ARGENTINA: MEETING WITH OPPOSITION RADICAL CIVIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 002214 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: MEETING WITH OPPOSITION RADICAL CIVIC UNION PARTY LEADERS REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 01978 ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 01324 Classified By: CDA Michael Matera for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On September 22, Charge, PolCouns, and Poloffs met with opposition Radical Civic Union (UCR) party leaders to discuss the state of the party and the Argentine multi-party system. They explained that while they are concerned for the health of their party as Kirchner tries to recruit from within their ranks, they remain optimistic about the UCR's chances for a strong showing in the presidential elections next year. They said the UCR will probably support ex-Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna as their presidential candidate next year. The Radicals said that they see Kirchner as moving to solidify his power and that this makes him more difficult to beat in elections but not invincible. They said Argentina currently does not have a foreign policy, owing to a lack of vision of what role Argentina should play in the international arena. END SUMMARY. -------------- Health of the UCR -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On September 22, Charge, PolCouns, and Poloffs met with opposition Radical Civic Union (UCR) party leaders over lunch to discuss the state of the party and the Argentine multi-party system. National Congressman and President of the Radical Party Robert Iglesias, National Senator and President of the Senate Radical Party Bloc Ernesto Sanz, President of the Radical Party National Convention Dr. Adolfo Stubrin, and BA city Radical Party leader, former Congressman, and former Minister of Economy Dr. Jesus Rodriguez attended the lunch on behalf of the UCR. The group explained that they are concerned for the health of their party as Kirchner tries to recruit from within their ranks. Nevertheless, they remain optimistic about the UCR's chances for a strong showing in the presidential elections next year. They feel there is plenty of time for Kirchner's popularity to wane and for their candidate to gain. The key challenge to the UCR and other opposition parties is how to explain the danger of weak institutions to an electorate that is pleased with the health of the economy. However, they conceded the UCR is split over how to counter Kirchner's power. One camp thinks the party should concentrate its efforts within the UCR to counter Kirchner, while the other thinks the party should make alliances with other opposition groups. They agreed that ex-Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna would likely end up being the UCR presidential candidate. -------------- UCR Views on Kirchner and Foreign Policy -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Radicals said that they see Kirchner as moving to solidify his power and that this will make him more difficult to beat in next year's elections. They claimed, however, that Kirchner's aura of invincibility was damaged when he failed to win more than 50 percent of the vote in last October's legislative elections. They said Kirchner controls the national discourse by never holding press conferences, and that newspapers act as tools of the government by not publishing stories because of government pressure or by publishing reports that Kirchner's people have drafted. They claimed Kirchner is the only leader in the world that does not meet with his cabinet, leaving him unadvised on many issues. Furthermore, the people around Kirchner are afraid to tell him when things may not be going well. They feel he ""jumps"" on issues without thinking of a strategy first, making his politics and his governing very reactive and short term -- characteristics they say could lead to a long-term decline in his popularity. ¶4. (SBU) The Radicals said that Argentina currently does not have a foreign policy. They said that Argentina is unsure of what role it wants to play in the international arena, and therefore has no organized foreign policy. They see Argentina's interaction with Venezuela as simply business. They feel that Venezuelan President Chavez is probably just making money off of Argentina and that there is no deeper foreign policy basis for the relationship. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: For a party which barely drew double digit support in last year's elections and is deeply divided internally, their optimism about the future is hard to take very seriously. Likewise, their view that Kirchner was weakened by his failure to receive more than 50 percent of the vote in the October 2005 elections is not validated by Kirchner's near 70 percent approval ratings. However, the UCR remains the only non-Peronist party with a national infrastructure and this by itself will guarantee the party a BUENOS AIR 00002214 002 OF 002 role in next year's elections, either as a vehicle for Lavagna or as a partner in a broader opposition coalition. END COMMENT. MATERA ...