MEDIA REACTION EVO MORALES-U.S.-ARGENTINA,

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000212 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION EVO MORALES-U.S.-ARGENTINA, PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS, WORLD SOCIAL FORUM-CHAVEZ; BUENOS AIRES 01/26/06 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Key stories today focus on the strong U.S. interest in Bolivia and President Kirchner's alleged decision to play a regional role in moderating Evo Morales; election outcomes for Hamas and implications for the Middle East peace process, and the World Social Forum organized by Chavez in Caracas, with strong accusations of manipulating the event to satisfy his political goals and promote the government's social plans, while lavishly spending public funds on publicity. ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES - "U.S. Wink to Uphold Evo Morales" Jorge Elias, daily-of-record, center-right "La Nacion" international analyst, writes (01/26) ".... (During his meeting with President Kirchner some days ago) A/S Shannon showed the same interest in Bolivia George W. Bush had expressed at the Mar del Plata Summit. "Such interest in the GOA's regional influence led a Foreign Ministry source to comment that 'Bolivia is our business, more than it is Brazil's.' ".... Kirchner's presence at Morales' inauguration on Sunday... wasn't overlooked by the Bush administration. "In La Paz, Shannon expressed to Foreign Minister Taiana his satisfaction with the meeting he had had with Morales on Saturday... they agreed that one wasn't going to give in on the issue of coca plantations and the other wasn't going to yield on his apprehension vis--vis cocaine. "Between these extreme positions, according to the source, Kirchner felt the need to uphold Morales and, at the same time keep Hugo Chavez in check, who's tempted to set up a base in the areas where he contributed to (Morales') victory. "At some point, the Bush administration made the mistake of engaging Mexico -- a country outside the Southern Cone -- with Bolivia, due to its interest in importing gas. And it paid a high price for this. ".... Kirchner and Lula, due to their proximity, became the umpires of this crisis and guarantors of governance. However, Brazil is dependent on a large provision of Bolivian gas, a situation that leaves Argentina less dependent on energy and in a better position to take over - as a priority - Morales' eventual success...." - "Worrying About Evo" James Neilson, Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" international analyst, says (01/26) ".... Morales won big in the elections not just because most of his compatriots thought anything would be better than more of the same, but also because many appreciated that the only way to stop him from destroying the next government would be to let him head it... Bolivians decided to try putting one of their country's most notorious arsonists in charge of the fire brigade in the hope it would make him change his ways. ".... Like so many other people in this part of the world, Morales is fond of berating 'neoliberalism'... but simply declaring the beast dead... will not free him from the need to get aong with it. For Bolivia to progress under his government, he will have to do what it takes to create a business-friendly environment by improving the legal system, tearing up bureaucratic red tape and opening up to the outside world...." - "From Cairo to Amman, Islamic Groups Move Forward in the Ballot Boxes" Dolores Tereso, daily-of-record, center-right "La Nacion" international columnist, opines (01/26) "Most likely, this isn't what President Bush had in mind when he launched his democratization campaign in the Middle East. "From the Palestinian territories to Lebanon, and from Egypt to Jordan, the progress of democracy in the region has led to an undesired effect, at least from Washington's viewpoint: instead of upholding moderate and pro-West parties, elections are strengthening Islamic Fundamentalist groups that are critical of the U.S. "The second place obtained by Hamas yesterday in the Palestinian elections is the last example of this phenomenon. ".... These Islamic organizations are proposing a message of change vis--vis the failure of governments that perpetuate themselves in power, but are unable to solve the problems of the people. And, in part, Washington's policies in the region also seem responsible for the strengthening of these groups. ".... By pushing forward democracy (in the Middle East) the U.S. risks these radical Islamic groups may obtain legitimacy through elections, and turn their countries into anti-U.S. theocracies. "Therefore, Washington faces a dilemma: its support for democracy doesn't allow it to ban the participation of these organizations - many of them even referred to as 'terrorist' -- from elections. "But there are also those who remember what took place in Algeria -- where making the Islamic Salvation Front illegal in 1992 