NORTH KOREA; VENEZUELA'S CANDIDACY TO THE UN SECURITY

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002329 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: NORTH KOREA; VENEZUELA'S CANDIDACY TO THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL; EVO MORALES; IRA AND ETA; 10/17/06; BUENOS AIRES ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Weekend papers cover China's sanctions on Pyongyang; Venezuela's efforts to win a seat at the UN Security Council; and alleged racism of Bolivian President Morales' opponents; and the UK and Spain's success in solving a long history of diplomatic differences through dialogue. Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by former US President and 2002 Nobel Peace Laureate James Carter, who underscored that "the military option in North Korea could lead to the death of one million people among South Koreans and Americans." Carter argues that "instead of tougher threats and sanctions, the prevailing non proliferation treaty should be implemented." ¶2. OPINION PIECES - "Pressured by the US, China imposes sanctions on Pyongyang" Daily-of-record "La Nacion" (10/17) "Amid strong US pressure, the Chinese government, North Korea's main ally, started yesterday to enforce the sanctions imposed on Pyongyang by the UN Security Council to punish the Communist regime's nuclear test... "While China still has some reservations about sanctions against North Korea, it started to raise a fence on its border with North Korea and check the loading of trucks heading for that country. The Chinese government's first steps are considered vital for the success of sanctions against Pyongyang." - "Tough sanctions against North Korea" Alberto Armendariz, New York-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (10/15) "In response to the controversial nuclear test performed by North Korea last Monday, the UN Security Council unanimously approved tough diplomatic and economic sanctions against Kim Jong-Il's Communist regime, although it refrained from threatening to launch a military action. "Resolution 1718 was 'totally' rejected by North Korea, whose representatives warned that it will consider every major pressure from Washington 'a declaration of war.'" - "Setback for Chavez' fight for a seat at the UN Security Council" Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin" on special assignment in New York, writes (10/17) "President Hugo Chavez suffered a setback in his efforts to obtain a seat at the UN Security Council. Even though all previous signs indicated that Venezuela could at least obtain most of the votes, the Venezuelan government lost to its rival Guatemala in nine of ten voting rounds and tied in the remaining one. "Guatemala did not manage to obtain the two-thirds of the votes of the 192 UN members that are required to obtain a seat, although its performance was much better than expected... "Last night, the happiest delegation was that of US, which spent last month lobbying in favor of Guatemala. The White House is attempting to prevent Caracas from obtaining a seat at the UN Security Council on fears that the Venezuelan leader will hinder every US initiative at the UN Security Council. "US Assistant Secretary for Western Hemispheric Affairs at the US Department of State, Tom Shannon, said 'I am not surprised that Guatemala is winning. I do not see any need to start considering other options...'" - "UN Security Council - a tense voting is expected" Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," writes (10/15) "October 16 voting to chose the country that will replace Argentina at the UN Security Council has become a real arm-wrestling match between the US and Venezuela. Caracas' official competitor is Guatemala and Washington has made public Guatemala's triumph. "US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently told 'The Wall Street Journal' that - 'this is a serious affair, one which could be the end of consensus within the UN Security Council.' "What really worries the US is that when Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez speaks, many agree with what he says. While some condemned Chavez's rhetoric after he spoke at the UN General Assembly, when he compared President Bush with the Devil, many more applauded him, particularly the representatives of Middle East and African countries. "... Russia and China will vote for Venezuela - both have close trade ties with Caracas. Africa and Asia are more inclined toward Venezuela, just like the Arab countries. "Latin America is divided - most Central American countries will vote for Guatemala while South American and Caribbean countries favor Venezuela. There are some exceptions - Colombia, which receives important US aid, will vote for Guatemala, and Peru will abstain. "According to the calculations of Argentine Ambassador to the UN Cesar Mayoral, Guatemala could obtain 90-100 votes while Venezuela could get 100-110 votes." - "A vote that shows the limits of the Venezuelan leader" Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," writes (10/17) "... If another candidate obtains consensus, Chavez will be trapped in his predictions of sure victory and harassed by the opposition, which accused him of having spent millions of dollars in a campaign that was in his own interests and not those of Venezuela. "... Some analysts speculated that an anti-US bloc could emerge at the UN. The problem is that Chavez needs Venezuela to win the vote while for the US it is enough to prevent him from succeeding." - "A seat at the UN Security Council" Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed story by Manuel Antonio Garreton, sociologist and professor at the University of Chile, who writes (10/17) "... It is clear that the USG feels the