HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BUDAPEST 000656 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST: HEVES COUNTY (C-RE6-00145) REF: A. STATE 22644 ¶B. BUDAPEST 00553 ¶C. BUDAPEST 00644 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) Heves County is an MSZP stronghold. During a March 23-24 election reporting trip through the region, most interlocutors predicted that MSZP would win all six of the individual mandates in the county. Although the region is a traditional reservoir of strong Catholic sentiment, good relations prevail between it and the MSZP dominated local government. In addition, disarray in the FIDESZ ranks and a booming economy associated with MSZP leadership point to the likelihood of MSZP keeping all its parliamentary seats in the region. As in other areas of the northeast, most locals claim the Roma are easy targets for voter fraud and are not a real political force. -------------- Background -------------- ¶2. (U) Located to the northeast of Budapest, Heves County has roughly 328,000 inhabitants and 260,000 registered voters. Industry and mine closures following the 1989 regime have adversely affected the northern and southern parts of the county and these areas have not done well in attracting new investment. The southern part of the county also has a high proportion of Roma, most of whom live in small, underdeveloped communities. The three large population centers of Eger, Hatvan and Gyongyos have fared much better, particularly by attracting foreign companies to new industrial parks. ¶3. (U) The 2002 parliamentary elections confirmed Heves as the most Socialist county in all of Hungary. All six individual constituencies were won by MSZP candidates and Socialists took 47 percent of regional list votes compared to FIDESZ's 36 percent. The historical city of Eger is the county seat. In addition to recent foreign investment, the city also owes its prosperity and low unemployment to its important tourist industry. In 2002 the single riding encompassing Eger was won by MSZP mayor Dr. Imre Nagy in a close race that went to the second round. Dr. Nagy's opponent in 2006 is FIDESZ national heavyweight Ervin Demeter, a former cabinet minister and a current MP. -------------- FIDESZ at Each Others' Throats -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Journalist Gabor Kuhne of the Heves Megyei Hirlap (a regional paper),told poloffs on March 24 that it would take a "miracle" for FIDESZ to win the individual mandate race in Eger because the local FIDESZ members are "at each other's throats." Kuhne also gave similar odds for all FIDESZ candidates throughout Heves County. According to Kuhne, a conservative group called the "Local Patriots" is traditionally at odds with FIDESZ on local issues. Composed of members of the town's leading families, the "Local Patriots" do not consider themselves a political party, but its members have traditionally dominated the city government (though it now has few representatives on the city council). Kuhne also stated that FIDESZ fortunes are further complicated by internal party personality clashes and a local leadership vacuum. FIDESZ candidate Demeter has tenuous ties to Eger and Kuhne speculated that Demeter was brought in as a FIDESZ attempt to impose its will on the local party. ¶5. (SBU) MSZP's strength in the city stems from three sources, observed Kuhne. About one third of the city's population lives in a communist era "planned community" (whose original residents were transplanted to Eger during the previous regime) and these inhabitants are staunchly MSZP. Eger's local college, Eszterhazy Karoly College, has a socialist bent that influences the political thinking of the many local leaders who attended classes there, and the city's manifest prosperity is associated with MSZP's leadership. Kuhne said that relations between the church and the city government are good and that he really could not discern the local church's position toward the various parties. (Comment: Kuhne's inability to determine the local church stance is in itself a significant indication of the good relations between the church and the city government.) Kuhne described the Roma as manipulated by various politicians and BUDAPEST 00000656 002 OF 003 lacking political influence. Kuhne dismissed the Roma Unity Party (which managed to get enough nominations for candidates to run in two of Heves's districts) as a factor, stating that nominations are easy to get. -------------- Politicians Love the Roma -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Laszlo Molnar, an economics teacher at Eszterhazy Karoly College, and an entrepreneur who runs a business providing food and cleaning services to local government institutions, echoed Kuhne's sentiments concerning Roma. Molnar told poloffs on March 24 that "Politicians love the Roma because they can be bought." Molnar said that eight of his company's twenty-six employees were Roma. He claimed that he actively recruits Roma out of a sense of social responsibility and even then he found it hard to find any who were "willing to work." Molnar said that many of his workers tell him firsthand stories of politicians bribing Roma and using them to commit vote-fraud. ¶7. (SBU) Molnar predicted an MSZP win in Eger saying that FIDESZ had made two major mistakes in the campaign. The first was that Demeter is unknown in the area and has few ties to Eger, and the second is that Demeter entered the race too late to win. Per Molnar the most important regional issue is unemployment and he estimated the unemployment rate to be 3-4 percent in Eger and 9-10 percent in the countryside. Molnar said the city is doing well and benefiting from its huge tourist influx and other prospering industries. Molnar observed that Eger is a mostly Catholic city and even though he is Catholic he considers himself a "liberal Christian." He announced that he was "fed up" with both MSZP and FIDESZ and would vote for SZDSZ or MDF. -------------- Roma Businessman Pro-FIDESZ -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Local Roma Sandor Danyi told Poloffs that as a businessman he supports FIDESZ because it is pro-small business. Danyi, who is the managing director of a large construction company said that during the past four years his company had built significantly fewer buildings, and he attributed this to MSZP's perceived poor family aid policy which discourages new housing development. Danyi also mentioned that in his opinion 95 percent of Roma support "whoever gives them something." Still he said, FIDESZ would have better economic and social aid plans for Roma because MSZP plans require too much of a "down payment" from Roma. (Comment: Poloffs interpreted this to mean that Danyi thinks MSZP puts too many requirements on aid to Roma.) Danyi said that he does not expect the Roma Unity Party to do anything and that the Roma will not be a force unless various national Roma leaders put aside their personal agendas and unite. ¶9. (SBU) Danyi predicted that MSZP would likely win in Eger and said that running Demeter as a candidate was a "bad decision" by FIDESZ. He added that MSZP would also win at least five and maybe all six of the seats in Heves. Danyi attributed MSZP's strength to the fact that the region was doing extremely well economically and that tourism and industry were booming. (Note: In December 2005 the mayor of Hatvan, one of the main population centers in Heves County, told poloffs that the unemployment rate overall was 3.5 percent and only 7-8 percent for the city's Roma. The remarkably low Roma unemployment rate is a sure indicator of the area's thriving economy.) Danyi did point out that while Eger was doing well, Roma in the southern part of the county were much worse off. -------------- "Peaceful Co-existence" -------------- ¶10. (SBU) American Studies Professor Lehel Vadon explained to Poloffs that prior to the communist era, Eger was a very religious and conservative city. To counter this "bourgeois" element, the government transplanted thousands of more politically reliable citizens to Eger in the housing area described in paragraph 5. In recent years, those who live in that part of Eger have reasserted their socialist leanings and this has contributed to MSZP's dominance. Dr. Vadon said that voter apathy was also an issue. The professor who teaches at Eszterhazy Karoly College, described the relationship between the local MSZP government and the church as one of "peaceful co-existence." As an example he told how a local MSZP councilman had arranged for funds to restore a BUDAPEST 00000656 003 OF 003 local church's altar. (Comment: The peaceful relations between the Church and the city government certainly cannot hurt MSZP as it may take the edge off anti-clerical charges sometimes leveled against it elsewhere.) REEKER