HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BUDAPEST 000644

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM SOCI HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARY'S ELECTIONS: THE VIEW FROM THE NORTHEAST:
SZABOLCS-SZATMAR-BEREG COUNTY (C-RE6-00145)

REF: A. STATE 22644

B. BUDAPEST 00553

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (U) MSZP is likely to gain seats from FIDESZ in
Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg County. During a March 23-24
reporting trip to the area, most interlocutors predicted to
poloffs that in addition to holding on to its two districts
in the county seat of Nyiregyhaza, MSZP could win up to half
the remaining eight districts in the county. The region is
poor, very religious in the countryside and its economy is
based on agriculture. The Roman Catholic Church is generally
perceived as being influential in politics, and the county's
high Roma population is not viewed as a factor in the
elections. Though much of the population votes on national
issues, local issues such as unemployment and infrastructure
development will influence the outcome as well.

--------------
Background
--------------


2. (U) Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg County is Hungary's
easternmost county, bordering Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine.
Like much of eastern Hungary, Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg is
relatively poor and has a higher rate of unemployment
compared to the national average. Much of the county is
employed in the agricultural and food processing industries,
though these have suffered significantly since the important
Russian market all but dried up in the years following the
1989 political transition. The county has one of the highest
proportions of Roma (approximately 10 percent).


3. (U) In the 2002 parliamentary elections the county
registered just over 440,000 voters. In the vote for the
county list, support for FIDESZ topped that of MSZP by a mere
2.4 percent, indicating that the region is evenly split in
its support for the two main parties. None of the smaller
parties represented a serious force in 2002. Despite the
relatively even split in support, the situation is different
geographically. In 2002 eight of the ten individual mandates
went to FIDESZ and only two to MSZP. The two MSZP mandates
were from Nyiregyhaza, the county seat and its largest and
most prosperous city.


4. (U) Nyiregyhaza's 120,000 population is divided into two
voting districts. In 2002, the two MSZP candidates (both
women) won the first and second districts with relative ease.
Laszlone Csabai, the city's popular mayor, took the District
2 in the first round with 58 percent of the vote. The race
in District 1 went to the second round where Dr. Maria Vojnik
eventually won 58 percent of the votes, demonstrating that
Nyiregyhaza is a Socialist bastion within the FIDESZ
countryside. Neither of the 2002 FIDESZ candidates are
running again and despite what would be an assured victory,
neither is Mrs. Csabai. She is stepping down from national
politics and Deputy Mayor Istvan Tukacs will run for MSZP in
District 2. Current Defense Minister Ferenc Juhasz and
Finance Minister Janos Veres are also running close races
against their FIDESZ opponents in the county.

--------------
Political Mood Reserved, More Tolerant
--------------


5. (SBU) During a meeting with journalists Zoltan Zajacz and
Laszlo Man of the regional paper Kelet Magyarorszag (East
Hungary),both expressed the opinion that the vicious nature
of national politics was much less pronounced in the region.
Much of this appears due to the personalities of the
candidates and the generally more relaxed nature of the local
population. According to Zajacz, popular MSZP incumbent and
Nyiregyhaza mayor Laszlone Csabai is stepping down to focus
on being mayor and to spend more time with her family,
despite virtual assurance of winning re-election. In
addition, both journalists agreed that MSZP has a lock on
Nyiregyhaza's two seats and so FIDESZ is not campaigning
heavily in the city, choosing instead to focus its efforts on
the countryside, where they will have more impact.


6. (SBU) Zajacz also discussed other interesting races in
the county. In District 3, MSZP Defense Minister Ferenc
Juhasz is running against FIDESZ candidate Dr. Laszlo Karako
in a close fought race (Note: In 2002, Juhasz lost Karako in
the second round by less than 1 percent). In District 6,
Finance Minister Janos Veres is also in a close race against

BUDAPEST 00000644 002 OF 003


FIDESZ's Miklos Simon, and many locals expect that MSZP will
prevail. (Note: In the first round of the 2002 elections,
Veres and Simon were neck and neck. Veres lost to Simon by 20
percent in the second round which is likely due to MDF and
other small parties throwing their weight to Simon.) Even if
their national prominence is not enough to win the individual
districts, the cabinet ministers have nothing to worry about;
Juhasz is 9th on MSZP's national list and Veres is 1st on
MSZP's county list and 11th on its national list,
guaranteeing them seats in parliament. Both Zajacz and Man
also predicted that MSZP would win both seats in Nyiregyhaza
and could conceivably gain up to four new seats in the
countryside, although most of the races are too close to
call.


