'once we see the outcome of WTO negotiations.' "Wayne is seeking strategies aimed at defeating resistance to the FTAA, and mitigating the anti-US sentiment by 'public diplomacy,' interacting with youth and in the provinces, not only with the Buenos Aires elite.' Another of his plans is to 'cooperate with the Government and other organizations to promote sustainable growth in the country.' "The issues on his agenda also include counter-terrorist cooperation, 'because Argentina has also been the victim of international terrorism.' Wayne will closely follow the AMIA bombing case... and he also expects that Kirchner will 'continue contributing' to the 'stability of the region,' regarding the volatility of Bolivia and the impetuous nature of Hugo Chavez." - "The US engaged in the most expensive and aggressive election campaign of its history" Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," writes (11/05),"Never before had so much money been spent in US legislative campaigns. "The Republican and Democratic parties have already invested 2.6 billion dollars, this is, 400 million dollars more than in 2002 presidential campaign. But that's not all. Never before had the campaign been so negative, dirty and aggressive. This weekend, candidates resorted to all kinds of weapons to win. They accused their competitors of being 'sexual maniacs,' 'liars,' 'cheaters,' etc. "... James Cheek, an influential Democrat from Arkansas, a friend of Bill Clinton and a former US Ambassador to Argentina, said: 'During the last six years, with both houses under Republican command, there has been no control on the President's actions. There has been no investigation on the Bush administration's shameful response to hurricane Katrina in 2005. No commission investigated how much money was spent in the war on Iraq. If we manage to recover control of one of the two houses, we will not be able to change policies, but we will be able to organize hearings to exhibit the errors and horrors committed. And this will position us better for presidential elections.' "According to opinion surveys, Democrats have big chances to obtain the 15 seats needed to win the Lower House and perhaps also the six seats required at the Senate." - "More fresh air for Latin America" Mercedes Lopez San Miguel, columnist of left-of-center "Pagina 12," writes (11/05) "According to international analysts consulted by this paper, Democrats could win control of one or the two houses of Congress in November 7 legislative elections, and this would bring some fresh air to the region. According to experts, a president stuck in the Iraqi 'swamp' is likely to find it difficult to toughen his anti-immigration legislation and make progress in his bilateral FTAs vis-`-vis a regional integration process. With Lula's reelection in Brazil and Venezuela's entry, Mercosur has growth potential as a trade bloc. "According to Mario Rapaport, professor of Economic History at Universidad de Buenos Aires, Bush's policy for the region has evolved. After failing with his FTAA attempt, he is now almost exclusively focused on fostering FTAs and providing foreign cooperation, which mainly consists of military cooperation and help in the struggle against narco-trafficking. However, Rapaport highlights a contradiction in the US economic policy - the free trade area does not coincide with restrictions on immigration." - "Bush's sons" Santiago O'Donnell, international columnist of left-of-center "Pagina 12," comments (11/05) "... There are three possible scenarios in US elections. One, that Bush loses control of the two houses. Two, that he maintains control of the two houses. Three, that he loses the Lower House and keeps the Senate. In any event, the outcome will mark a trend toward the 2008 presidential elections, but very little will actually change until then. For the first time in a long time, a foreign policy issue, the war in Iraq, stands at the top of voters' concerns, well above economy and insecurity. But, regardless of the outcome, the US will maintain its military presence in Iraq. Republicans say that rather than withdrawing from Iraq, they should win the war. Democrats say that the USA has to leave Iraq and set deadlines, but they do not say how. From their own experience, Democrats know that anti-war candidates do not obtain good results in time of war." - "Nicaragua - the survival of a revolutionary souvenir" Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," writes (11/05) "... 