COMMISSION OFFICIAL: BULGARIA AND ROMANIA LIKELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001502 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016 TAGS: PREL BU RO EUN USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: COMMISSION OFFICIAL: BULGARIA AND ROMANIA LIKELY TO JOIN EU IN 2007 Classified By: Political Officer Vincent Carver for reason 1.5 (b/d). SUMMARY - - - - ¶1. (C) European Commission Unit Head for Bulgaria and Romania Timo Summa told us May 3 that Bulgaria and Romania will almost certainly join the EU in 2007, as 2008 "is no longer an option politically." Summa noted that the Commission likely will recommend safeguards for each country. The EU has not yet reached consensus, however, regarding whether the European Council (summit) in June will formally set 2007 as the accession date or if the EU will delay a formal decision until September or October to try to maximize pressure for further reforms in both countries. END SUMMARY PROBLEMS "UNDER CONTROL" IN BOTH COUNTRIES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Only two weeks before the Commission issues its report May 16 on Bulgaria and Romania, Summa characterized both countries' implementation of reforms as "slightly better than Poland's record" at a similar stage before it joined the EU in 2004. Sounding much more upbeat than a month ago about both countries' chances of joining the EU in 2007, Summa said that both countries' "problems are under control." While neither has implemented all required reforms, and the "to do" list is slightly longer for Bulgaria than Romania, there is consensus among the Commissioners, member states, and the European Parliament that both countries should be allowed to join the EU in 2007 rather than 2008. Summa added that, given continued concerns about the effectiveness of the judiciary, the EU may insist on JHA safeguards and monitoring for three years for both countries. NO EU CONSENSUS ON WHEN TO DECIDE FORMALLY ON 2007 ACCESSION - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) According to Summa, the EU is divided over whether to agree formally at the June European Council that both countries should join in 2007. Another option, apparently supported by France and Germany, is to "maximize leverage," by specifying about six benchmarks individualized for both countries, mainly regarding the judiciary, on which Sofia and Bucharest must demonstrate continued commitment over the coming four months. The Commission could then verify that both countries had demonstrated such commitment and a Council formation could then adopt the January 1, 2007 accession date. Asked what would happen if either country did not demonstrate such a commitment, Summa initially appeared nonplused, but then underscored that each of the benchmarks would be "achievable," and that the EU and the respective country would find a "reasonable solution" to help guarantee accession in 2007. ¶4. (C) Summa noted that nine countries, including France and Germany, have yet to ratify the accession treaty. This should not present a major problem, however, as Rehn's lobbying national parliaments appears to have won assurances of support for ratification. The Commission expects that five or six member states will ratify the treaty before the summer holidays, with the remaining three or four doing so this autumn. COMMENT - - - - ¶5. (C) Summa's remarks confirm what several member state contacts have told us over the past few weeks. Most EU officials are convinced that postponing accession to 2008 will buy little good will for continued reform in both countries. Almost all of our contacts agree that the EU will never repeat the "mistake" of specifying two possible accession dates for a candidate country. MCKINLEY .