FORM FOLLOWS FUNCTION: GOH CONSIDERS ITS NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 002505 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2011 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS HU SUBJECT: FORM FOLLOWS FUNCTION: GOH CONSIDERS ITS NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY AND BUREAUCRACY REF: BUDAPEST 2500 Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI ¶1. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador Foley December 13 before leaving on a brief trip to Afghanistan, ICDT Director Ambassador Istvan Gyarmati previewed potential changes in the GoH's foreign policy bureaucracy. A SHORT WINTER'S NAP ¶2. (C) Noting the tendency of the bureaucracy to "hibernate," Gyarmati indicated that he is now working on a number of things to "wake them up" in the New Year. On Afghanistan, Gyarmati plans to recommend the creation of a special coordinator to ride herd on the GoH's plans for the civilian side of its Provincial Reconstruction Team. He acknowledged widespread dissatisfaction with the performance of State Secretary Gemesi in the PM's Office (echoing our contacts SIPDIS throughout the GoH) and noted that he will suggest a "diplomatic excuse" to "neutralize him" by establishing a full-time position to coordinate the GoH's efforts in Afghanistan. He will also recommend that the State Security Cabinet convene regularly to discuss the PRT in order to encourage ownership at the highest levels. NEW FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY ¶3. (C) Afghanistan is lending momentum to the consideration of broader structural reforms in the Hungarian bureaucracy. Gyarmati confided that he and four colleagues from across the political spectrum are now working on a draft foreign policy strategy at the Foreign Minister's request. The report will cover security, economic, and cultural issues, and will be geared to promote a public debate regarding Hungary's foreign policy priorities. Gyarmati indicated that the decision to turn to outside experts to formulate the strategy had already prompted dissatisfaction within the Ministry. (Note: although Gyarmati asked us to keep the project in confidence, word is clearly out. FM Goncz was questioned about the project while appearing before the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee last week, with Chairman Zsolt Nemeth asking sarcastically "why does Hungary need a new foreign policy strategy with such a successful record?" End Note.) NATIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY ¶4. (C) Gyarmati has also been asked by DefMin Szekeres to chair a group of interdisciplinary experts assigned to prepare a new National Military Strategy. He noted that the document will advocate a fundamental shift from territorial defense to deployability. It will also press for far-reaching reforms in personnel, defense planning, command structure, and resource management, consistent with Gyarmati's belief that the GoH should not allow its current budgetary straits to prevent an essential structural overhaul of the MOD in the near-term. NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL? ¶5. (C) Gyarmati also confided that he is working on a proposal requested by PM Gyurcsany re the creation of a formal National Security Council. Gyarmati noted that he has been a long-time advocate of such a step, and believes that the demonstrations have impressed upon the PM the importance of improving the GoH's crisis management capabilities. Gyarmati envisions a formal "Foreign and Security Policy Board" consisting of the MOD, Justice and Law Enforcement Ministry, Finance Ministry, Ministry of Economy, and chaired by the MFA. The body would be supported by a small permanent staff of "5 - 6 experts and seconded detailees" and run by "someone with gravitas ... and Gyurcsany's ear." Also demonstrating what Gyarmati described as a new focus on "governing and not just campaigning," Gyurcsany has indicated his intention to form a panel of outside experts to review and comment on all recommendations made to the cabinet. Gyarmati predicted considerable opposition to his proposals from the bureaucracy, but noted that the PM had specifically asked for recommendations to consider over his upcoming Christmas vacation. ¶6. (C) Comment: By his own admission, Gyarmati wears "so many hats I get confused when I look at myself in the mirror." Although he repeatedly denied any interest in joining the new national structure he is recommending, many will see his policy recommendations as self-promotion. That should not undermine their obvious utility - and indeed necessity - in a bureaucracy whose limitations have been exposed by the challenge of its PRT in Afghanistan (reftel). End Comment. BUDAPEST 00002505 002 OF 002 FOLEY