ROUGH EDGES: FIDESZ MODERATE LOOKS TO HUNGARY'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 002419

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2011
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON HU
SUBJECT: ROUGH EDGES: FIDESZ MODERATE LOOKS TO HUNGARY'S
FUTURE ... AND HIS OWN

REF: BUDAPEST 2377

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Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) FIDESZ moderate MP Lajos Kosa made his debut on the
diplomatic circuit at a lunch hosted by Ambassador Foley for
key colleagues November 29. A founding member of the party
and the popular Mayor of Debrecen, Kosa's reputation for
straight talk (and often off-color humor) have made him a
leading topic in discussion of future FIDESZ leadership
scenarios - sometimes archly referred to in the diplomatic
community as the "post-Viktorian era."

REFORM IS THE ANSWER ... BUT WHAT'S THE QUESTION?


2. (C) Kosa demonstrated his willingness to deviate from the
party line immediately, describing Hungary's current
situation as "an economic problem we've made into a political
crisis." Reforms are obviously necessary, he continued, but
Hungarians "don't even know what questions to ask."


3. (C) Kosa believes the problems run far deeper than the
current partisan impasse. The constitution, he commented,
has failed to provide a system of institutional checks and
balances, and Hungary is struggling under a dysfunctional
electoral system, "useless" media laws, and "poorly defined"
presidential powers. Without addressing these systemic
problems, he concluded, Hungary cannot begin to establish
policy priorities. He also warned that the popular focus on
"catching up to the European mainstream" may be the wrong
goal, citing serious concerns regarding the sustainability of
growth in countries held up as examples.

ALL POLITICS IS GLOBAL


4. (C) Kosa was similarly candid in dismissing FIDESZ's new
emphasis on coordination among local government bodies
(reftel) as an "impossible task." He stated bluntly that
Debrecen's economy is more closely tied to Romania than to
most other Hungarian communities, and believes that regional
stability will remain a necessary condition for Hungary's
economic prosperity. Although he criticized the Gyurcsany
government for not taking a more active role to promote
regional progress, he remarked that all parties view foreign
policy only as another front in their domestic conflict,
seeking to use foreign contacts to score domestic points.

IT'S NOT A PARTY UNTIL SOMETHING GETS BROKEN


5. (C) Kosa was similarly pragmatic in assessing the current
dynamic within FIDESZ. The opposition, he stated, is in no
position to criticize the government on the grounds of
competence or corruption given its own shortcomings. The
only advantage FIDESZ possesses, he explained, is its lack of
association with Hungary's past, a particularly important
distinction given the strong "moral dimension" of Hungarian
politics.


6. (C) That said, Kosa appeared in no hurry to see PM
Gyurcsany go, noting that the MSZP could withdraw its support
"in the Spring" in favor of alternatives such as Parliament
Speaker Katalin Szili, but saw no real alternative to
austerity measures. "Why," he asked, "should the opposition
press for the removal of a Prime Minister who is "making the
hard decisions and taking the heat ?" For his part, he would
sit down with "the red Devil himself" if it would help his
constituents.


7. (C) Kosa demurred in discussion of his own political
future, emphasizing his personal friendship with Orban but
bluntly predicting "he will never be Prime Minister again."
Referring to his own recent comments that he would be in a
"poor position to be party president" - comments with which
Orban was eager to agree - Kosa noted that he has been in
office a long time and is sensitive to the risk of staying
too long. Referring to his own situation - and to Orban's as
well - he concluded that "politicians must know when to step
down."


8. (C) Comment: Politicians must also know when to step up.
Kosa has rough edges, and he strayed frequently into
minefields in discussion with the ambassadors with offhand
remarks and colorful language. But these can be assets in
Hungarian politics, and our colleagues found his candid
approach refreshing and hope to see more of him on the
diplomatic circuit. By his own admission, Kosa has focused
on local issues for more than a decade and is widely credited
for Debrecen's dramatic turn-around. He received more than
70% of the vote in the October local elections, and the
possibility that he has national ambitions is only now

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occurring to others in the party. It is a development many
in the FIDESZ rank-and-file would welcome given Kosa's
reputation as an effective administrator and a pragmatic
leader. It is accordingly a development Orban will regard
with suspicion, and he has already moved to cast his shadow
over the party's newest fora so that no rivals will find
daylight there (reftel). Often regarded as "the MSZP's
favorite FIDESZ member," Kosa publicly stated that he would
"defend the MSZP headquarters with my own body" in order to
demonstrate his opposition to violence. He has given private
indications that he would consider a run at the party
leadership but only if Orban moves on of his own free will.
That may not be an option, and Kosa will have determine
whether - or when - he will be prepared to act as bluntly as
he speaks. End Comment.


REEKER