led to a civil war -. They believe that including these groups in political life is the best way to force them to leave violence behind. Once they enter politics, they realize that it's better for them to drop their weapons. ".... This is what the most optimistic sectors expect from Hamas. ".... The major question mark is whether political participation may turn these groups into moderate parties, respectful of democracy, or if, instead, they will follow Iran's steps, where the Islamic regime keeps sending disturbing signals to the Western world, with its calls to 'destroy' Israel and the resumption of its controversial nuclear program. "There's something Washington must bear in mind: albeit with controls in the electoral process, Ahmadinejad was also elected in the ballot-boxes." - "Terror's Internal Battle" Marcelo Cantelmi, leading, centrist "Clarin" international editor, opines (01/26) "The immediate conclusion of these elections, the objective fact, is that the terrorist group Hamas obtained more political space and importance via the democratic mechanism promoted by the White House as the linear solution to Middle East calamities. As we know, terrorism results from extreme poverty and the lack of a future: a contradiction not only fuelled by the Palestinians. Therefore, there's another aspect we can't ignore. The fact of going to elections generates a rift in Hamas' ruthless speech and announces an internal and crucial battle within this group. The lack of political parties in the Middle East and most Arab countries is the reason and cause of the crisis and even of terror. A door to the unknown has been opened. Hopefully, it won't lead to a dead-end street." - "A Strategic Change that Triggers Several Political Effects" Telma Luzzani, on special assignment in Jerusalem for leading, centrist "Clarin", says (01/26) ".... The first thing we must underscore in the Palestinian elections is precisely its strict support for the broadest rules of democracy. ".... One of the most significant facts is Hamas' decision to enter politics. In truth, this organization hasn't automatically abandoned its principles by which it doesn't acknowledge the State of Israel, or its suicidal attacks as method of battle, or the creation of an Islamic State with Jerusalem as capital. Perhaps it will never set them aside or it may be that, in time, it might change all of them. "But we must also admit that, as a political movement, Hamas includes a broad spectrum of hawks and doves. Much will depend on the pressures or the international aid so that the more moderate lines, the ones that pressed to take part in these elections, will prevail over those that believe victory can only be achieved through weapons. "Hamas' strategic change has also produced political effects. Although the official figures aren't known yet and supposedly Al Fatah will maintain its majority in Congress, clearly Arafat's party has lost its political hegemony forever. The other side of the same coin is the appearance of a strong opposition party in the political scenario of the Palestinian Authority: Reform and Change (Hamas.) ".... In the international field and in its relations with Israel, the presence of Hamas is more an obstacle rather than a relief for the Palestinians. Due to its terrorist actions, both the U.S. and Israel have said they won't negotiate with a government in which they take part...." - "Chavez: Spendthrift at World Social Forum" Conservative, business-financial and political "Ambito Financiero" says (01/26) "This week, in Caracas, Chavez is exultant with the thousands of Latin American leftist activists that are frantically buying the merchandising with the Bolivarian leader's image. The World Social Forum, which this year moved from Porto Alegre to the Venezuelan capital, doesn't count on the presence of any Latin American president except Chavez, who, in solitude, is harassed by accusations of dark deals in the financing of the WSF. "Chavez's omnipresent figure is denounced by the opposition as manipulating the event to satisfy his political means. Even Caracas left-wing parties distrust him. According to opposition leader Alfredo Ramos, from left-wing party Causa Radical, 'This Forum is an act organized by the President to project himself as a Latin American leader, but using public funds.' WSF organizers believe the Venezuelan State may have granted 70,000 dollars to finance the event via 53 public organizations, but the opposition and the press estimate that the event might cost 9 million dollars. ".... In addition, the government is taking advantage of the event to promote its social plans...." ¶3. To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires The Media Reaction Report reflects articles and opinions by the cited news media and do not necessarily reflect U.S. Embassy policy or views. The Public Affairs Section does not independently verify information. The report is intended for internal U.S. Government use only. GUTIERREZ