MEDIA REACTION IRAN LATIN AMERICA CHAVEZ US

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001037

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION IRAN LATIN AMERICA CHAVEZ US
IMMIGRATION POLICY US/URUGUAYAN FTA 05/08/06


1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Weekend stories cover the probable crash between the
US and Iran; Latin America's regional situation after
Bolivia's nationalization of hydrocarbons; Brazilian
fears of a regional 'cold war;' the US "praising
Argentine and Brazilian efforts to contain Bolivia;"
the alleged disappointment of Uruguayan President
Vazquez at the US trade proposal; the alleged military
imbalance in South America; the role of Venezuelan
President Chavez in promoting regional crises in South
America; President Kirchner rallying tens of thousands
of Argentines against a paper mill project in Uruguay;
the government of Sudan and the main Darfur rebel
faction signing a peace agreement to end three years
of fighting; UK PM Tony Blair overhauling his
government after one of the worst local election
defeats of his premiership; and the Argentine Foreign
Ministry's statement that UN head Kofi Annan would not
mediate in a diplomatic spat between Argentina and
Uruguay over the construction of two paper mills.


2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES

- "Iran could leave a critical nuclear treaty"

Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (05/08) "One day
before the permanent members of the UN Security
Council, plus Germany, gathered in order to establish
their strategy vis--vis the Iranian nuclear plan,
Tehran warned that it will withdraw from the Non
Proliferation Treaty if the West continues pressuring
the country to suspend its uranium enrichment program.

"This challenge occurred shortly after US President
George W. Bush said that Iran represents a threat to
Israel and other countries and called to take Iranian
warnings seriously."

- "Iran: burning the bridges"

Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald"
carries an opinion piece by Gwynne Dyer, who writes
(05/08) "The draft resolution on Iran's nuclear
activities that the US, UK and France presented to the
UN Security Council on Wednesday is designed to fail.
By making it a Chapter Seven resolution..., the
authors have guaranteed that it will ultimately face a
veto by Russia and China, neither of which is
convinced that such extreme measures are necessary.

"They are not necessary, but this resolution burns the
bridges on further negotiations..., and there have
been heavy hints in Washington of military action
against Iran. If President Bush follows the same path
that he took into Iraq, a 'failure to act' by the
Security Council is the necessary precursor to an
attack on Iran. Such an attack would make no military
sense, but US foreign policy is still in the hands of
neo-conservatives whose mantra used to be that 'the
boys go to Baghdad, the men go to Tehran.

"... Iran will not back down, and neither will the US.
The crash is probably still many months away, but
these two countries are on a collision course. So it
might be a good time to reconsider the question of
what capabilities Iran is really seeking with its
nuclear programs."

- "A troubled world"

Eduardo van der Kooy, political columnist of leading
"Clarin," writes (05/07) "The region is in a chaotic
situation... Tabare Vazquez's meeting with George W.
Bush seemed the most meaningful gesture of his anger
with Mercosur.

"... Washington has long disregarded the Southern Cone
and is still trapped by the eternal mess in the Middle
East and the war in Iraq. But in the following weeks
US Ambassador to the OAS John Maisto will visit
Argentina and Brazil... He will, among other things,
look into the reasons why the region has begun to look
like a volcano. Washington has an idea about it.

"This idea is called Chavez, who is involved in every
conflict in the region... Kirchner and Lula thought

they discovered Chavez's influence in the Bolivian
president's fast decision to nationalize hydrocarbons.

"... Washington will raise two issues that directly or
indirectly involve Venezuela. Maisto will look into
Argentina and Brazil's stance vis--vis the UN
Security Council's resolution on Iran. Chavez publicly
supported Tehran's nuclear plan. Kirchner and Lula let
Chavez know their disagreement with it. But no one
knows for sure whether they will support the
condemnation promoted by the US. They are suspected
not to do it.

"... The other dilemma is the temporary chair at the
UN Security Council... Washington will surely not want
to see Chavez there with his fiery statements against
the White House. Maisto could convey this fear."

- "An option between democracy and populism"

Joaquin Morales Sola, political columnist of daily-of-
record "La Nacion," opines (04/08) "... The conflict
over energy could spoil the climate of dialogue and
peace in South America, which was perhaps the most
important achievement of regional democracy.

"Brazil and Argentina have enough resources to
guarantee the stability of the region... Their
presidents only need to put Latin American neo-
populism under control.

"... Mercosur is at a crossroads - it needs to be re-
founded or buried. Uruguay is leaving it. Tabare
Vazquez opened all doors to the US, even those of an
FTA during his recent trip to Washington. Paraguay
only expects an invitation to follow suit.

"... Chavez has been and still is a disintegrating
factor in the region. He divided the Andean Community
of Nations, sowed intrigue in Mercosur, of which he is
not a member, and now took Evo as his favorite
student...

"Washington was shocked at Evo's decision to
nationalize. Both Washington and Madrid prefer to hold
on to the hope that Lula and Kirchner will fulfill
their old promises to contain Chavez and now Evo.

"... Never have Washington and Madrid's eyes been so
fixed on the Argentine president. He has his own
domestic front.

"... Kirchner is neither Chavez nor Evo, but the
Argentine Government has already interfered in the
private economy as he had never done during the last
two decades."

- "Brazil fears a regional 'cold war'"

Luis Esnal, on special assignment in Brazil for daily-
of-record "La Nacion," writes(05/08) "Marco Aurelio
Garcia, advisor to President Lula on International
Affairs, said 'We do not want a 'cold war' climate in
Latin America.' During the interview, he warned there
is a clear and concrete difference between the way
Brazil perceives geopolitics and that of Presidents
Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales.

