SOLANA TELLS NATSIOS EU AND US NEED JOINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004195 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016 TAGS: BE PREL SU SUBJECT: SOLANA TELLS NATSIOS EU AND US NEED JOINT ACTIONABLE PLAN FOR DARFUR Classified By: PolMinCouns Laurence Wohlers for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) . 1.(C) Summary: In a Dec. 15 meeting, EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana told visiting Special Envoy for Sudan Andrew Natsios the EU and US must stop making idle threats that cannot be backed by action. He called for a new Darfur strategy that is "visible, doable, and (then) done," and pledged to come with several proposals when he visits Washington January 3-5. Solana and Natsios agreed they face daunting challenges including a lack of leverage with President Bashir, who steadfastly refuses to accept UN peacekeepers and makes deals with regional leaders that effectively block them from acting against him. In a separate meeting, EU Commissioner Louis Michel told Natsios he would like to convene an EU-Arab summit to draw in Arab countries as partners, and he would like to approach conflicts in the Horn of Africa as an interconnected whole. Another EU official suggested regular ministerial dialogues on Sudan similar to those already taking place on Cote d'Ivoire, All sides concurred that the end of UNSYG Kofi Annan's term could leave an unfortunate global leadership void on the Darfur issue. Michel, Solana, and Natsios agreed there are serious management and corruption problems with the current AMIS force, and that both the EU and US are running out of money to continue AMIS funding. End Summary. Current Situation Grim -------------- 2.(C) Natsios, stopping in Brussels on his way back from Sudan, told EU leaders that conditions in Sudan have deteriorated markedly since his last visit two months ago. He said the US is committed to seeing outgoing UNSYG Annan's Darfur plan implemented, but that plan is trapped in a Catch-22. The Annan plan cannot be implemented without President Bashir's acceptance of UN peacekeepers, but Bashir would find it difficult to back down now from his public refusal to accept the peacekeepers. Solana, the EU's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, said Bashir is ignoring the US and EU because they have made repeated idle threats but have no real leverage to implement them. He called for fresh approaches that are realistic and look at all the regional pieces to the Darfur situation. Once the USG labeled the killings in Darfur a genocide, it became unconscionable not to seek solutions, Solana said. Regional Players -------------- 3.(C) An overarching theme of Natsios's discussions with EU officials concerned the role of regional players, many of whom have been skillfully co-opted by Bashir. They include Nigeria, where Bashir has reportedly told President Obasanjo he will stay out of Nigerian politics if Obasanjo stays out of Sudanese affairs, Natsios said. Bashir reportedly told African Union (AU) President Konare that northern Mali could become an outpost for radicals and terrorists if the AU intervenes against Bashir's wishes in Sudan, said Natsios. Bashir is currently president of the Arab League and has used that position to focus the attention of Arab countries on the Middle East and away from Sudan. Even in tiny Burundi, the president of the party is a powerful Muslim who has forged close relations with the leaders of Sudan, Iran, and Chad, and threatens the power of President Ndayizeye on a daily basis, Michel said. Chad and Libya also wield important influence in Darfur, Natsios said. Meanwhile, on the economic front, China continues to work closely with Sudan while refusing to engage in any political discussions about human rights or protection of civilians. Adding all these pieces together, the question becomes whether the US and EU are relevant to Bashir's view of Sudan and whether he has any incentive to listen. Getting Bashir's Attention -------------- 4.(C) Solana and Michel, meeting separately with Natsios, said one roadblock to Bashir's cooperation has been Bashir's belief that the EU and US are seeking regime change in Sudan. Natsios said the US administration is not seeking regime change, but some members of Congress, as well as NGOs, including the International Crisis Group, have called for regime change, making Bashir reluctant to believe the official USG position. Michel suggested the way to get Bashir BRUSSELS 00004195 002 OF 002 to listen is to talk concretely about Bashir's future and the future of Sudan. Bashir fears that UN peacekeepers will arrest Sudanese leaders and turn them over to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Natsios said Secretary Rice has tried to turn that argument on its head by saying the US could turn over all evidence of war crimes to the ICC unless Bashir allows UN peacekeepers into Sudan. ¶5. (C) At President Bashir's request, Natsios said he agreed to support a UNSC Presidential Statement (PRST) reaffirming the Abuja and Addis framework agreements. More radical leverage points, including implementation of a no-fly zone over Sudan, blocking the Port of Sudan, and initiating petroleum sanctions were discussed by Natsios and EU officials as possible, but at the moment unlikely, options. Natsios said the US may be willing to use more coercive measures, but not unilaterally. All sides lamented the end of Annan's term as UNSYG, saying it will take time for the new SYG to reach Annan's level of familiarity with the players and issues. Michel believes there is room to engage Arab countries on Sudan if the EU and US talk to them as serious and trusted partners. He would like to convene an EU-Arab summit, but said he would likely encounter resistance from some EU member states. Natsios said President Bush has called President Mubarak seeking support on resolving Darfur but has seen little result. Poor Management of AMIS -------------- 6.(C) In addition to the political problems, Natsios and EU officials agreed there are serious management problems with the current AMIS force, including rampant corruption and lack of professionalism. Much of the money given by the US and EU is simply unaccounted for. Natsios urged EU officials to continue calling for the replacement of AMIS Force Commander Major General Luke Aprezi, despite resistance from his home country of Nigeria. Michel said he has raised it with Konare several times, but Aprezi remains in place. Both Natsios and EU officials said their governments are running out of money to continue funding AMIS. The US has about $20 million left, but may find the new Democrat-controlled Congress unwilling to approve further allocations given existing corruption. Solana and Michel said they face similar problems convincing the public that more money for AMIS is money well spent. Natsios said he is looking into the possibility of disbursing the funds through the UN system so that it would face stricter accounting controls. Next Steps -------------- ¶7. (C) Koen Vervaeke, a Solana advisor on Africa policy, suggested regular ministerial meetings on Sudan along the lines of monthly ministerials that take place on issues in Cote d'Ivoire. He said there has been a high level of participation from African ministers as well as the international community, and the meetings have been very useful. Solana said he and his advisors will brainstorm in the next couple of weeks and come to Washington January 3-5 with some proposals for a joint US-EU strategy on Darfur. MCKINLEY . .