MESSAGE ON LATIN AMERICA RESONATES WITH EU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000472 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016 TAGS: PREL ECON ETRD EAID VE BL CU POGV EUN USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: MESSAGE ON LATIN AMERICA RESONATES WITH EU REF: A. A) USEU TODAY 02/02/06 ¶B. B) BRUSSELS 208 ¶C. C) 05 BRUSSELS 4172 ¶D. D) 05 BRUSSELS 4149 ¶E. E) 05 BRUSSELS 3886 Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During his recent visit to Brussels, WHA A/S Shannon's message that the U.S. was seeking partners in promoting the Summit of the Americas agenda for the hemisphere resonated strongly with EU officials, including EU HighRep Javier Solana. On Venezuela, the EU said it would continue to use its dwindling channels of communication to try to moderate Chavez. On Bolivia, the EU agreed that the EC-funded study on legal uses of coca leaf might establish a ceiling for legal production over which Morales might be persuaded to commit to support eradication and interdiction. Solana said he expected the EU-Latin America summit in Vienna in May to be inconclusive, but stressed the importance of tackling the problems of the region strategically, and indicated interest in discussing Latin America when he next comes to Washington. Shannon also received a private briefing on an emerging draft EU policy paper on Cuba transition that mirrors our approach in significant ways. Our stepped-up engagement with the EU on Latin America is bearing fruit, and we should continue to consult closely with the EU on promoting democracy and development in the region. END SUMMARY. -------------- - THE MESSAGE: LINKING DEMOCRACY AND DEVELOPMENT -------------- - ¶2. (SBU) WHA Assistant Secretary Tom Shannon found significant common ground with the EU on Latin America in discussions with the Council Secretariat (EU HighRep Solana, Policy Unit Head Helga Schmid, Director for Transatlantic Relations Jim Cloos, and Latin America Policy Adviser Nicolas Pascual de la Parte),European Commission (Latin American Affairs Director Tomas Dupla del Moral, Deputy Director-General for Trade Karl Falkenberg and Development Director for the Caribbean Sipke Brouwer),European Parliament (Jose Ignacio Salafranca, center-right Foreign Affairs Coordinator, Arunas Degutis, Head of the EP ad-hoc Election Observation Mission to Venezuela, and others),and Political and Security Committee Ambassadors. Shannon highlighted the importance of the Summit of the Americas agenda for the hemisphere, with its stress on strengthening democratic institutions, promoting economic development and fighting poverty and drugs. It is up to the countries themselves to deliver on these goals, but many countries in the hemisphere, especially in the Andean region, need help in building democratic institutions and strengthening civil society while overcoming the political, economic and social exclusion of large segments of their populations. In order to move forward, the hemisphere must also overcome its parochialism, and consciously take part in a competitive global environment. While populism is not necessarily unhealthy, its resurgence in the hemisphere is a sign that democracy must be linked with development. The U.S. alone cannot provide the help these societies need to face these challenges -- so we are seeking partners, both in and outside of the region. -------------- EU RESPONSE: OUR AGENDAS COINCIDE -------------- ¶3. (C) Javier Solana, EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, responded to Shannon's message with ideas that were echoed by Shannon's other interlocutors. Solana said EU interests and objectives in the hemisphere coincided with those of the U.S., and, although Latin America and the Caribbean were not as high on the EU agenda as the Middle East and Eastern Europe, Solana would be interested in discussing the region the next time he is in Washington. He strongly agreed with the approach of tackling the problems of the region strategically, saying that is what he hoped the EU would begin to do more effectively in its regular EU-Latin America summits (while adding that he expected the May summit in Vienna to be inconclusive). Key to a more effective approach would be more consultations with the U.S. Other interlocutors, while agreeing with Solana, stressed also that the EU's influence in the region was strengthened in proportion to its perceived autonomy from the U.S. -- thus, the U.S. and EU should consult in order to make their policies more complementary and effective, but at the same time move forward as separate actors in the region. -------------- SHARED CONCERNS ON DEMOCRACY IN VENEZUELA -------------- ¶4. (C) On Venezuela, Shannon said the phenomenon of Hugo Chavez represents an attempt to promote an alternative agenda for Latin America, based on strong-man authoritarianism, a nationalistic economic model and anti-Americanism, that will prove destructive to the region. Chavez has made a strategic decision to make anti-Americanism his core message. He is systematically cutting ties to the U.S. and trying to provoke a fight that the U.S. intends to avoid. In this context, Venezuela is using its arms acquisitions to fuel the political confrontation with the U.S., and it is a seriously wrong signal for other countries to sell sophisticated weaponry to the GOV. Ultimately, the core U.S. concern about Venezuela is the deterioration of democratic institutions and of the ability of Venezuelans to exercise their democratic rights. ¶5. (C) EU interlocutors said the EU was concerned also by the degradation of democracy in Venezuela, Chavez's anti-American rhetoric and the polarization in Venezuelan society. The EU's leverage is limited, but it can play a role. Chavez is still talking to the EU and does not want the EU to turn publicly against the GOV -- the EU will keep its channels of communication open to push against the weakening of democratic institutions and support civil society. Despite Chavez's very aggressive reaction to the criticisms in the preliminary report of the EU Election Observation Mission of December, the EU will stick to its guns and issue a tough final report in February. It will also try to convince the GOV to make the changes needed in order to hold legitimate presidential elections this December. -------------- BOLIVIA: KEEPING THE