"'Brazil's foreign policy for South America and the
rest of the world is not based on the 'anti' prefix.
'We are not anti-anyone.' We are 'pro,' with respect
to Chavez's anti-US rhetoric.

"Brazil has differentiated its strategy from that of
Chavez and even directly criticizing his style and
measures. The growth of Chavez's influence in South
America... has started to irritate Lula."

- "South America's military balance is increasingly
jeopardized"

Leandro Uria, columnist of daily-of-record "La
Nacion," comments (05/08) "While there have not been
serious military conflicts in the region for the last
two decades, South American countries, like Chile,
Venezuela and Colombia, embarked on a career to
overhaul their military equipment. If this race

continues it could end up in an importance imbalance
in the war capability of the region.

"According to the Latin American Security and Defense
Network, which gathers 250 military experts in the
region, current military expenditures in Chile,
Ecuador and Colombia are over 3% on their respective
GDPs, while the regional average is of 1.4%."

- "The US praises Argentina and Brazil's dealings with
Bolivia"

Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading
"Clarin," writes (05/08) "The US State Department has
valued the rapid reaction of Brazil and Argentina vis-
-vis Bolivian gas nationalization, and also their
efforts to contain President Evo Morales. In fact,
there is certain relief because it was not the US who
had to intervene.

"According to a US diplomat in Washington, 'This is
good news.' The diplomat acknowledged, however, that
there is fear that Venezuela and Cuba have more
influence on Bolivia than Brazil and Argentina. This
is a big concern for the White House. It considers
that what is happening in Bolivia confirms Chavez's
increasing influence on the region."

- "The US offers itself as a partner without any
ideology"

Conservative "La Prensa" reports (05/06) "According to
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the US wants
to be ' a partner for the creation of better
opportunities' in Latin America regardless of the
political affiliation of their governments.


"According to Rice, free trade is the most viable tool
for cooperation. 'The US will not set an ideological
price for its support.' What matters to us is that the
government has been democratically elected, that it
rules in a democratic way and that it is fulfilling
its duties to their people.'"

- "Venezuela promotes regional crises"

Rosendo Fraga, prestigious political columnist, writes
in centrist Perfil newspaper (05/07) "Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez has unleashed the crisis in the
Andean Community of Nations...

"At the same time, Chavez deepened his conflict with
Peru by slashing out at the Peruvian president and
former president Alan Garcia.

"It is clear that Chavez has chosen the moment to
cause the crisis of the regional group in order to
politically use and strengthen his regional
leadership, now that Time magazine has included him as
the only Latin American among the 100 most influential
people in the world."

- "Chavez' influence in Evo Morales' decrees"

Business-financial "Ambito Financiero's" columnist
Carlos Pagni writes (05/08) "The presence of
Venezuelans in La Paz is surrounded by mystery. There
is a blooming political order in Latin America based
on two decisive factors -Hugo Chavez' regional
activism, fueled by his attractive petrodollars, and
the incipient energy crisis in Brazil and Argentina.

"... When Morales' progress was perceived as
inevitable, the US State Department attempted to have
the Kirchner administration lead a friendly
protectorate on La Paz, under the form of a technical
cooperation agreement... Condoleezza Rice suggested
this to Rafael Bielsa. The US Embassy in Buenos Aires
even drafted a minimal energy program that could be
the chore of said cooperation. All this in order to
prevent YPFB from having Venezuelan engineers..., but
history had some other ideas."

- "Free trade - Uruguay is disappointed by US
proposal"

Carlos Burgueo, columnist of business-financial
"Ambito Financiero," writes (05/08) "Uruguay is
reported to be disappointed by the US proposal of an
FTA received by Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez
during his meeting with US President George W. Bush.

"This is the information the Argentine Government has
on the meeting. However, when he was back from the US,
the Uruguayan president said that he is willing to
sign an FTA with the US while he pointed out that his
country feels disregarded by Mercosur."


3. EDITORIALS

- "Regional ties ask for a more rational attitude"

An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (05/07) "The
Puerto Iguazu presidential summit has left some
lessons regarding regional ties and the establishment
of strategic goals of mutual interest.

"A good example of a cautious handling of a conflict
is that of Bolivian gas and oil nationalization. In
spite of the malaise it caused, the Brazilian
government decided to call for dialogue among
interested parties to prevent an escalation of the
conflict... Argentina got involved in this initiative
and mediated between Bolivia and Brazil.

"On the contrary, vis--vis the pulp mills problem,
the Argentine Government adopted a confrontational
style that cut down the possibilities of a
negotiation.

"... Furthermore, during his visit to Washington,
President Tabare Vazquez told President Bush about the
problem and therefore introduced the US into a
bilateral or regional conflict with which the US has
nothing to do.

"The energy cost and the innumerable topics on the
regional agenda require Latin American governments to
implement realistic policies oriented to the best use
of their resources without descending into aggressive
stances among themselves, toward investors or third
countries."

- "Latin presence in the US"

An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (05/08) "The US
Latin community has just staged the greatest protest
demonstrations since the demonstrations for civil
rights. More than two million people staged
demonstrations in favor of the immigrants' rights.


"... The legislation that is being promoted by
conservative sectors implies a toughened policy that
could deepen existing inequality. The Hispanics' claim
is as legitimate as the aspiration of obtaining
acknowledgement of their status as citizens."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

GUTIERREZ