C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001502

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016
TAGS: PREL BU RO EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: COMMISSION OFFICIAL: BULGARIA AND ROMANIA LIKELY
TO JOIN EU IN 2007

Classified By: Political Officer Vincent Carver for reason 1.5 (b/d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) European Commission Unit Head for Bulgaria and
Romania Timo Summa told us May 3 that Bulgaria and Romania
will almost certainly join the EU in 2007, as 2008 "is no
longer an option politically." Summa noted that the
Commission likely will recommend safeguards for each country.
The EU has not yet reached consensus, however, regarding
whether the European Council (summit) in June will formally
set 2007 as the accession date or if the EU will delay a
formal decision until September or October to try to maximize
pressure for further reforms in both countries. END SUMMARY

PROBLEMS "UNDER CONTROL" IN BOTH COUNTRIES
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2. (C) Only two weeks before the Commission issues its
report May 16 on Bulgaria and Romania, Summa characterized
both countries' implementation of reforms as "slightly better
than Poland's record" at a similar stage before it joined the
EU in 2004. Sounding much more upbeat than a month ago about
both countries' chances of joining the EU in 2007, Summa said
that both countries' "problems are under control." While
neither has implemented all required reforms, and the "to do"
list is slightly longer for Bulgaria than Romania, there is
consensus among the Commissioners, member states, and the
European Parliament that both countries should be allowed to
join the EU in 2007 rather than 2008. Summa added that,
given continued concerns about the effectiveness of the
judiciary, the EU may insist on JHA safeguards and monitoring
for three years for both countries.

NO EU CONSENSUS ON WHEN TO DECIDE FORMALLY ON 2007 ACCESSION
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3. (C) According to Summa, the EU is divided over whether to
agree formally at the June European Council that both
countries should join in 2007. Another option, apparently
supported by France and Germany, is to "maximize leverage,"
by specifying about six benchmarks individualized for both
countries, mainly regarding the judiciary, on which Sofia and
Bucharest must demonstrate continued commitment over the
coming four months. The Commission could then verify that
both countries had demonstrated such commitment and a Council
formation could then adopt the January 1, 2007 accession
date. Asked what would happen if either country did not
demonstrate such a commitment, Summa initially appeared
nonplused, but then underscored that each of the benchmarks
would be "achievable," and that the EU and the respective
country would find a "reasonable solution" to help guarantee
accession in 2007.


4. (C) Summa noted that nine countries, including France and
Germany, have yet to ratify the accession treaty. This
should not present a major problem, however, as Rehn's
lobbying national parliaments appears to have won assurances
of support for ratification. The Commission expects that
five or six member states will ratify the treaty before the
summer holidays, with the remaining three or four doing so
this autumn.

COMMENT
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5. (C) Summa's remarks confirm what several member state
contacts have told us over the past few weeks. Most EU
officials are convinced that postponing accession to 2008
will buy little good will for continued reform in both
countries. Almost all of our contacts agree that the EU will
never repeat the "mistake" of specifying two possible
accession dates for a candidate country.
MCKINLEY
.