DOOR OPEN -------------- ¶6. (C) Shannon noted that, during his meeting with Bolivian President Evo Morales at his January inauguration, Morales stressed the necessity of relations with the U.S. and wanted to keep the door open. At the same time, Morales will have to deal with a very demanding constituency that includes radical elements. It is important that Morales hear other voices, and the European message to him during his trip to the continent in January, on democracy, relations with the U.S., protecting foreign investment and fighting drugs, was encouraging. On counternarcotics efforts in Boliva, the U.S. will do what it can, but others, such as the OAS and Brazil, will have to step up to fill the gaps. The drug issue is the main factor that makes dealing with Morales complicated. It would be very helpful if the EC-funded study on legal uses of coca leaf established a ceiling for legal production over which Morales might be persuaded to commit to support eradication and interdiction. ¶7. (C) The EU said it remains in wait-and-see mode on Morales. The hope is that he will make the transformation from head of a political and social movement to head of a government. Morales has a gift for telling people what they want to hear, and some of those he has appointed to key posts are cause for worry despite some of Morales' recent conciliatory rhetoric. The EU agreed that the coca leaf study could be key to finding a modus vivendi between Bolivia and the international community on drug policy. European Commission officials plan to visit Bolivia in February to check on progress of the study, which the EC expects will be completed by October. The study might be enlarged to examine the question of industrial uses of coca leaf. The EC is concerned that the GOB might want to remove coca leaf from UN Schedule No. 1, which the EU would not accept. -------------- NEW, PRO-TRANSITION CUBA POLICY? -------------- ¶8. (C/NOFORN) Stressing the extreme sensitivity of the issue, and of talking about it with the U.S., a Council official (STRICTLY PROTECT AND NOFORN) met separately with Shannon to discuss an EU policy paper he is drafting confidentially on the "EU Medium-Term Strategy Towards Democracy in Cuba." The paper, which Pascual predicted would be approved by June with no more than minor changes (he has already consulted with key member states such as Spain and Poland, although not yet with the Czechs),advocates significant changes in EU Cuba policy, and much closer consultation with the U.S. ¶9. (C/NOFORN) Key assertions and proposals in the paper are: -- the EU policy of constructive engagement has failed because it is based on wishful thinking (a transition from within the Castro regime),and does not envisage a post-Castro scenario. -- The EU must define an operational medium-term policy encouraging a transition to pluralist democracy post-Castro, taking into account all plausible post-Castro scenarios, but elaborating a strategy especially to promote a gradual and peaceful transition. -- U.S.-EU divisions over Cuba have served the interests of the Cuban regime; therefore the U.S. and EU should enhance their dialogue on Cuba and seek synergies on demanding release of political prisoners, supporting and financing civil society, monitoring and denouncing human rights violations, and so on. (NOTE: Many of the concrete EU measures proposed in the paper are exactly those the U.S. has been urging the EU to take: providing the opposition access to information, publications, internet facilities; meeting with civil society throughout the island in their homes, and endorsing and financing independent cultural initiatives such as independent libraries. END NOTE.) -- The EU approach should aim to reinforce the impact of complementary U.S. and EU efforts; the EU policy should be outwardly autonomous from that of the U.S., in order to increase the effectiveness of both approaches. -------------- EU FRUSTRATIONS ON ECONOMICS AND TRADE -------------- ¶10. (C) Shannon stressed the key role that FTAs and economic integration efforts in the hemisphere play in improving economic competitiveness, spurring economic growth and reducing poverty. He said the efforts of other trading partners were important in overcoming the hemisphere's parochialism and encouraging Latin America to see itself as a player in a competitive global environment. EU interlocutors' assessment of the progress of the EU's trade and economic agenda with Latin America was subdued. With Mercosur and the Andean Community making insufficient progress on regional economic integration, forward movement on long-planned but long-stalled Association Agreements and FTAs with these blocs would likely not take place in the foreseeable future. This is especially so with the uncertainty created by Venezuela's stated intention to join Mercosur. The EU, which provided 442 million euros in development assistance to Latin America in 2005, sees regional integration as key to Latin America's economic and political development, and is disturbed both by lack of real progress on that front and Chavez's efforts to redirect regional integration to advance his vision for the hemisphere. -------------- COMMENT: MESSAGE RESONATES WITH EU -------------- ¶11. (C) The message of strengthening democratic institutions, and of the necessity of linking that with development and poverty reduction, resonated strongly with the EU. This visit, following on the heels of several other WHA visits in recent months (reftels),has helped clarify our interests and objectives in the hemisphere and spurred the EU to explore how better to complement our efforts there. This includes not only the broad objectives of democracy promotion and economic development, but also the questions of how to deal with resurgent populism, the new Bolivian government, and the Chavez phenomenon in Venezuela. On all of these issues, the EU is listening receptively, while carefully maintaining its independence from the U.S. in the region. We believe the draft paper on Cuba will have a tougher time getting final approval than its author predicts (see paras 8-9). Nevertheless, the paper shows that even on that issue, considerable progress has been made in increasing understanding for the U.S. approach. END COMMENT. ¶12. (U) This message was not cleared by WHA A/S Shannon before his departure. MCKINLEY .