HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SNAPSHOT OF THREE INDIVIDUAL

UNCLAS BUDAPEST 000701 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SOCI HU SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: SNAPSHOT OF THREE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE RACES (C-RE6-00145) REF: STATE 22644 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) On April 9 and 23, 176 of the 386 members of Parliament will be elected in individual mandate races. This cable presents snapshots of three of those contests by way of illustrating the varying considerations that complicate efforts by observers to forecast the outcomes of any of many of the individual candidate races. -------------- Mayor Leaves FIDESZ to Run Under MSZP-SZDSZ Banner -------------- ¶2. (U) The MSZP mayor of the eastern town of Kecskemet Gabor Szecsi has a chance to make history in a traditionally conservative district and win an individual seat under the MSZP-SZDSZ banner. A popular second-term mayor of Hungary,s &apricot country,8 Szecsi quit opposition party FIDESZ in 2004 following disputes with the party leadership, particularly with Party Chairman Viktor Orban, over policy issues. Szecsi has been smart enough to campaign on traditionally conservative issues such as the relationship with churches, the commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the 1956 revolution, and support for ethnic Hungarians abroad. ¶3. (U) A Median poll in mid-March revealed that both Szecsi and his FIDESZ rival, incumbent MP Zsolt Horvath, have 40 percent support in Kecskemet while their respective parties are expected to receive 50 percent of the vote. Seventeen percent of the voters remain undecided. Gabor Szecsi is well-known: polls show that 95 percent of the town,s voters know who he is as opposed to 76 percent for Horvath. According to the survey, eleven percent of FIDESZ voters would support Szecsi in his individual race because &he did a lot for the city and has good connections.8 In addition to his high approval rating as mayor there could be another factor: it may be possible that not everyone has realized that Szecsi has left FIDESZ. (That may also explain the unusually small MSZP-SZDSZ logo on his posters.) -------------- Budapest,s 11th District: Opposition Friction May Play Into MSZP Hands -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The conservative, religious, middle-class dominates Budapest's eleventh district, where MDF MP Miklos Csapody has won every election since 1990. Csapody, however, now faces a new challenge in the person of FIDESZ-nominated Christian Democrat Andras Deak. FIDESZ-MDF relations, bad enough at the national level, have marred this local race as well, with the candidates having several times accused each other of violating the electoral law. MSZP candidate, Political State Secretary in the Prime Minister,s Office Vilmos Szabo, hopes that the FIDESZ-MDF rivalry will play into his hands. Szabo, who is Prime Minister Gyurcsany,s top foreign political advisor, told Embassy last month he believes his chances to win have been increased by the heated Csapody-Deak contest. Szabo noted that Csapody has promised he would not withdraw after the first round no matter the outcome. &This could play into my hands; however, I cannot take his promise for granted because we are human beings and FIDESZ may offer a good job to Csapody8 to tempt him out of the race. If Csapody withdraws, polls suggest that Deak will likely defeat Szabo (52-48). (That would not be the end of the road for Szabo, who is assured a seat as a member of the MSZP,s Budapest party list.) -------------- Budapest,s 5th District: Coalition Bargain Needed to Beat FIDESZ -------------- ¶5. (U) Budapest,s center city fifth district ( where the Embassy is located),is the battleground for MSZP Mayor Pal Steiner, SZDSZ executive Ivan Peto, and FIDESZ,s campaign chief Antal Rogan. With pensioners comprising almost half of the voters, this district has been an MSZP-SZDSZ stronghold, and has regularly seen high voter turnout (79 percent in 2002). SZDSZ heavyweight Ivan Peto is the District,s incumbent. (Steiner withdrew in favor of Peto four years ago.) Things have changed here since. Steiner is now not only a successful mayor but he has moved quickly up his party,s ladder and is a member of the MSZP Presidium. Steiner and Peto,s rival is FIDESZ,s Antal Rogan, whom many peg as the most talented second generation FIDESZ cadre. (Rogan is rumored in some circles to be Orban,s successor should FIDESZ lose this election.) ¶6. (SBU) Peto told Embassy the week of March 27 that it has not been determined who will withdraw in the second round to ensure a coalition victory in the district. Both politicians will enter Parliament as members of their respective party lists regardless. According to Peto, the key factor in the decision to withdraw will be the SZDSZ,s first round performance. ¶7. (SBU) An early-March Median poll showed that 47 percent of decided voters in the district would vote for the MSZP as opposed to 34 percent for FIDESZ, while the SZDSZ could expect to receive 13 percent of the vote. MEDIAN reported that Peto could expect 18 percent because ten percent of MSZP voters polled said they would support him. (In 2002, Peto received nine percent more votes than his party in the fifth district.) -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) It is expected by many observers here that in a great number of individual districts either the MSZP or FIDESZ will register a first round victory, making a second round unnecessary in as many as half of the constituencies. (Party list voting occurs only in the first round. Second round voting is held to determine the winner of the remaining, individual races.) The above examples illustrate some additional factors that complicate the task of forecasting winners in individual mandate races. ¶9. (U) Visit Embassy Budapest's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index/cfm. WALKER