ARGENTINA: TOP POLITICAL LEADERS FROM KEY PROVINCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 002122 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO NSC FOR DAN FISK TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE USCINCSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: TOP POLITICAL LEADERS FROM KEY PROVINCE ON POLITICS AND ECONOMY REF: A. 02 BUENOS AIRES 02403 ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 00293 Classified By: CDA, a.i., Michael Matera, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On September 13, Charge and Poloff met with leading Peronist from Santa Fe province, Senator Carlos Reutemann, and Poloff met separately with leading candidate for Governor of Santa Fe, Socialist Hermes Binner. Reutemann said that Kirchner will continue to succeed politically as long as the economy remained strong. Reutemann noted President Kirchner's tendency to give one message in private and another in public, which he felt had damaged relations with the U.S. Socialist Congressman Hermes Binner highlighted Santa Fe's booming agricultural economy during a talk at the Club de la Union Nacional. Although Binner avoided discussion about political candidacies, Binner was critical of some of Kirchner's policies and his concentration of power. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On September 13, Charge and Poloff met with leading Peronist from Santa Fe province, Senator Carlos Reutemann, and Poloff met separately with leading candidate for Governor of Santa Fe, Socialist Hermes Binner. Reutemann, who chairs the Argentine Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told Charge that the Congress now has a very limited role in the political process. Asked about his committee, Reutemann replied, ""Foreign Ministry officials make their decisions personally, without consulting us. Of course, in reality, all of the decisions in this country are made by two or three people."" Reutemann also said that the Peronist Party (PJ) was absent from the political system. ""There are a few people, such as (Salta Governor Carlos) Romero and (former Senator Ramon) Puerta that are trying to revive the PJ, but it will not amount to much. It is difficult to build anything without the national government's support because they control all of the resources."" ¶3. (SBU) Reutemann said that Kirchner will continue to succeed politically as long as the economy remained strong. Reutemann felt that the economy would continue to be good, at least until 2008, when problems could begin to develop. Reutemann thought that former Economy Minister Roberto Lavanga was the only opposition leader that stood a chance of competing with Kirchner in 2007, but said he thought that Kirchner would ultimately win reelection. Reutemann did not think that the GOA price controls would function in the long-run, but argued that Kirchner's principal objective is to ensure that the 2006 inflation figures are lower than the 2005 figures to enable Kirchner to argue that he is better able to control inflation than was Lavagna in his last year as Economy Minister. (Note: Lavagna was fired by Kirchner at the end of November 2005. End Note.) ¶4. (C) Reutemann noted President Kirchner's tendency to give one message in private and another in public, which he felt had damaged relations with the U.S. Reutemann argued that Kirchner's ""double-speak"" in Monterey, Mexico and poor performance in Mar del Plata had left a bad impression on President Bush. Reutemann indicated that he wished the political situation was different. ""I would have been a better President."" (COMMENT: Carlos Reutemann, leading in presidential opinion polls in 2002, was former President Eduardo Duhalde's first choice to succeed him as President. Reutemann turned down Duhalde's offer reportedly because he did not want to compete against his former mentor Carlos Menem (See reftel A). More recently, Reutemann turned down President Kirchner's offer to be his candidate for Governor of Santa Fe in 2007. Reutemann protege and Congresswoman Maria del Carmen Alarcon told PolCouns and Poloff that Reutemann does not want to run for Governor because of the potential that corruption he was involved in when he was previously Governor might come to light during the campaign. It is rumored that President Kirchner asked Reutemann to accompany him on his current trip to the U.S. in order to personally ask Reutemann to reconsider running for Governor. END COMMENT.) BUENOS AIR 00002122 002 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) Socialist Congressman Hermes Binner highlighted Santa Fe's booming agricultural economy during a talk at the Club de la Union Nacional. Binner noted that Santa Fe is Argentina's largest beef and milk exporter, accounting for 40 and 50 percent of the country's total, respectively. Binner said that the province's exports of grain has grown from a level of less than 4.8 billion dollars annually during the economic crisis to 7.7 billion dollars today. Binner called for a greater partnership between the government and the private sector to ensure that this economic growth continues. ¶6. (SBU) Although Binner avoided talk about political candidacies, Binner was critical of some of Kirchner's policies and his concentration of power. Binner deflected questions about his future political plans and that of his party, ""There is still a whole year to go before the elections, and people are fed up with politicians who, upon being elected, immediately begin campaigning for another job. We must honor those who voted us into office."" Binner was highly critical, however, of the GOA ban on beef exports. ""We are lucky that soy is not consumed locally, or it would be banned too."" Binner also criticized Kirchner's recent reform of the Council of Magistrates that gave the Casa Rosada more control over the Judiciary (See reftel B). Binner noted that other agricultural powerhouses like Australia and Canada developed booming economies while enjoying strong democracies. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Carlos Reutemann and Hermes Binner are currently the two most important political figures in Argentina's fourth largest electoral district. Given Reutemann's unwillingness to run, it seems highly likely that Binner will win the gubernatorial elections next year, giving the political opposition an important success in what is otherwise likely to be a bleak electoral year. Also, coming from opposite sides of the political spectrum, their criticism of Kirchner's concentration of power is a clear reminder that Kirchner's authoritarian tendencies have earned him Peronist and non-Peronist critics. END COMMENT. MATERA