A HISTORIAN'S VIEW OF KIRCHNER AND ARGENTINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BUENOS AIRES 002229 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO NSC FOR DAN FISK TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE USCINCSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR SUBJECT: A HISTORIAN'S VIEW OF KIRCHNER AND ARGENTINE POLITICS Classified By: CDA, a.i., Michael Matera, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Leading Argentine historian Jose Ignacio Garcia Hamilton sees President Kirchner as largely reflecting the opinions of the majority of the Argentine people. For Garcia Hamilton, there are two great traditions that make up Argentine political culture: the republican democracy tradition best exemplified by the drafter of Argentina's 1853 Constitution, Juan Bautista Alberdi, and the populist welfare state of Juan Domingo Peron. Garcia Hamilton sees Kirchner as more Peron than Alberdi, but feels that the republican tradition will place limits on Kirchner over the long term, making it difficult, for example, for Kirchner to change the Constitution in 2008 to allow him to run for a third term. However, Garcia Hamilton thinks that Argentina's democracy is weaker now than it was 20 years ago. ¶2. (C) On international relations, he argued that Kirchner's verbal attacks against the IMF and foreign leaders and their policies are popular with an Argentine public that still feels they were victimized by foreign interests during the recent economic crisis. Garcia Hamilton said that there is a general feeling among Argentines that the country was humiliated during the crisis, which has significantly increased anti-U.S. sentiment in Argentina, fueled more by jealousy than a sense that the U.S. did not help Argentina during the crisis. He argued that there was little the USG could do to improve relations with the GOA, other than to avoid making diplomatic gaffes, because most of what the GOA wants from the U.S., such as more foreign investment, is more dependent on GOA policy than what the USG does. END SUMMARY. -------------- Kirchner Reflects Argentine Public Sentiment -------------- ¶3. (C) On September 22, Poloff met with leading Argentine historian Jose Ignacio Garcia Hamilton, during which Garcia Hamilton gave his analysis of President Kirchner and the current Argentine political situation in historical context. He argued that Kirchner mirrors the opinions of the majority of Argentines, which is reflected in Kirchner's high public approval ratings. Following the 2001-2002 crisis, most Argentines wanted a strong state that would ensure economic recovery and political stability. Kirchner has met those goals. He argued that most Argentines are happy with the growing economy and are not that focused on the current erosion of democratic institutions that they feel failed to prevent the crisis. ¶4. (C) Garcia Hamilton said, however, that Argentina's liberal democratic tradition would put limits on Kirchner over the long-term. He argued that Argentines would not tolerate, for example, Kirchner attempting to modify the Constitution in 2008 to run for a third term. (Comment: There has been a lot of discussion about this issue in the local press recently, stemming from comments made by Kirchner and others in the Casa Rosada that it would be good to change the presidential term to five or to six years, as it was before the last constitutional reform in 1994. Kirchner has since denied that this is his intention, but Kirchner's strong support of several provincial governors' attempts to reform their provincial constitutions in order to be reelected calls into question Kirchner's long-term intentions in this regard. End Comment.) ¶5. (C) Garcia Hamilton said that Kirchner's weakening of democratic institutions actually made the political system more unstable over the long term and that Kirchner's economic policies will eventually lead to an economic decline and another crisis in the future. For Garcia Hamilton, everything in the political system now depends on the BUENOS AIR 00002229 002 OF 004 personal power of Kirchner. If Kirchner is weakened in the future, there will be nothing to protect the system from crisis. Garcia Hamilton said that throughout Argentine history, the opposition to hegemonic parties developed from within, which he argued would eventually happen to Kirchner. Garcia Hamilton said that Kirchner's economic policies, such as the price and utility controls and beef export ban, will harm Argentina's economy in the long term. "Kirchner has an odd mix of economic tendencies. He prefers the old Peronist style of 'capitalism among friends' and is paternalistic, but at the same time he says that he wants more foreign investment." -------------- -------------- Alberdi and Peron Wrestling for the Soul of Argentina -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Garcia Hamilton argued that in order to understand Kirchner and the current political situation, you need to understand Argentine history that produced the two dominant trends in Argentine political culture: the republican