HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BUDAPEST 000644 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST: SZABOLCS-SZATMAR-BEREG COUNTY (C-RE6-00145) REF: A. STATE 22644 ¶B. BUDAPEST 00553 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) MSZP is likely to gain seats from FIDESZ in Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg County. During a March 23-24 reporting trip to the area, most interlocutors predicted to poloffs that in addition to holding on to its two districts in the county seat of Nyiregyhaza, MSZP could win up to half the remaining eight districts in the county. The region is poor, very religious in the countryside and its economy is based on agriculture. The Roman Catholic Church is generally perceived as being influential in politics, and the county's high Roma population is not viewed as a factor in the elections. Though much of the population votes on national issues, local issues such as unemployment and infrastructure development will influence the outcome as well. -------------- Background -------------- ¶2. (U) Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg County is Hungary's easternmost county, bordering Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine. Like much of eastern Hungary, Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg is relatively poor and has a higher rate of unemployment compared to the national average. Much of the county is employed in the agricultural and food processing industries, though these have suffered significantly since the important Russian market all but dried up in the years following the 1989 political transition. The county has one of the highest proportions of Roma (approximately 10 percent). ¶3. (U) In the 2002 parliamentary elections the county registered just over 440,000 voters. In the vote for the county list, support for FIDESZ topped that of MSZP by a mere 2.4 percent, indicating that the region is evenly split in its support for the two main parties. None of the smaller parties represented a serious force in 2002. Despite the relatively even split in support, the situation is different geographically. In 2002 eight of the ten individual mandates went to FIDESZ and only two to MSZP. The two MSZP mandates were from Nyiregyhaza, the county seat and its largest and most prosperous city. ¶4. (U) Nyiregyhaza's 120,000 population is divided into two voting districts. In 2002, the two MSZP candidates (both women) won the first and second districts with relative ease. Laszlone Csabai, the city's popular mayor, took the District 2 in the first round with 58 percent of the vote. The race in District 1 went to the second round where Dr. Maria Vojnik eventually won 58 percent of the votes, demonstrating that Nyiregyhaza is a Socialist bastion within the FIDESZ countryside. Neither of the 2002 FIDESZ candidates are running again and despite what would be an assured victory, neither is Mrs. Csabai. She is stepping down from national politics and Deputy Mayor Istvan Tukacs will run for MSZP in District 2. Current Defense Minister Ferenc Juhasz and Finance Minister Janos Veres are also running close races against their FIDESZ opponents in the county. -------------- Political Mood Reserved, More Tolerant -------------- ¶5. (SBU) During a meeting with journalists Zoltan Zajacz and Laszlo Man of the regional paper Kelet Magyarorszag (East Hungary),both expressed the opinion that the vicious nature of national politics was much less pronounced in the region. Much of this appears due to the personalities of the candidates and the generally more relaxed nature of the local population. According to Zajacz, popular MSZP incumbent and Nyiregyhaza mayor Laszlone Csabai is stepping down to focus on being mayor and to spend more time with her family, despite virtual assurance of winning re-election. In addition, both journalists agreed that MSZP has a lock on Nyiregyhaza's two seats and so FIDESZ is not campaigning heavily in the city, choosing instead to focus its efforts on the countryside, where they will have more impact. ¶6. (SBU) Zajacz also discussed other interesting races in the county. In District 3, MSZP Defense Minister Ferenc Juhasz is running against FIDESZ candidate Dr. Laszlo Karako in a close fought race (Note: In 2002, Juhasz lost Karako in the second round by less than 1 percent). In District 6, Finance Minister Janos Veres is also in a close race against BUDAPEST 00000644 002 OF 003 FIDESZ's Miklos Simon, and many locals expect that MSZP will prevail. (Note: In the first round of the 2002 elections, Veres and Simon were neck and neck. Veres lost to Simon by 20 percent in the second round which is likely due to MDF and other small parties throwing their weight to Simon.) Even if their national prominence is not enough to win the individual districts, the cabinet ministers have nothing to worry about; Juhasz is 9th on MSZP's national list and Veres is 1st on MSZP's county list and 11th on its national list, guaranteeing them seats in parliament. Both Zajacz and Man also predicted that MSZP would win both seats in Nyiregyhaza and could conceivably gain up to four new seats in the countryside, although most of the races are too close to call. ¶7. (SBU) Important issues differentiate Nyiregyhaza and the rest of the county said Zajacz. Nyiregyhaza is thriving as a result of commercial development and the arrival of multinational companies such as Tesco. Because of this, unemployment is at three percent compared to the approximately 15 percent in the countryside and most people attribute this to Csabai's leadership. The main concern in town is reducing traffic. (Currently there is no ring road around the city and all trucking traffic passes through the town center, as poloffs found out firsthand.) In the environs, the major issue is unemployment and the lack of any regional infrastructure. FIDESZ is campaigning on the lack of infrastructure development