28 years have passed since the beginning of the Sandinist revolution, which put an end to the Somoza regime... "... Ortega keeps some of his old rhetoric against social injustice and he is close to Venezuelan Hugo Chavez... "In Washington, some still speak of Ortega as a threat, although just a few believe this or really focus on the issue. "In inter-American affairs, Nicaragua is irrelevant and regarding Ortega, who can say that whether he will work toward better national income distribution or he will instead be satisfied if banks reduce interest rates on credit cards? "Nonetheless, the decay of the old guerrilla leader cannot cloud the memory and the revolutionary feeling of three decades ago. With (the revolution),Nicaragua was able to break a tyranny, recover institutional capacity, improve its education and write some of the most dignifying pages of Latin American history." - "From the '70 revolution to business" Pilar Conci, on special assignment in daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (11/05) "... The Frente Sandinista de Liberacion Nacional and its leader Daniel Ortega seem to have changed a lot since 1979, when they took power via the Sandinist revolution after removing the Somoza dictatorship. In fact, it is said that revolutionaries became businessmen, and that they have a long list of vested interests. "The fact that Ortega is one of the favorite candidates according to opinion surveys worries many sectors of the public, and the economy is one of the main reasons for their concerns. "During the '80s, the Sandinist leader led a government that did away with free market, ordered expropriations and introduced Marxist policies... "The former president and his allies say they have changed and that if they take power, they would rule the country differently from 20 years ago. However, many in Nicaragua wonder if there is really a new Ortega." - "Nuclear 'shame' for the White House" Leonardo Mindez, on special assignment in Washington for leading "Clarin," writes (11/04) "... During recent weeks, the Republican administration, which is used to being extremely cautious with sensitive documents, has kept up an Internet Website where it provided detailed information of how to manufacture a nuclear bomb. And this happens just as the White House appears worried about the progress made by nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea. "To fuel to the irony, the Website was created following strong criticism of the intelligence work that had been made prior to the invasion of Iraq... "... According to 'The New York Times,' the members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) complained that the pictures, diagrams and equations in the Website were a basic guide on how to manufacture a nuclear bomb. "The US Ambassador to the IAEA denied having received any complaints, but the truth is that the website was closed on Thursday night." - "Democratic lobbyists push for Argentina to be punished over debt default" Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," comments (11/05) "This week, a group of lobbyists was formed in Washington with the purpose of putting pressure on President Bush to punish President Nestor Kirchner in the event he does not meet the holdout bondholders' claims. "The group will have a lot of influence in Washington if the Democratic opposition manages to recover control of the Lower House and perhaps the Senate, as predicted by opinion polls." - "The US asked not to build the border fence" Jorge Elias, on special assignment in Montevideo for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (11/04) "In a fenced city, the 16th Ibero-American Summit has asked the US not to build the US-Mexican border fence, and asked that the USG solves the situation of illegal immigrants. "... The Ibero-American heads of State asked the US to implement 'the necessary measures to solve the problem of workers coming from other countries and the programs to ensure full respect for temporary workers' human and labor rights.'" - "Satisfaction in White House satisfied and suspicion in the Democrat opposition" Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," writes (11/06) "A triumphant and smiling George W. Bush termed Saddam Hussein's death sentence as a 'historic milestone' and an 'important achievement for the young Iraqi democracy and its constitutional government.' "However, only two days away from legislative elections, the timing of the announcement raised suspicion in Washington that it could have been organized to lend Republican candidates a hand. And Democrats did not miss the opportunity to remind voters that, in spite of Saddam's arrest and sentence, Bush's policy in Iraq is so mistaken that tens of US soldiers still die in Iraq everyday. "As a matter of fact, Democrats have turned these elections into a true referendum on Bush's policy on Iraq and Saddam's sentence became a good excuse to reinforce the idea, and again blame the Republican government for the 'failure in Iraq.'" ¶3. EDITORIALS - "The shadow of Daniel Ortega" An editorial in daily-of-record "La Nacion" reads (11/04) "Tomorrow, Nicaragua will vote for its new president. Daniel Ortega, a controversial left-wing candidate who is in love with power and who let down the expectations of Nicaraguans, could win the first round of elections. "... If he wins, one should think that Nicaragua could turn to the left in spite of the messages he is conveying that his political view now differs from yesterday's. Ortega would not be in line with the prevailing political and economic view in democratic Central America - economic opening, market and trade freedom. "Ortega's re-election would therefore be dangerous. It would be just like stopping the clock, setting it at some past time alien to present day reality." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE