THE LEADING CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION LEADER ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BUENOS AIRES 001912

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DAN FISK
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE
USCINCSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: THE LEADING CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION LEADER ON
ARGENTINA'S POLITICAL SITUATION

REF: 05 BUENOS AIRES 01391

Classified By: CDA, a.i., Michael Matera, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

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SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION
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1. (C) On August 24, ADCM and Poloff (notetaker) met with
center-left opposition leader Elisa Carrio, who gave her view
of the current political situation in Argentina. Elisa
Carrio began the discussion with her analysis of President
Kirchner's foreign policy, which she argued was marked by a
confrontational style and a dangerous relationship with
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. In a surprising admission,
Carrio said that Kirchner's relationship with the USG is the
only thing that is moderating Kirchner's alliance with
Chavez. Carrio lamented in her words the lack of strategic
vision that Brazil has, praised Chilean President Bachelet,
and urged the U.S. to do everything we can to ensure that
President Garcia succeeds in Peru to prevent ""another
Chavez.""


2. (C) Turning to domestic politics, Elisa Carrio argued
that President Kirchner would likely win reelection in 2007,
but that Kirchner's government would fail in the long term.
Carrio argued the opposition needed to be ready to assume
power when Kirchner falls and said that opposition alliances
only made it easier for Kirchner to poach new allies. Asked
about the future of her old party, the Radical Civic Union
(UCR),she said the party was dying. Carrio reported good
relations with Republican Proposal (PRO) leaders Maurcio
Macri and Ricardo Lopez Murphy, but disagreed with their
vision to solve the country's crime problem. Regarding ARI
and her own future, she said it was good for her to step
aside from the party leadership and expressed confidence that
she and ARI would eventually run the country. Carrio also
lamented Argentina's weak institutions and the lack of
intelligent debate in the Argentine Congress.


3. (C) Background: Elisa Carrio is the most significant
center-left opposition figure in Argentina. She ran for
President in 2003, coming in fifth place. She is currently a
member of the Lower House of Congress, representing the City
of Buenos Aires. She is a declared candidate for the 2007
presidential elections. Carrio has recently given up her
leadership role in the party she founded in 2001, Affirmation
for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI),but she remains ARI's
presidential candidate and continues to have regular contact
with ARI's leadership. ARI has been plagued by several
recent defections to President Kirchner's alliance and
disputes within the party over a controversial birth control
bill, which led Carrio to step aside from her party
leadership position. Poloff met on August 23 with Fernando
Cantero, the leader of ARI's bloc in the Buenos Aires City
Legislature, who strongly criticized Carrio's authoritarian
tendencies and failure to explain her meetings with
center-right politicians like Ricardo Lopez Murphy and
Patricia Bullrich to the party faithful. (For more on Elisa
Carrio and ARI, see reftel.) END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION.

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ARGENTINA'S CONFRONTATIONAL FOREIGN POLICY
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4. (C) On August 24, ADCM and Poloff (notetaker) met with
center-left opposition leader Elisa Carrio, who gave her view
of the current political situation in Argentina. Elisa
Carrio began the discussion with her analysis of President
Kirchner's foreign policy, which she argued was marked by a
confrontational style and a dangerous relationship with
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. ""Kirchner picks fights
with everyone in the region. It was wrong for Kirchner to
snub Peruvian President Garcia by skipping his inauguration.
Kirchner has also created conflicts with Uruguay and
Paraguay."" Carrio attributed Kirchner's confrontational
style to his background in Patagonia and insular style.

BUENOS AIR 00001912 002 OF 004


""Everyone on the outside is viewed as an enemy. He has
little understanding of the larger world.""


5. (C) Carrio argued that Kirchner's relationship with
Chavez is based primarily on corrupt business deals managed
by Planning Minister Julio De Vido, but carried with it
serious dangers because it could draw Argentina into the
Mideast conflict because of Chavez's close relations with
Iran. ""Kirchner can disagree publicly with Chavez on certain
issues, but that will never affect the business deals that he
and De Vido have with Chavez."" For Carrio, the relationship
with Venezuela was risky. ""The United States is deeply
involved in the Mideast conflict and Europe cannot avoid it.
Latin American can and should avoid being drawn into the
conflict. Chavez's relationship with Iran is dangerous and
could pull Argentina into the conflict.""


6. (C) In a surprising admission, Carrio said that
Kirchner's relationship with the USG is the only thing that
is moderating Kirchner's alliance with Chavez. For Carrio,
there are limits on how far Kirchner is willing to go with
Chavez because Kirchner does not want a major conflict with
the United States. ""Kirchner will never seek a serious
conflict with the United States. He is fascinated with the
U.S., even though he only really knows New York.""


7. (C) Carrio lamented in her words the lack of strategic
vision that Brazil has, praised Chilean President Bachelet,
and urged the U.S. to do everything we can to ensure that
President Garcia succeeds in Peru to prevent ""another
Chavez."" Carrio argued that Brazil's lack of strategic
vision and weakness in the region has allowed Chavez to gain
influence in the region, which is compounded by Kirchner's
alliance with Chavez. She acknowledged that many people hope
the situation will improve after Brazilian President Lula
wins re-election, but she herself was not optimistic. She
said she saw a lot of herself in Chilean President Bachelet
and thought Bachelet would be successful. Carrio argued that
Peruvian runner-up Ollanta Humala was another Chavez that
would assume power in Peru if President Garcia failed.



