ROUGH EDGES: FIDESZ MODERATE LOOKS TO HUNGARY'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 002419 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2011 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON HU SUBJECT: ROUGH EDGES: FIDESZ MODERATE LOOKS TO HUNGARY'S FUTURE ... AND HIS OWN REF: BUDAPEST 2377 BUDAPEST 00002419 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) FIDESZ moderate MP Lajos Kosa made his debut on the diplomatic circuit at a lunch hosted by Ambassador Foley for key colleagues November 29. A founding member of the party and the popular Mayor of Debrecen, Kosa's reputation for straight talk (and often off-color humor) have made him a leading topic in discussion of future FIDESZ leadership scenarios - sometimes archly referred to in the diplomatic community as the "post-Viktorian era." REFORM IS THE ANSWER ... BUT WHAT'S THE QUESTION? ¶2. (C) Kosa demonstrated his willingness to deviate from the party line immediately, describing Hungary's current situation as "an economic problem we've made into a political crisis." Reforms are obviously necessary, he continued, but Hungarians "don't even know what questions to ask." ¶3. (C) Kosa believes the problems run far deeper than the current partisan impasse. The constitution, he commented, has failed to provide a system of institutional checks and balances, and Hungary is struggling under a dysfunctional electoral system, "useless" media laws, and "poorly defined" presidential powers. Without addressing these systemic problems, he concluded, Hungary cannot begin to establish policy priorities. He also warned that the popular focus on "catching up to the European mainstream" may be the wrong goal, citing serious concerns regarding the sustainability of growth in countries held up as examples. ALL POLITICS IS GLOBAL ¶4. (C) Kosa was similarly candid in dismissing FIDESZ's new emphasis on coordination among local government bodies (reftel) as an "impossible task." He stated bluntly that Debrecen's economy is more closely tied to Romania than to most other Hungarian communities, and believes that regional stability will remain a necessary condition for Hungary's economic prosperity. Although he criticized the Gyurcsany government for not taking a more active role to promote regional progress, he remarked that all parties view foreign policy only as another front in their domestic conflict, seeking to use foreign contacts to score domestic points. IT'S NOT A PARTY UNTIL SOMETHING GETS BROKEN ¶5. (C) Kosa was similarly pragmatic in assessing the current dynamic within FIDESZ. The opposition, he stated, is in no position to criticize the government on the grounds of competence or corruption given its own shortcomings. The only advantage FIDESZ possesses, he explained, is its lack of association with Hungary's past, a particularly important distinction given the strong "moral dimension" of Hungarian politics. ¶6. (C) That said, Kosa appeared in no hurry to see PM Gyurcsany go, noting that the MSZP could withdraw its support "in the Spring" in favor of alternatives such as Parliament Speaker Katalin Szili, but saw no real alternative to austerity measures. "Why," he asked, "should the opposition press for the removal of a Prime Minister who is "making the hard decisions and taking the heat ?" For his part, he would sit down with "the red Devil himself" if it would help his constituents. ¶7. (C) Kosa demurred in discussion of his own political future, emphasizing his personal friendship with Orban but bluntly predicting "he will never be Prime Minister again." Referring to his own recent comments that he would be in a "poor position to be party president" - comments with which Orban was eager to agree - Kosa noted that he has been in office a long time and is sensitive to the risk of staying too long. Referring to his own situation - and to Orban's as well - he concluded that "politicians must know when to step down." ¶8. (C) Comment: Politicians must also know when to step up. Kosa has rough edges, and he strayed frequently into minefields in discussion with the ambassadors with offhand remarks and colorful language. But these can be assets in Hungarian politics, and our colleagues found his candid approach refreshing and hope to see more of him on the diplomatic circuit. By his own admission, Kosa has focused on local issues for more than a decade and is widely credited for Debrecen's dramatic turn-around. He received more than 70% of the vote in the October local elections, and the possibility that he has national ambitions is only now BUDAPEST 00002419 002 OF 002 occurring to others in the party. It is a development many in the FIDESZ rank-and-file would welcome given Kosa's reputation as an effective administrator and a pragmatic leader. It is accordingly a development Orban will regard with suspicion, and he has already moved to cast his shadow over the party's newest fora so that no rivals will find daylight there (reftel). Often regarded as "the MSZP's favorite FIDESZ member," Kosa publicly stated that he would "defend the MSZP headquarters with my own body" in order to demonstrate his opposition to violence. He has given private indications that he would consider a run at the party leadership but only if Orban moves on of his own free will. That may not be an option, and Kosa will have determine whether - or when - he will be prepared to act as bluntly as he speaks. End Comment. REEKER