HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: BALATON RESORT TOWNS POISED

UNCLAS BUDAPEST 000710 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SOCI HU SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: BALATON RESORT TOWNS POISED TO VOTE FIDESZ AGAIN (C-RE6-00145) REF: STATE 22644 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The FIDESZ campaign in the western resort towns of Keszthely and Heviz is tagging the MSZP for high unemployment and a sagging economy and hoping to use FIDESZ's improved organizational skills to get unhappy voters to the polls on April 9. A FIDESZ politician already in Parliament pegs his hopes for the region on infrastructure improvements, and is campaigning hard on promises that FIDESZ will bring new opportunities to the region by building roads and a new airport. -------------- BACKGROUND -------------- ¶2. (U) The resort towns of Keszthely and Heviz are located at the southwesternmost end of Lake Balaton. The areas were considered "national treasures" during the communist era, attracting visitors from across the Soviet bloc -- Keszthely for its panoramic view of lake Balaton, and Heviz for its "healing" thermal waters. Open borders spelled decline for the region in the 1990s. Both towns were negatively impacted by the growth in tourism to Croatian seaside resorts. Unemployment is currently at an alltime high, averaging 10.5 percent in both cites. A drive around town showed numerous businesses and houses for sale, including a large hotel on the Balaton shore that was once considered a "summertime must" for boaters on Europe's largest lake. ¶3. (SBU) According to 2002 figures, Zala County had 239,573 registered voters. Voter turnout for the 2002 elections at about 70 percent, matched the national average. The county has five individual constituencies and sends an additional five representatives from the party lists. In 2002, FIDESZ won a decisive victory in Zala; receiving fifty percent of the vote to the MSZP's 36 percent. FIDESZ accordingly sent three party-list MPs to Parliament and the MSZP two. -------------- FIDESZ Organizer Predicts "Smashing Victory" -------------- ¶4. (SBU) A confident Keszthely FIDESZ campaign organizer Istvan Bolcskei predicted April 4 that FIDESZ will win four of five constituencies in Zala county "in the first round." Bolcskei thought FIDESZ would maintain if not exceed, its "fifteen percent" 2002 margin of victory. FIDESZ's organized, methodical campaign strategy has "expanded" the identifiable voter base, said Bolcskei. The party has developed voter profiles, contact information and identified key regional volunteers over the past four years, and began an extensive "door-to-door" push on April 3. The campaign is directed from Budapest, and requires a constant flow of information from local volunteers and organizers, up through the regional directors and ultimately back to FIDESZ headquarters. Bolcskei maintained that FIDESZ had far less money that the MSZP, and had economized during the earlier stages of the campaign in order to saved its "blockbuster ads" for the final ten days. (Note: Billboards and streetlamps in Keszthely were an uninterrupted string of FIDESZ posters.) -------------- -------------- MP Focuses on Infrastructure In His Bid For A Repeat Win -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) FIDESZ parliamentarian Jeno Manninger predicted April 4 that he would win by twenty percent as he had in ¶2002. (In 2002, Manninger won 60 percent of the vote to the MSZP's Miklos Veer's 40 percent.) Crowds at his local rallies, though small, have more than doubled from his last election campaign, he said, and the recent FIDESZ regional rally had filled the Keszthely convention center. Manninger also alleged that an unexpectedly high number of Zala county voters chartered buses to attend the April 1 FIDESZ rally in Budapest. Flagging tourism and "unemployment that has doubled under Gyurcsany" has made the MSZP an even easier target, especially among a constituent base with pre-existing FIDESZ sympathies. ¶6. (SBU) Infrastructure development is the "key to my constituency's future" said Manninger. A civil engineer by training, Manninger said Keszthely needs better roads and a better airport to attract the German and Austrian tourists the area's service economy needs to survive. A long-abandoned Soviet airbase near Heviz, has recently been reopened to accommodate commuter and commercial aircraft. This is "a positive step" said Manninger, noting that budget carrier Ryan Air has signed contracts to begin regular service from Dublin and London to "Balaton International" airport. On "the down side" according to Menninger, the airport's instrumentation is "antiquated at best" and the facility needs major upgrades (and government support) to be a real success. ¶7. (U) North-south overland commerce passes through western Hungary in order to "avoid Austrian tolls," said Manninger, "putting tremendous strain" on the roads and spoiling the region's resort town atmosphere. Manninger is campaigning hard for road improvements that he says will help commercial traffic "bypass" city centers. In "every speech I remind people that FIDESZ" started the M-5 motorway that MSZP PM Gyurcsany had recently opened to great fanfare. Noting the EU's reluctance to fund road projects Manninger said he is certain that FIDESZ President Orban can make a persuasive argument for funding roads that would increase commerce between the Balkans and central Europe. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Both Keszthely and Heviz are overly dependent on tourist income, and are now feeling the pinch as more tourists, Hungarian and foreign, travel to more attractive and less expensive destinations in Croatia. Their stagnant economies are no doubt fertile ground for FIDESZ, and the party appears poised to replicate its 2002 good showing here in 2006. ¶9. (U) Visit Embassy Budapest's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm WALKER