HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: PRELIMINARY SECOND ROUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000842 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2011 TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI PINR HU SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: PRELIMINARY SECOND ROUND RESULTS SHOW RULING COALITION RETURNED TO POWER (C-RE6-00145) REF: STATE 22644 Classified By: Pol/C Bob Patterson. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The April 23 final round of the parliamentary elections returned the current MSZP-SZDSZ governing coalition to power with an enhanced majority. The Central Election Commission is expected to certify final returns the week of May 1, once absentee ballots are tabulated, then President Solyom after consultation with the four parliamentary parties should invite current Prime Minister Gyurcsany to form a government. Gyurcsany signaled to Ambassador at a brief post-election meeting the evening of April 23 that we will immediately tackle Hungary's yawning budget deficit and the associated public sector reform. The election result spells the second consecutive election defeat for opposition FIDESZ, but Party President Viktor Orban, shows no signs of relinquishing his grasp on power. -------------- The (Almost) Final Tally -------------- ¶2. (U) With 98.26 percent of the vote counted, it appears that the MSZP-SZDSZ coalition can expect 210 out of Parliament's 386 seats, or a 16-seat majority. According to these nearly-final results, the National Election Commission currently estimates that the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) will have 186 seats, the FIDESZ and their partner Christian Democratic People's Party (FIDESZ-KDNP) 164, the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) 18, the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) 11 and the "For Somogy" Union 1 vote. Joint MSZP-SZDSZ candidates won 6 seats. That leaves a difference of 46 seats between the coalition parties and FIDESZ. Eleven individual-constituency races remain too close to call and results will be certified only on or after April 29, when the tabulation of absentee ballots will be complete. -------------- Voter Turnout -------------- ¶3. (U) While overall turnout was robust in Hungary's 2006 elections, the mood was not revolutionary. Turnout for the April 23 second round was 64.34 percent, with a high of 70.75 in Budapest and a low of 59.42 percent in Jasz-Nagykun-Szolnok County. The average was some 10 points lower than in 2002's second round, when the political atmosphere was highly charged. -------------- Prime Minister-Elect's Speech -------------- ¶4. (U) In his victory speech yesterday evening, Prime Minister-elect Ferenc Gyurcsany emphasized national unity and the personal responsibility he feels to all Hungarians, regardless of whom they voted for. (He said he would continue to serve in the name of 10 million Hungarians, and in the interest of 15 million Hungarians.) Gyurcsany suggested that what his party had won was not power, but &tasks and responsibility.8 He expressed his faith in the Hungarian people, who knowthat &it is not enough to ask what I can get fro the nation, but also to ask what I can give to t,8 and painted a vision of the country where &ech can reach his goals as according to his talents. -------------- Orban Concedes -------------- ¶5. (U) Speaking at a pres conference just a few minutes after conceding dfeat to Gyurcsany, FIDESZ President Viktor Orbansaid the greatest lesson for his party is that a conservative victory is impossible without unity. &Our opponents,8 Orban said, &learned the importance of unifying8 and thus ensured their victory. In the role of a &constructive opposition,8 Orban pledged that FIDESZ would support institutions which the Hungarian democracy &may still lack.8 He also noted that FIDESZ will protect the interests of everyone who voted for the party and that the party,s supporters need shed no tears for FIDESZ; although the shedding of a few tears may be justified for the nation. -------------- BUDAPEST 00000842 002 OF 002 Other Party Presidents Speak -------------- ¶6. (U) Speaking to elated supporters, SZDSZ leader Gabor Kuncze responded to Orban,s speech by reminding everyone that &there is no need to protect anyone, as no one is being threatened.8 Kuncze noted that such rhetoric serves only to divide the country, and that the election results show that the majority rejected &what FIDESZ chose to convey between the two election rounds.8 MDF party president Ibolya David, in her speech, congratulated the winners, and thanked members of her party for not caving in under the pressure of the last two weeks. Voicing sharp criticism of FIDESZ, David said the senior opposition party did not lose the elections on April 23, but by its &politicking8 over the course of the last several years. She called FIDESZ,s attempt to unite the right &under one color8 a serious wrong. David said MDF,s performance in the elections established that the party,s call for normalcy and decency in politics does resonate with voters and added that the right faces a major transformation in Hungary, in which MDF intends to play an important role. -------------- Gyurcsany Outlines His Plans To Ambassador -------------- ¶7. (C) The Ambassador and DCM congratulated all four of the parliamentary parties' leading candidates evening April 23 (election eve) immediately after FIDESZ President Orban had conceded defeat to Prime Minister-elect Gyurcsany. Orban thanked the Ambassador for his effort to seek him out at FIDESZ headquarters. Both SZDSZ President Gabor Kuncze and MDF President Ibolya David were grateful for the visit as well. In a brief, sit-down meeting, Gyurcsany, who was accompanied by his wife, Klara Dobrev, regretted the previous four "wasted years," and promised that his party with its enhanced mandate would immediately tackle the tough issues on Hungary's agenda, among them public sector reform and the concomitant budged deficit. In fact, Gyurcsany said, he would outline his government-elect's program at a press conference to be held afternoon, April 24 (septel) Gyurcsany predicted his new government would be ready for action by mid-June. He stressed the importance of both solid relations within the EU and good transatlantic issues, and indicated he would continue his efforts to burnish relations with Russia. -------------- -------------- Next Steps in Forming a Government -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) Final tallies, including absentee ballots, should be recorded by the Central Election Commission (CEC) by April ¶29. Some of the remaining eleven undecided races are very close, however, and requests to the CEC for a re-count in a few of those contests cannot be excluded, which could delay the announcement of final election results by an additional several days. Once final results are certified, President Solyom will consult with the leaders of all parliamentary parties before inviting Prime Minister-elect Gyurcsany to form a government. Within thirty days of receiving that invitation, Gyurcsany must convene Parliament. As noted above, Gyurcsany expects to announce his new government by mid-June. Should he wish to reduce the number of ministries as part of his effort to streamline government, legislative action would be necessary when the Parliament is convened in June. ¶9. (U) Visit Embassy Budapest's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm WALKER