democracy tradition best exemplified by the drafter of Argentina's 1853 Constitution, Juan Bautista Alberdi, and the populist welfare state model of Juan Domingo Peron. Garcia Hamilton described Argentina's heritage from three centuries of colonial rule as "a tradition of privilege, mercantilism and patrimonialism." Argentina ended the colonial era as a poor, divided country with a comparatively small population. Everything changed, however, in the middle of the 19th century. "Alberdi and the other liberal thinkers of the mid-19th century set Argentina on a strong path towards political and economic development that equaled what was happening in the United States at the time. Argentina tried to break with its colonial past, encouraged immigration, and instituted private property and individual rights, such as the freedom of religion." ¶7. (SBU) The reforms of the mid-19th century, coupled with Argentina's natural riches, led to an economic boom in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, but Argentina's development path was abruptly cut short by the 1930 coup, the closing off of Argentina's export markets during the depression, and the institution of Peronist populism in the 1940s. The 1930 coup broke Argentina's constitutional order for the first time since Alberdi's 1853 Constitution. Garcia Hamilton, echoing an argument Juan Jose Sebreli put forward in a 2002 book, said that the 1930 coup was a logical conclusion to decades of emphasis on nationalism and militarism in Argentine public schools. "In order to integrate the millions of immigrants and to preserve Argentine culture, the elites promoted nationalism and militarism in the public school system, based on the German and Japanese models. Children were taught that the ideal Argentine leaders were the soldier that died poor and the gauchos. This was a divergence from the philosophy of the republican democracy of Alberdi." ¶8. (SBU) The onset of the world depression hit Argentina's export-driven economy hard. Garcia Hamilton argued that during the Depression of the 1930s, Argentines began to see Argentina as a victim, a view that many Argentines continue to hold. During World War II, Argentina lost access to imported products because of the war and the Allied embargo imposed on Argentina because of its failure to declare war on the Axis powers until the closing days of the conflict. Largely inefficient industries were developed to replace the loss of imports for the domestic market. Originally designed as a temporary measure during the war, these noncompetitive industries were kept alive in the post-war period through decades of import substitution, high-tariff policies first initiated under Juan Peron's administration. ¶9. (SBU) For Garcia Hamilton, Peron's first presidency carried with it much of the militaristic traditions of the previous decade and a half, but also infused Argentine political culture with a welfare state mentality and BUENOS AIR 00002229 003 OF 004 dramatically altered the Argentine social structure with the imposition of a fascist, corporatist economic system. "From Evita Peron, Argentines learned that the best government is the one that gives gifts to the people." Peron studied economics in Turin, Italy in the 1930s during Mussolini's fascist dictatorship. Upon assuming the presidency in 1946, Peron sought to implement the fascist corporatist model in Argentina, with organized labor unified and controlled in the General Confederation of Workers Union (CGT) and big industry in the Industrial Union of Argentina (UIA). Peron, following the Mussolini model of the state control over the relationship between capital and labor, personally set wages. One of Peron's lasting legacies is the strong, politicized labor movement that has bedeviled reform-minded governments ever since. ¶10. (C) Garcia Hamilton sees President Kirchner as more Peron than Alberdi, but emphasizes that Argentina's republican democratic tradition is still alive in the Argentine polity. "Both traditions exist simultaneously in the Argentine people." Garcia Hamilton added, "The Kirchners try to imitate the Perons, particularly Cristina, who has modeled herself on Evita Peron. The Argentine people have tolerated this imagery, but they will not do so permanently. The Kirchners act like monarchs, and this runs counter to Argentina's democratic values." ¶11. (C) Garcia Hamilton argued that Argentina's democracy is weaker today than it was 20 years ago. "Despite the threats 20 years ago from the military, Argentina's Congress, Justice system, academic institutions, and free press were stronger then and had a larger role in contributing to the democracy than they do today. Many journalists today are afraid to write anything that will anger the government. Most businessman and opposition leaders today are also afraid to seriously oppose the government. We have also possibly entered a new era of McCarthyism with the incident that happened to Juan Jose Alvarez." (Note: The local press revealed recently, allegedly based on a Casa Rosada source, that opposition Congressman Juan Jose