HUNGARIAN CONFIDENCE VOTE: GYURCSANY'S MAJORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 002045 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC - DAMON WILSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2011 TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN CONFIDENCE VOTE: GYURCSANY'S MAJORITY HOLDS REF: BUDAPEST 2027 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: POL/C Eric V. Gaudiosi; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Hungarian parliament affirmed its confidence in Prime Minister Gyurcsany by a 207 - 165 margin following short and often sharp debate in an extraordinary session October 6. Speakers from the governing coalition including the PM emphasized their willingness to confront a legacy of political and irresponsibility, affirming their intention to undertake critical reforms. They also focused attention on the underlying issue: the opposition's willingness to "blackmail" Hungary for its own political ends. Markets responded positively to the confidence vote. FIDESZ has responded by calling for daily peaceful demonstrations against the government in front of Parliament. End Summary. Gyurcsany: An Apology and a Challenge ¶2. (U) Opening the session with a nearly 40-minute speech, a composed Prime Minister framed the choice now before Hungary as one between peace and chaos. He issued an apology for the wording of his comments on the "Gyurcsany tape" but not for his words. After "sixteen years" of "lying to ourselves that our problems would solve themselves," he expressed pride in his government's commitment to finally confront "a system of self-delusion." Hungary can no longer delay its day of reckoning, and the government's responsibility is to help the nation bear "the price of freedom." ¶3. (U) The Prime Minister acknowledged "too much confidence and too much speed" in pursuing reforms, pledging to move forward in keeping with "the nation's stamina." Referring to recent reports re a FIDESZ austerity package, Gyurcsany asserted that the governing coalition "is the only party with a realistic plan." ¶3. (U) Gyurcsany also expressed his regret that his comments had provided the opposition with the pretext to pursue its "desire for power." Confronting FIDESZ leader Orban openly, he noted that "democracy must defend itself" from challenges to the constitution and called on the parliament to reject the ultimata of "the vocal minority." "Street action is not order," he concluded, "and Parliament must not surrender." Concluding to loud applause from coalition MPs, Gyurcsany emphasized that the nation needs "peace and tranquillity," he concluded, and for that the government must have strong mandate. ¶4. (U) MSZP parliamentary faction leader Ildiko Lendvai continued the coalition's counterattack. Casting the debate as a question of "progress versus fear," she derided FIDESZ's claims to stand for law and order as well as reform. "FIDESZ is telling the nation it will put away its nationalist banners if we surrender and give them what they want," she commented, "and then they'll go back to drawing up lists of Jewish politicians." "Orban," she continued, "cannot bring people back from the streets because he is too far gone himself." The government's role and its responsibility, she reiterated, is "to listen and to lead" Hungary into the future. FIDESZ Response ¶5. (U) Speaking for FIDESZ, parliamentary faction leader Tibor Navracsics stood in the aisle and asked if the coalition had "nothing save fear-mongering and attacks on Viktor Orban?" He reiterated the party's claim that Gyurcsany had won the April elections "on false pretenses and false information," arguing that Gyurcsany had "not confessed but been caught" in a "spiral of lies." Quoting an adage from Hungary's transition from Communism to reiterate the party's call for Gyurcsany's resignation, he warned that "a communist dog will never give democratic bacon." Coalition Partners Line Up: Left, Right, and Center ¶6. (U) Following Navracsics' comments, SZDSZ leader Gabor Kuncze took the podium and commented "we've had 80 minutes of debate and I've yet to hear a constructive plan from FIDESZ." The issue before parliament, he charged, is whether Hungary will be ruled by parliamentary democracy or by those in the street who believe "FIDESZ's mountain of lies." "I don't want to blame Viktor Orban," Kuncze continued, "but I have no reason to praise him." If Orban wishes to lead the street, Kuncze challenged, "he should resign from parliament." ¶7. (U) Kuncze's comments were followed by remarks by Zsolt Semjen of the KDNP (FIDESZ's junior coalition partner). BUDAPEST 00002045 002 OF 002 Semjen charged that Gyurcsany's "socialist millionaires" would continue to plunder Hungary through the privatization process, but his remarks did little to take the momentum away from the governing coalition. His assertion that "Viktor Orban does not want power," for example, was met by loud laughter from the floor and the gallery. ¶8. (U) MDF Leader Ibolya David concluded the parties' formal remarks. Noting October 6 as day of mourning for the heroes of the 1848 Revolution, she commented that "today we hang our heads in sorrow and in shame" at the current state of affairs. She called on all parties to work together in Parliament to "stop waging war on the future" because "disunity is a luxury we cannot afford." She announced her party's intention to vote against the Prime Minister for having "lost credibility by misleading the Hungarian people" but underscored her commitment to reform and her rejection of extra-constitutional tactics. The Winner Is ... ¶9. (U) After brief remarks by individual members, the Parliament voted by open voice call. The announcement of the government's 207 - 165 victory was met with prolonged applause by the coalition. ¶10. (U) The results of the vote largely confirmed market expectations, with a rapid strengthening of the forint and flash analysis from multiple rating agencies suggesting deepening confidence in the government. Major financial community analysts have suggested this week that they are most interested in seeing concrete implementation of government reforms, but welcome the positive confidence vote as confirmation of movement in that direction. ¶11. (C) Comment: The coalition succeeded not only in holding firm but also in taking the offensive. In their strong and coordinated comments, Gyurcsany, Lendvai, and Kuncze clearly sought to focus the debate on the future rather than the past. Moreover, they effectively highlighted the critical distinction between the government and the opposition: the willingness to pursue their goals through the system rather than the streets. As Gyurcsany noted, "Gyurcsany or Orban is not the question, it is the consequence" of these broader and deeper questions. ¶12. (U) Comment Continued: Although Orban did not speak during the debate, he did address a large crowd in front of parliament following the vote. Although crowds variously estimated between 50,000 and 300,000 were expected, embassy personnel on the scene report that Orban asked those present to return every night between 5:00 and 6:00 to peacefully protest against the Gyurscany government. End Comment. FOLEY