during the last four years, but they are hampered by the fact that an extension of the main M-3 highway to Nyiregyhaza is under development and should be completed by Fall. Both journalists stated that since so much of the county's economy is based on agriculture (grain, fruit and tobacco) many voters want to rebuild the local economy by developing the border region. Man said that discussions about a proposed European highway to Moscow and extending the Trans-Siberian Railroad to the region would make Nyiregyhaza an important transport hub again and revitalize the once important and lucrative agriculture trade with Russia. -------------- Russia The Savior -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Laszlo Peko, investor and head of the County Chamber of Commerce and Industry also emphasized the potential benefits of closer ties to Russia. He told poloffs on March 23 that the best way to help the depressed agricultural economy and high unemployment was to develop border crossings with Ukraine and Romania and rebuild trade with Russia. He stated that since Hungary's EU accession, Hungarian businesses are losing out to multi-national corporations and so the protectionist rhetoric of FIDESZ appeals to many local businessman. On the other hand said Peko, Hungary was definitely better off as wages have increased and inflation is low. Peko brought up Putin's recent visit to Hungary and the warming of relations and said that such actions increased the hope of restoring regional trade with Russia. Peko said that local businessman realize Orban's xenophobic posturing and history of cold relations with Russia would likely mean that the new relations would not continue if FIDESZ came to power. As an employer, Peko also expressed doubt about FIDESZ's promises to lower social security contributions as a way to create jobs, saying that the budget shortfall would have to made up somehow, probably through other taxes. He also stated that the bloated public administration budget would have to be cut but that this would devastate many of the local villages where the only employment was often through some form of the local government. Peko estimated that MSZP would win District 2 and probably District 1 along with half the remaining individual seats. ¶9. (SBU) Peko said that religious sentiment particularly Catholicism, is very strong in the countryside and added that it was "obvious" the Roman Catholic Church supports FIDESZ. The Roma were not a factor according to Peko, as they are easily manipulated, giving their votes for a "few sausages." He mentioned that many politicians use Roma in the common practice of "chain" voting. (Note: Chain voting is a process in which a non-Roma "handler" goes in to vote and brings out the blank ballot. He then fills it out and gives it to a Roma who gets a blank ballot but drops the filled out ballot in the box. When that Roma comes out he gives the blank ballot to the handler in exchange for a bribe and then the handler fills out the blank ballot and gives it to the next Roma voter and so on. As other inhabitants of eastern Hungary have noted (see ref b) Peko said that the number of all-Roma or majority-Roma villages were increasing. He claimed that BUDAPEST 00000644 003 OF 003 this was due to the higher Roma birthrate and the fact that while the high unemployment rate is driving many villagers to the city, the Roma cannot afford to leave. -------------- Two Views on Unemployment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Poloffs also met with Attila Kantar, principal of a public school in one of Nyiregyhaza's communist-era "planned" communities. Kantar said that while national issues were important to local voters, unemployment was the key local issue. Kantar noted a recent trend of increased enrollment at the school and attributed this to villagers who were moving to the city to take advantage of its low unemployment rate. For his students and their families, the deciding factor in their choice of career tracks was job security. Kantar said that MSZP would win at least one seat in Nyiregyhaza and maybe two along with four seats outside the city. Kantar said he was of the perception that religious involvement in politics was a growing trend. His views of Roma as a political force were that of other interlocutors, but he did make a distinction between "city" Roma and "country" Roma, saying that those in the city were less likely to be manipulated. ¶11. (SBU) Dr. Joszef Varadi, a retired Catholic priest took the FIDESZ line. He told Poloffs that the unemployment situation in the countryside would actually help MSZP because the unemployed "sit around all day watching TV" and so are easily manipulated. Varadi attributed the increasing power of MSZP in the region to the local paper being owned by a "left-wing German news consortium." Varadi decried the lack of values among MSZP and SZDSZ and said they did not care about Hungary's decreasing population, which was a result of abortion and "loose" interpretations of marriage. The priest cited Orban's protectionist ideas as a good thing, saying that multinational corporations are taking jobs away. Varadi said that it did not matter if the Church tried to get involved in politics, because even if the priest told the congregation what to do they would be too "insensitive to the issues to do anything." Varadi thought that SZDSZ's handling of education and the attempts to force school integration of Roma had damaged the educational system and done nothing for the Roma. (Comment: Despite the strong opinions expressed, Varadi presented them calmly and matter of factly, often with humor.) Despite being so obviously a FIDESZ supporter, Varadi stopped short of making any predictions for the county, saying that all the races were unpredictable and too close to call. ¶12. (U) Visit U.S. Embassy Budapest's Classified website at: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm. REEKER