Alvarez had worked for the state intelligence agency SIDE during the military dictatorship. Alvarez has been one of the chief dissident Peronist backers of the presidential candidacy of Roberto Lavagna, whose campaign was dealt a blow by the Alvarez revelations. End Note.) -------------- Kirchner's Abrasive Foreign Policy Popular -------------- ¶12. (C) On international relations, he argued that Kirchner's verbal attacks against the IMF and foreign leaders and their policies are popular with an Argentine public that still feels they were victimized by foreign interests during the recent economic crisis. "Kirchner's anti-foreign rhetoric is popular in Argentina. They like to see their President appearing to defend the country's interests abroad." Garcia Hamilton said that there is a general feeling among Argentines that the country was humiliated during the crisis, which has significantly increased anti-U.S. sentiment in Argentina, fueled more by jealousy than a sense that the U.S. did not help Argentina during the crisis. ¶13. (C) When asked what the USG could do to improve relations with the GOA, Garcia Hamilton replied that there was not a lot we could do, other than avoiding diplomatic gaffes. "This government is very sensitive to any perceived slights. However, most things that this government wants from the U.S. are dependent on Argentine government action, not the USG. For example, Kirchner wants to attract more U.S. foreign investment, but he will have to restore investor confidence in order to do this." However, Garcia Hamilton did urge the U.S. to "put limits" on Kirchner through behind the scenes diplomacy. He felt that Kirchner has too few domestic limits on his actions and argued that the USG could help to keep Kirchner from making extreme decisions. BUENOS AIR 00002229 004 OF 004 ¶14. (C) One area that Garcia Hamilton expressed concern about was Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's influence on Argentina and the region. "Venezuela's inclusion in Mercosur has fundamentally changed the nature of the organization. It is affecting the institutional quality of the organization and will also have a damaging effect on Argentina's institutions over the long term." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶15. (C) A good grasp of Argentine history is critical to the understanding of the country's current political situation, as Argentina has been condemned so often to repeat the mistakes of the past. Past periods of hegemonic political control have always ended in instability throughout Argentine history, from the Conservative hegemonic rule of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, to the UCR hegemonic rule between 1916 and 1930, and the Peronist hegemonic period of 1946-1955, and to a degree 1973-1976. Past hegemonic leaders lost public support over time when their actions weakened or closed channels of dissent through the debilitation of Argentina's democratic institutions. Everything in the political system depended on the personal power of the hegemonic leader, and when that leader's power was weakened through crisis, from Hipolito Yrigoyen in 1930 or Juan Peron in 1955, the whole system collapsed. ¶16. (C) Since las October's legislative elections, Kirchner has passed from being a transition figure bringing political and economic stability to Argentina after a serious crisis, to another in a long line of Argentine hegemonic leaders. Kirchner's recent moves to largely strip the Argentine Congress of its budget-making authority and increase his control over the Judiciary, as well as his vocal attacks on unfriendly journalists, all fit within the Argentine hegemonic leader mold. Unable to check Kirchner's actions, the weak and divided political opposition lack any real authority in the political system. Unlike past hegemonic leaders, however, Kirchner does not face the threat of a military intervention in politics. However, as the experiences of former Presidents Raul Alfonsin and Fernando de la Rua demonstrate, the military has not been the only threat to stable governance in Argentine history. ¶17. (C) Currently it appears that Kirchner has nothing to worry about -- he is very popular and well situated to win reelection if he chooses to run for reelection next year, as is widely assumed. However, as he contemplates another four years in power -- or even four years of indirect rule, if he decides to have his wife Cristina run for President in 2007 -- he undoubtedly remembers the experience of Carlos Menem, who was very popular during his first term during an economic boom period, but who fell into disrepute during his second term as the economy fell into recession, and later into a full-blown crisis. If Kirchner hopes to avoid Menem's fate, he will need to do what no other hegemonic leader has done in Argentine history -- curb his appetite for greater power and instead strengthen Argentina's democratic institutions. Only then will Argentina develop a political system that can withstand future crises. Kirchner's actions to date do not inspire much optimism in this regard. MATERA