WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST; US SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL; AL QAEDA

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001678 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST; US SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL; AL QAEDA ENTERING WAR; HEZBOLLAH AND THE ARAB COUNTRIES; PUTIN-CHAVEZ; VENEZUELA'S ENTRY INTO MERCOSUR; US-URUGUAYAN FTA; IMF-ARGENTINA; 07/28/06 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Local papers lead with the US support for Israel; Al Qaeda entering the confrontation; ties between Hezbollah and the Arab countries; the Russian-Venezuelan relationship; the "dangerous" implications of Venezuela's incorporation into Mercosur; an alleged US-Uruguayan FTA; and the IMF review of Argentina's current economic status. ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES - "Bush's support for Israel, a domestic policy issue" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (07/28) "US President George W. Bush's support for the Israeli offensive has bothered EU and China's leaders, who seek to agree on an immediate ceasefire. However, according to analysts, Bush's support for Israel is due to multiple elements of US domestic policy and, to lesser degree, to his foreign policy objectives. "According to The New York Times and CBS News, during a legislative elections year, 47 per cent of Americans believe that the White House has made the right decisions in the conflict so far, vis-`-vis 27%, who disapprove of them. "The percentage of support for President Bush is the highest he has had during recent months, well beyond the rate of support he receives on all other fronts. Americans believe he is a bad president and are pessimistic regarding the economic situation and the handling of the situation in Iraq. But they support President Bush when it comes to Israel. Why? "According to analysts Michael Bard and Daniel Pipe in a study for the Middle East Quarterly magazine, 'the tenor of the relationship between the US and Israel is not only very positive but also very deep.' Among other points, they mention the close ties in areas like foreign policy, strategic cooperation, economic ties, intellectual bonds, shared values and the religious aspect. "For instance, Israel supports up to 95% of US-promoted initiatives at the UN, well beyond allies like the UK. For their part, Americans have vetoed 32 resolutions against Israel since 1982. "...US support for Israel has triggered the hatred of Islamic fundamentalists, who accuse the US of being excessively partial and permissive with Israel, on which some top level academicians here agree." - "Hezbollah, the confusing factor" Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed page by writer Marcos Aguinis, who writes (07/28) "... Hezbollah is being supported by Iran and Syria due to three common elements - hatred of Israel, hatred of the US, and an ambiguous position on the creation of a Palestinian State in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank... "Never before have so many Arab and Muslim countries been detached like in this lamentable police cleansing operation that Israel is carrying out in an Arab country. There are only speeches, but not a firm action. They seem to be thanking them for the work that they dare not perform themselves. "Hezbollah poses a danger for Lebanon and the other Arab countries, which do not want to be dominated by Iran or merged in a fundamentalist totalitarian regime. However, Israel will not be able to destroy Hezbollah... It will only weaken it. Then, the Lebanese Government will likely be able to finish the work, with the support of foreign troops, or perhaps NATO, in order to seize the armament piled up in tunnels or civilian areas so that Lebanon may be rebuilt and be again one of the most beautiful, peaceful, cultured and progressive countries in the Middle East." - "Israel will recruit three divisions with more than 30,000 reservist troops" Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," writes (07/28) "The only sure thing yesterday in Israel was that war seems doomed to deepen and that Islamic extremists used this conflict as an excuse to get united. "... It is important to streamline what may be contradictory. Israel... officially considered that, based on the fact that the Rome conference did not come to any conclusions on the crisis, it authorized Israel to continue war. "It is in this light that we should understand the decision to increase its questioned bombings of Lebanon and its calling of more than 30,000 reservist troops..." - "The US accuses Chavez of dealing with 'narco-terrorists'" Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," writes (07/28) "Just like in the worst days of the Cold War, when Russia and the US turned Latin America into one of their battlefields, Venezuela has now become one of the scenarios of a tense bilateral relationship. "Yesterday, while Dan Burton, in US House of Representatives, was accusing Hugo Chavez of having contacts with FARC 'narco-terrorists' and having allowed drug-trafficking to hugely increase during his term of office, Russian leader Vladimir Putin received Chavez in Moscow and announced the sale of 24 airplanes and 54 helicopters to Caracas in spite of Washington's explicit request not to do it. US manufacturers are banned from selling armament to Venezuela. "Furthermore, while the US Department of State is doing everything it can to prevent Venezuela from obtaining a chair at the UN Security Council and is supporting Guatemala's candidacy, Putin has said that he will support Venezuela. This is one more piece of evidence of the influence Chavez's petrodollars are having on an international level. The armament deal signed between Venezuela and Russia is for a total amount of three billion dollars." - "The Mercosur of Chavez" Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" carries an opinion piece by contributor Daniel Roque Vitolo, who comments (07/28) "As a renowned political analyst likes to say 'even though Hugo Chavez is not a serious leader, the political phenomenon he created should be taken absolutely seriously.' No other definition seems more adequate for what has happened with Venezuela's incorporation into Mercosur... "... Chavez's empathic ties with the Arab world, his fondness for North Korea's cause, and his visit to Iran should alert Mercosur. With its new 'pro-Chavez' profile, Mercosur could lose the only sure achievement it has had since its origin - the political achievement. The dangerous profile it is acquiring will unleash uncertainty and anguish among its people, which could be dragged to unthinkable conflicts. And this is obviously something absolutely serious." - "Washington offers an FTA to Uruguay" Conservative "La Prensa" reports (07/28) "According to official sources, the USG proposed an FTA to Uruguay, which is similar to the one it has recently signed with Peru. According to the Busqueda weekly, the proposal was made during a digital videoconference held on Wednesday by negotiators from the two countries. "The Commercial Promotion Agreement format allows the entry of most Uruguayan exports to US markets with zero- or lowered tariffs. As a way to make up for prevailing asymmetries between the two countries, the deal negotiated by Peru also bans certain US exports from entering Peru for a considerable length of time. "According to Busqueda, Uruguayan negotiators have recently sent their US counterparts a copy of the FTA signed between Uruguay and Mexico to take it as a model for negotiation." - "The IMF asks Argentina to lower its expenditures" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (07/28) "The IMF will recommend the Argentine Government to implement orthodox measures aimed at taming inflation and to abandon price control accords in order to put the economic recovery recently achieved on a safe track. "According to unidentified sources, the IMF Board will also reiterate other demands to President Nestor Kirchner in order to help him face energy bottle-necks, attract foreign investment and update public rates. "The IMF recommendations will be included in the analysis the IMF makes about the Argentine economy once a year, as well as about all its other member countries, as set forth by Section 4 of its by-laws. "Nevertheless, the review of the 'Argentine case' will be special because it will happen now that the country is no longer an IMF debtor. For its part, the (Argentine) Government has not decided yet whether the IMF will be able to release a complete report of 'Section Four.' "The IMF and the Argentine Government still have some points of disagreement on many central issues - the most important one is focused on the reasons for inflation, and what the most efficient methods to fight it would be." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires MATERA