MIDDLE EAST WAR; CUBA; IDB LOAN FOR ARGENTINA; VENEZUELAN

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001744 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: MIDDLE EAST WAR; CUBA; IDB LOAN FOR ARGENTINA; VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT CHAVEZ; PERUVIAN PRESIDENT-ELECT ALAN GARCIA 08/03/06 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Today's key international stories include the implications of the war in the Middle East; US foreign policy; the situation in Cuba; the danger posed by Venezuelan President Chavez to Mercosur and the world; and expectations about the Alan Garcia administration. ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES - "Apocalypse now, perhaps" James Neilson, contributor to liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald," writes (08/03) "Hezbollah, the 'Party of God' is a ferociously anti-Semitic organization that wants to destroy Israel and all its inhabitants. "... In military terms it seems that Israel is just getting the better of Hezbollah, but even if from now on everything went its way it could still end up the loser... "In the unlikely event that Hezbollah were expelled from Southern Lebanon, it would merely regroup elsewhere and avenge itself with more attacks with increasingly potent rockets... "... Hezbollah would not have reached its present size and strength without the money, arms and specialized manpower that it gets from the religious zealots in charge of Iran... "But both Israel and the Western powers, which in practice means the US, are reluctant to take their own thesis to its logical conclusion for fear of bigger wars in the Middle East, more terrorist atrocities and huge protest demonstrations... "Israel's decision to do what is necessary to dismantle Hezbollah may gain it another breathing space, but it will not be safe until an overwhelming majority of Moslems concede it the right to live in peace. "... About the only thing that could halt it in its tracks would be a premature attack by Iran that spurred the US into action. One may be on the cards." - "A dangerous boomerang" Santiago O'Donnell, columnist of left-of-center "Pagina 12," opines (08/03) "The war has just entered its most critical stage. The Qana massacre... did not affect Washington's support for Israel's war plan but it shortened the USG's timing. Bush urgently sent Condoleezza Rice to the region but the price he is paying at home has turned out intolerable. "Opinion surveys are awful for him. Less than three months away from legislative elections, in which he will run a serious risk to lose his majority in both chambers, his foreign policy in the Middle East has become a dangerous boomerang. Even prominent Republican leaders like Richard Armitage have criticized him. Democrats have managed to get united for the first time since the beginning of the invasion of Iraq and have asked the US president to start withdrawing troops and to negotiate with Syria and Iran a solution to the crisis. "... The idea of Bush's hawks is to stop the growth of the Iranian influence in the region. US analysts have coined a phrase to describe the situation, 'proxy war' between military forces representing the interests of the USG and Iran, this is Israel and Hezbollah, respectively." - "The US Congress and media ask for a lift on the US embargo on Cuba" Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," comments (08/03) "While the US media favored yesterday a lift on the US embargo on Cuba, the Bush administration reiterated that Fidel's replacement by his brother Raul has not implied that transition towards democracy has started on the island. "A group of senators led by Republican John Ensign submitted a draft bill promoting a multilateral effort from the US and the countries of the region. "The purpose is to plan a regional strategy for a transition to democracy in Cuba and channel up to 80 million dollars in direct aid for dissidents and political democratic activists on the island. However, the draft bill does not include a clause lifting the embargo, something that will probably be objected to by the entire region." - "Washington's plans if there is a change on the island" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (08/03) "Unwilling to negotiate with Raul Castro or any other figure of the Cuban Communist regime..., the US does not have much maneuvering margin to promote an effective transition on the island without contributing to the continuity of the current regime. "The Republican administration reiterated yesterday that it will maintain its isolation policy on Cuba, including its current controversial embargo as long as diplomatic bilateral talks are still the minimal talks that were established when US President George W. Bush took over. "Both countries only hold talks on matters related to the US automatic political asylum, which is granted by anyone reaching the US by his/her own means but not those who are detained by the Caribbean coast guard. "The White House's decision is for now to avoid taking false steps. It will wait until knowing for sure whether Fidel Castro will resume power or his brother Raul will take over..." - "An (IDB) loan reopens controversy about public rates" Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," writes (08/03) "During a very agitated meeting..., the IDB Board approved yesterday a 580-million-dollar loan to fund a 1,220 kilometer-long 500-kilowatt-electric transmission line. "The loan was approved by 55 vis-`-vis of votes (all Latin American directors, plus France and Spain)... while 45 per cent (the US, Germany, Japan, Italy and Canada) abstained from voting based on the fact that the Argentine public rates system has not been put in order yet." ¶3. EDITORIALS - "The real face of Hugo Chavez" An editorial in daily-of-record "La Nacion" reads (08/03) "Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's long world tour... is making clear his true foreign policy purposes, which should disturb his Mercosur partners... "It is unacceptable that the Venezuelan leader has chosen to reach a strategic alliance with Belarus, whose president has received international sanctions for his constant human rights violations... "... In Russia, Chavez signed deals for the purchase of armament for over one billion dollars... In return, Venezuela obtained Russia's support for its candidacy for a UN Security Council seat... "The most questionable fact of Chavez's tour occurred in Iran, with which Venezuela seems to have developed an increasing and suspicious operational privacy. This relationship should raise fear given the ties between Hezbollah and the Iranian regime... Chavez even compared Israel with Hitler, which is not only a horrible mistake but an unacceptable offense. "... Chavez's tour has confirmed his arrogance, his risky position on foreign policy matters, his increasing dangerousness for the peace and security of the region and the world, and his total lack of understanding about where good and evil are. "The Venezuelan president's behavior should immediately call the attention of Mercosur member countries because his extreme positions could jeopardize Mercosur's ties with the world. "Argentina should not support figures who contradict its own positions on international safety and balance." - "Another chance for Alan Garcia" An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (08/03) "Alan Garcia's presidential inauguration is a milestone in the Latin American scenario. Two decades ago, he ended his first administration with a negative result. "... Everyone agrees that Alan Garcia will have a second chance for claiming to be a good political leader... "For this purpose, he will have to build consensus based on congressional and social support, as well as implement a program for attaining economic growth and stability, social inclusion and an improvement in the status of the poor. "In the regional framework, we expect that the Garcia administration will contribute to soothing frictions with neighboring countries and strengthen the convergence procedure, which is a requisite for the peace and security of this part of the hemisphere." 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