US-ARGENTINE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP; US ELECTIONS;

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002458

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: US-ARGENTINE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP; US ELECTIONS;
BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS; 10/31/06



1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Key international stories today include the state of the
US-Argentine relationship based on a report from the US Department
of State about Argentina and what kind of cooperation the US expects
from Argentina; the upcoming US elections; and the outcome of
Brazilian elections.


2. OPINION PIECES

- "The US expects Kirchner to continue to keep Chavez 'in check'"

Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
writes (10/31) "After a long and complicated confirmation procedure
at the US Senate and more than two months studying Spanish, the new
US Ambassador, Earl Anthony Wayne, will arrive in Argentina on
November 6. According to a report that has just been made public,
part of his agenda will include defending the US interest that
Kirchner continues to keep Venezuelan Chavez 'in check.'

"... Wayne's departure from the US coincides with the publication of
a report from the US State Department on Argentina, which is a good
guide on what (Ambassador) Wayne's future agenda will be.

"According to the document, the US expects Kirchner to continue to
keep Chavez at bay. It praises the Argentine president's
'constructive' role in persuading Chavez to hold a referendum.
According to the report, 'we have to do (everything necessary) for
him to stay involved.' The report also expresses satisfaction for
Kirchner's support to Bolivia's stability.

"The report mentions that Argentina's enthusiasm for the FTAA has
cooled, and that the country had instead focused on its ties with
Mercosur members, including Venezuela. It also says that 'the US and
Argentina continue maintaining a positive relationship in spite of
Kirchner's sometimes populist rhetoric and his public opposition to
the FTAA.' The report also praised the country's economic recovery,
although it warned about slow-moving renegotiation agreements with
privatized companies, potential power cuts, inflation, price
controls, and a weak investment climate...

"As a matter of fact, everything indicates that Wayne's work will be
more economic than political. 'This is what I've been told,' said
Professor Mark Jones, from Rice University, who has recently
attended a seminar organized for Wayne to get information on
different aspects of Argentina's reality. Jones added that
'(dealing) with Kirchner is very hard for a US Ambassador, because
if he wants to promote better democratic institutions, he will be
seen as interfering in Argentine politics; any support for an NGO
working on issues related to democracy or civil rights would not go
down well in the government because, in general, those groups are
critical of Kirchner.'

"The report, headlined 'Background Notes: Argentina,' is the last
updated evaluation made by the US Department of State about our
country. It underscores that Bush's efforts to lend Kirchner a hand
in 2003 were crucial to 'continue maintaining a good relationship
(between the two countries.'"

- "Under pressure, Bush joins the campaign"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (10/31) "Only eight days away
from elections..., US President George W. Bush joined the G.O.P.'s
election campaign, under pressure by the need of the ruling party to
keep a majority in both houses of Congress.

"... Bush accused Democrats of ignoring the US problems and acting
as cowards regarding the Middle East - 'The objective of Democrats
is getting out of Iraq. The purpose of Republicans is winning in
Iraq.'

"However, news coming from Iraq is far from giving the White House a
break. According to the official count, 101 US soldiers were killed
in October...

"According to a CNN opinion survey, 59 percent of Americans
disapprove of the White House's management, particularly regarding
the performance of the economy and the occupation of Iraq, while
Iran and North Korea launch periodical challenges."

- "A relationship with ups and downs"

Leading "Clarin" reports (10/31) "The US' disgust about the close
relationship between the Kirchner and Chavez administrations
materialized at the last SOA, when Venezuela closed ranks with
Mercosur in opposing the FTAA.


"This was followed by decisions made on a regional level rather than
between the two countries, such as Venezuela's entry into Mercosur,
which, in turn supported Chavez in his attempt to obtain a seat at
the UN Security Council. All this has been very irritating for the
US."

- "Lula win not (PT) petty"

Michael Soltys, executive editor of liberal, English-language
"Buenos Aires Herald," comments (10/31) "Lula's runoff triumph in
Brazil is a vote for continuity and change at the same time. The
continuity is obvious - the same man remains in the presidency. But
various elements of change also arise inexorably from the
circumstances of Lula's victory.

"... Sunday's victory was so plainly the triumph of Lula rather than
his PT party that he must spend his second term working towards the
change which will surely come in 2010 because he has no heirs within
his party - nor can he if he aspires to a successful presidency.
Virtually everybody assumes their own continuity and many have good
reasons to do so - Lula is the exception.

"The next elections in 2010 will mark the end of an era because they
will be the first since Brazil's return to democracy in 1985 without
Lula as a candidate. Nobody else in government ranks has the stature
of this supreme symbol of upward mobility in Brazil.

"... Yet if Lula is increasingly becoming a president without a
party and must factor the opposition into his plans, this is an even
greater boost for Brazil's stability than the size of Lula's
landslide."

- "Significant elections for the region"

Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst for leading "Clarin,"
opines (10/31) "... Lula incarnates a more pragmatic and less
ideological view in the center-left scenario... He has managed to
stick to several basic principles of economic neo-liberalism...

"Lula is less confrontational than Morales and, particularly, than
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez...

"There will be a dozen national elections in the region this year,
but we will have to wait until December (when elections in Ecuador
and Nicaragua will have already been held) to make a more detailed
interpretation of Latin America's political map."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

MATERA