ARGENTINA: COALITION LED BY CATHOLIC CHURCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 002451 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: COALITION LED BY CATHOLIC CHURCH DEFEATS KIRCHNERISTA IN MISIONES Classified By: CDA Michael Matera for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Misiones Province governor and Kirchner ally Carlos Rovira's attempt to amend the provincial constitution to allow indefinite re-election was soundly rejected in an October 29 election for delegates to a constituent assembly. President Nestor Kirchner had publicly supported the effort and Rovira's defeat in the polls is being portrayed by the media and the opposition as a serious political setback for Kirchner. The margin of the opposition victory, in the face of a concerted government effort to secure votes, surprised nearly everyone. While all facets of the opposition were able to unite in Misiones against Rovira, it is doubtful whether this unity can be transferred to a national level. The opposition to Rovira in Misiones was led by the former Catholic bishop of the province Joaquin Pina, leading some journalists and political analysts to speculate that the Church may be the only institution strong enough to pose a real challenge to Kirchner. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Misiones Province governor and Kirchner ally Carlos Rovira's attempt to amend the provincial constitution to allow indefinite re-election was soundly rejected in an October 29 election for delegates to a constituent assembly. Political analysts have postulated that President Kirchner has suffered a significant defeat via the outcome in Misiones. President Kirchner's personal and public support for Governor Rovira's proposed constitutional reform leaves him with no way to shift blame for the defeat in Misiones. In a meeting with Emboffs on October 31, a respected political analyst and pollster shared information that President Kirchner was angry with his wife for encouraging him to support Governor Rovira so publicly when he felt he should have stayed out of the issue. (COMMENT: Although the defeat may be a disappointment or embarrassment for President Kirchner, it is unlikely to cause him any significant political damage. His behavior so far has been typical of his reactions to prior situations that are beyond his control: damage control by staying out of the public and remaining silent. END COMMENT.) ¶3. (U) The opposition to Rovira in Misiones was led by the former Catholic bishop of the province Joaquin Pina, leading some journalists and political analysts to speculate that the Church may be the only institution strong enough to pose a real challenge to Kirchner. While all facets of the opposition were able to unite in Misiones against Rovira, it is doubtful whether this unity can be transferred to a national level. The opposition's candidate list for the elections was filled with mostly religious leaders, including Catholic and Protestant ministers, who were widely viewed as moral leaders free of any political baggage. These same candidates were able to work together on a single issue, which many analysts have said would be much more difficult on the national level where myriad issues are at play. Pina has, moreover, announced that he is done with politics and has no plans to continue as a candidate on the local or national level. Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, head of the Catholic Archdioceses of Buenos Aires, lent his personal support to Pina's efforts, but has also discouraged any official Church involvement in politics. ¶4. (U) The margin of the opposition victory, in the face of a concerted government effort to secure votes, surprised nearly everyone. The final results show that Rovira was defeated by more than 13 points, an outcome that no pollster publicly predicted. Commentators have speculated that voters were reluctant to speak honestly about how they planned to vote, possibly out of fear of retribution from the government. The pollsters who projected a comfortable Rovira victory have been accused in the press of either being very bad at their jobs, or of having compromised their information to meet the needs of their customers--in this case Governor Rovira. The opposition group, United Front for Dignity led by ex-bishop Joaquin Pina, had publicly denounced Rovira's "fraudulent" campaign tactics and had feared the vote was unchangeably fixed in favor of Rovira. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: The defeat in Misiones not only puts a halt to the recent trend of changing provincial constitutions to allow indefinite reelections, but also indicates that President Kirchner's support is no longer all that is needed to please the Argentine electorate. The lesson from Misiones is that a motivated and impassioned opposition is capable of rallying the necessary support to successfully challenge President Kirchner and his political machine. Perhaps the national opposition parties, such as Mauricio Macri's PRO or the non-Kirchnerista Peronists, will be motivated to solidify their loose coalitions to present a strong and viable alternative to President Kirchner in October 2007. However, it would be nearly impossible to recreate the specific conditions that led to victory in Misiones on a national BUENOS AIR 00002451 002 OF 002 level, and we suspect that the outcome in Misiones will be little more than a psychological defeat for President Kirchner, whose national approval ratings remain well above 50 percent. END COMMENT. MATERA