8. (C) Carrio said that Bolivian President Morales was not
like Chavez and instead represented the legitimate desire of
the Bolivian indigenous majority for a political voice.
""Don't confuse Morales with Chavez. Morales has to succeed
in order to preserve social order in Bolivia. He needs to be
like Nelson Mandela in South Africa.""


9. (C) On Cuba, Carrio said that the GOC was a dictatorship.
""For me, Fidel Castro was a hero at one time, and the Cuban
revolution had a legitimate original purpose. Now, however,
we have to recognize that it has just become a dictatorship.""


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DOMESTIC SITUATION BLEAK, BUT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT LONG TERM
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10. (C) Elisa Carrio argued that President Kirchner would
likely win reelection in 2007, but that Kirchner's government
would fail in the long term. Carrio said that despite
Kirchner's apparent political strength, his support is thin.
""Kirchner is an evil that is very wide, but only three
centimeters deep. Unlike Alfonsin and Menem, Kirchner lacks
charisma, and no one has a great love for him. Even his
closest associates would prefer not to stand next to him.
Kirchner has no real political party, since the Peronist
Party structure is gone. Also, since the crisis, Argentina
has lacked the political corporate solidarity that it once
had to support a president in crisis. When the next crisis
hits, Kirchner could fall very quickly."" She said that
Kirchner will not be able to modify the Constitution to run
again in 2011 because he will fall before he has a chance.


11. (C) Carrio argued the opposition needed to be ready to
assume power when Kirchner falls and said that opposition

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alliances only made it easier for Kirchner to poach new
allies. Carrio noted that ARI has been training thousands of
activists over the past several years on how to properly run
a functioning government. Carrio said that ARI has avoided
being involved in opposition alliances to prevent the
dilution of their political force, which she said would only
benefit Kirchner. ""In ARI we have 15 percent of the vote
that Kirchner cannot touch. The proposed opposition alliance
will be a marriage of the worst of Radicalismo and Duhaldismo
in support of Lavagna. Lavagna will lose in the end and then
Kirchner will co-opt most of the alliance's legislators.""


12. (C) Asked about the future of her old party, the Radical
Civic Union (UCR),she said the party was dying. ""The party
convention that is starting tomorrow is the beginning of the
end."" Carrio said that the Radicales that align with
Kirchner will be absorbed into Peronism within a few years,
as the Peronists have done with several other parties that
have aligned with it over the past 60 years.


13. (C) Carrio reported good relations with Republican
Proposal (PRO) leaders Maurcio Macri and Ricardo Lopez
Murphy, but disagreed with their vision to solve the
country's crime problem. Carrio said that the crime issue
was too important to be entrusted to the center-right, who
want to solve the problem by changing the penal code to
increase sentences. Carrio argued that the real source of
the crime problem was poverty and drugs. Carrio said that
Carlos Bloomberg had become the center of the anti-crime
campaign, which was problematic because Bloomberg was
vulnerable to attack by Kirchner because of a potential fraud
scandal involving a failed Bloomberg business several years
ago. The center-right's control over the crime issue played
into Kirchner's hands, Carrio argued. ""Kirchner wants to
create the appearance of a fight between the rich and the
poor, where he is seen as the defender of the poor. Kirchner
uses D'Elia to help create this situation and Bloomberg is a
convenient target.""


14. (C) Regarding ARI and her own future, she said it was
good for her to step aside from the party leadership and
expressed confidence that she and ARI would eventually run
the country. ""They (the ARI leadership) need to learn to
take responsibility. They have shifted left since I stepped
down, but it is all part of the development process. ARI is
a small party, but one day it will govern the country.""
Carrio said that the polls show people admire her, but the
majority of people would never vote for her. ""I talk about
the need for a 20-year plan to change this country, about the
need for a Moncloa Pact in this country between labor,
business and the government. Argentines want someone to give
them a short-term solution and there are no short-term
solutions to Argentina's problems. The people need to change
their way of thinking.""


15. (C) Carrio lamented Argentina's weak institutions and
the lack of intelligent debate in the Argentine Congress.
""When I first entered Congress in 1995, the members of
Congress could at least debate issues and reach agreements,
even the Menemists. Now, there is no debate. Everyone is
too scared of saying something that will offend Kirchner and
most legislators lack the formation to carry on an
intelligent debate on the issues."" Carrio said that the
Supreme Court was the only remaining independent institution
in the country. Carrio argued that Kirchner did not fill the
two vacancies on the court because he regretted the
independent justices that he appointed early in his term.
Carrio said that Kirchner planned to appoint cronies to the
court after he wins election, starting with Legal and
Technical Secretary Carlos Zannini.

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COMMENT
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16. (C) Elisa Carrio's broad education and her log
experience in Argentine politics make her an interesting

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person to talk to about the country's political situation.
She is also one of the few Argentine political leaders that
seems to genuinely care about the health of the country's
democratic institutions. Carrio has had difficult time
explaining how to translate her broad proposals and solutions
into concrete reality. As a result, polls show that although
Argentines generally like Carrio's discourse and think that
she makes a positive contribution to the dialogue in
Congress, they would be reluctant to vote for her for an
executive position. Her apparent inability to manage her own
party only adds to this impression. Carrio will need to
demonstrate her management skills to the Argentine public in
the coming years or risk permanently surrendering the
leadership of the opposition to the center-right. We will
continue to meet with Carrio periodically in the coming year
to assist our political reporting in the run-up to next
year's presidential elections.

MATERA