7. (SBU) Important issues differentiate Nyiregyhaza and the
rest of the county said Zajacz. Nyiregyhaza is thriving as a
result of commercial development and the arrival of
multinational companies such as Tesco. Because of this,
unemployment is at three percent compared to the
approximately 15 percent in the countryside and most people
attribute this to Csabai's leadership. The main concern in
town is reducing traffic. (Currently there is no ring road
around the city and all trucking traffic passes through the
town center, as poloffs found out firsthand.) In the
environs, the major issue is unemployment and the lack of any
regional infrastructure. FIDESZ is campaigning on the lack
of infrastructure development during the last four years,
but they are hampered by the fact that an extension of the
main M-3 highway to Nyiregyhaza is under development and
should be completed by Fall. Both journalists stated that
since so much of the county's economy is based on agriculture
(grain, fruit and tobacco) many voters want to rebuild the
local economy by developing the border region. Man said that
discussions about a proposed European highway to Moscow and
extending the Trans-Siberian Railroad to the region would
make Nyiregyhaza an important transport hub again and
revitalize the once important and lucrative agriculture trade
with Russia.

--------------
Russia The Savior
--------------


8. (SBU) Laszlo Peko, investor and head of the County
Chamber of Commerce and Industry also emphasized the
potential benefits of closer ties to Russia. He told poloffs
on March 23 that the best way to help the depressed
agricultural economy and high unemployment was to develop
border crossings with Ukraine and Romania and rebuild trade
with Russia. He stated that since Hungary's EU accession,
Hungarian businesses are losing out to multi-national
corporations and so the protectionist rhetoric of FIDESZ
appeals to many local businessman. On the other hand said
Peko, Hungary was definitely better off as wages have
increased and inflation is low. Peko brought up Putin's
recent visit to Hungary and the warming of relations and said
that such actions increased the hope of restoring regional
trade with Russia. Peko said that local businessman realize
Orban's xenophobic posturing and history of cold relations
with Russia would likely mean that the new relations would
not continue if FIDESZ came to power. As an employer, Peko
also expressed doubt about FIDESZ's promises to lower social
security contributions as a way to create jobs, saying that
the budget shortfall would have to made up somehow, probably
through other taxes. He also stated that the bloated public
administration budget would have to be cut but that this
would devastate many of the local villages where the only
employment was often through some form of the local
government. Peko estimated that MSZP would win District 2
and probably District 1 along with half the remaining
individual seats.


9. (SBU) Peko said that religious sentiment particularly
Catholicism, is very strong in the countryside and added that
it was "obvious" the Roman Catholic Church supports FIDESZ.
The Roma were not a factor according to Peko, as they are
easily manipulated, giving their votes for a "few sausages."
He mentioned that many politicians use Roma in the common
practice of "chain" voting. (Note: Chain voting is a process
in which a non-Roma "handler" goes in to vote and brings out
the blank ballot. He then fills it out and gives it to a
Roma who gets a blank ballot but drops the filled out ballot
in the box. When that Roma comes out he gives the blank
ballot to the handler in exchange for a bribe and then the
handler fills out the blank ballot and gives it to the next
Roma voter and so on. As other inhabitants of eastern Hungary
have noted (see ref b) Peko said that the number of all-Roma
or majority-Roma villages were increasing. He claimed that

BUDAPEST 00000644 003 OF 003


this was due to the higher Roma birthrate and the fact that
while the high unemployment rate is driving many villagers to
the city, the Roma cannot afford to leave.

--------------
Two Views on Unemployment
--------------


10. (SBU) Poloffs also met with Attila Kantar, principal of
a public school in one of Nyiregyhaza's communist-era
"planned" communities. Kantar said that while national
issues were important to local voters, unemployment was the
key local issue. Kantar noted a recent trend of increased
enrollment at the school and attributed this to villagers who
were moving to the city to take advantage of its low
unemployment rate. For his students and their families, the
deciding factor in their choice of career tracks was job
security. Kantar said that MSZP would win at least one seat
in Nyiregyhaza and maybe two along with four seats outside
the city. Kantar said he was of the perception that
religious involvement in politics was a growing trend. His
views of Roma as a political force were that of other
interlocutors, but he did make a distinction between "city"
Roma and "country" Roma, saying that those in the city were
less likely to be manipulated.


11. (SBU) Dr. Joszef Varadi, a retired Catholic priest took
the FIDESZ line. He told Poloffs that the unemployment
situation in the countryside would actually help MSZP because
the unemployed "sit around all day watching TV" and so are
easily manipulated. Varadi attributed the increasing power
of MSZP in the region to the local paper being owned by a
"left-wing German news consortium." Varadi decried the lack
of values among MSZP and SZDSZ and said they did not care
about Hungary's decreasing population, which was a result of
abortion and "loose" interpretations of marriage. The priest
cited Orban's protectionist ideas as a good thing, saying
that multinational corporations are taking jobs away. Varadi
said that it did not matter if the Church tried to get
involved in politics, because even if the priest told the
congregation what to do they would be too "insensitive to the
issues to do anything." Varadi thought that SZDSZ's handling
of education and the attempts to force school integration of
Roma had damaged the educational system and done nothing for
the Roma. (Comment: Despite the strong opinions expressed,
Varadi presented them calmly and matter of factly, often with
humor.) Despite being so obviously a FIDESZ supporter, Varadi
stopped short of making any predictions for the county,
saying that all the races were unpredictable and too close to
call.


12. (U) Visit U.S. Embassy Budapest's Classified website at:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/budapest/index.cfm.
REEKER