UN, and particularly the UN Security Council, as an institution of its own and considers that everything that opposes its will is not viable... "... As a matter of fact, it is the US policy that makes the UN Security Council not viable, as happened with the invasion and war in Iraq... In other words, the interests of peace, development, and respect for all peoples, and the defense and promotion of human rights are today opposed to Washington's prevailing interests and views. And this is why Guatemala's election would be a blow to the credibility and legitimacy of the UN Security Council. "The second issue is related to the possibility that an independent Latin American bloc prevails in the world vis-`-vis the US. Venezuela's accession to the UN Security Council represents this possibility, given its clear Latin American and progressive approach. "Undoubtedly, Venezuela should be the future non permanent Latin American member of the UN Security Council." - "Who goes with Hugo?" Michael Soltys, executive editor of liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald," writes (10/17) "... It just has not been his year - even if Venezuela's maverick President Hugo Chavez remains as likely as ever to close out 2006 with a resounding re-election victory. "Chavez has had little enough joy around the region since the victory of Bolivia's Evo Morales nearly a year ago, suffering the defeat of kindred spirits in Peru and Mexico plus unexpectedly strong center-right performances in Colombia and Brazil. "... A regional swing to the left and the threat posed by Chavez are the two most frequent clichs of Latin American analysts but perhaps both stand in need of a review... It would seem that Latin America is reconsidering the wisdom of the 'Stop the world, I want to get off' populism espoused by the likes of Chavez as the subcontinent's own growth reflects just how extraordinarily well that world is doing economically. "As for Chavez, his support for candidates in the region has now failed so often since the Bolivian elections that it has to be asked whether his backing might not be counterproductive." - "The price of a risky plan" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (10/17) "An urgent message for Hugo Chavez - remember which are the basic rules you should follow when dealing with other leaders. Those are several, but easy to understand, if one leaves aside ideological biases. It would be convenient for you to start implementing them, whether you win or not this election against Guatemala for a seat at the UN Security Council. "Rule number one - there are no friends in international relations, only converging interests... "Rule number two - money can attract certain government officials and countries, but to a certain point and certain limits... "Rule number three - every sign of support is relative, regardless of how much money or how many hugs are exchanged... "Lastly but not least, rule number four - in local or international politics, there are no small competitors!... "... Final comment for Chavez - it is still uncertain which country will finally obtain the UN Security Council seat. But whether he succeeds or not, he should review his diplomatic handbook and check whether his team is the best for his administration and his country... "Post script for Bush - do not fall on the temptation of making the same mistake Chavez made, which is confusing the votes obtained with support. Remember rule number one - they only express the convergence of multiple and diverse national interests." - "Bush and Chavez vs. limits on power" Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by writer Alberto Benegas Lynch Jr., who writes (10/17) "It is hard for me to write these lines. I admire the US tradition. The vision of the Founding Fathers of this nation is really extraordinary. "However, I have to denounce again the abominable procedures of the current administration, which contradict every tradition honoring individual liberties. "... It is sad to acknowledge that there is a shivering and worrisome similarity between Bush and Chavez regarding abuse of power." - "Bolivia - antagonisms tinted with ink and rhetoric" Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," comments (10/14) "... Reality has become incredibly tough for Morales. If many have something to win in his plans, there is a small group that believes it has everything to lose, particularly a deeply regressive national income distribution. Of course, this fear is out-of-proportion both in Bolivia and in other parts, but they do not get it wrong if they believe that they will lose something in a national reorganization. "This minority thinks that secession is not a bad idea. Why would they not think that a coup d'etat is not advisable? The racist element is also present. Beyond the certainty of their criticism, those sectors do not digest an indigenous president. Also, the attacks against Lula or Hugo Chavez hide class components." ¶3. EDITORIALS - "IRA and ETA, conflicts of other times" An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (10/14) "The two oldest armed conflicts of Western Europe are making progress towards a possible peaceful evolution although with different degrees of progress and difficulties. "... Both the UK and Spain are societies that have managed to solve their historic problems through dialogue. "On the other hand, the economic prosperity of Ireland and the Basque provinces is a strong impetus to overcome old nationalistic disputes and to channel national claims through democratic institutions. There are also other reasons for concern, such as terrorism, which has not emerged from domestic history but from global conflicts." 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