EU OFFICIALS PREVIEW MAY 24 EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001153

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/RUS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL RS XH EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU OFFICIALS PREVIEW MAY 24 EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT FOR
EUR/RUS DIRECTOR WARLICK

Classified By: POLCOUNS LEE LITZENBERGER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: In meetings March 23 with visiting EUR/RUS
Director Warlick, EU officials said their overall
expectations for the May 24 EU-Russia Summit are low. The
sides will begin discussions/negotiations on a successor
framework document to replace the existing EU-Russia
Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA); hope to sign a
financing agreement to allow for the implementation of a 20
million euro EU assistance program devoted to education,
health, and stabilization in the North Caucasus; formally
sign the visa facilitation agreement reached last fall; and
announce a joint-financed EU/Russia European Studies
Institute in Moscow. Energy cooperation is also expected to
be on the agenda. End Summary.

Starting to Update the PCA
--------------


2. (C) In a meeting on March 23 with EUR/RUS Director Mary
Warlick, Hugues Mingarelli, European Commission Director for
Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, said that his
overall expectations for the May 24 EU-Russia Summit in Sochi
are low. Discussions are expected to be launched at the
Summit, however, on updating the EU's current Partnership
and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) with Russia, which came into
force in December 1997 for an initial duration of ten years,
and will be automatically extended beyond 2007 on an annual
basis - unless either side withdraws from the agreement.
Mingarelli said Russia has indicated it does not intend to
withdraw from the Agreement but wants to negotiate a new
framework text. He expressed concern that the current PCA
had taken two years to negotiate (1992-1994) when Russia was
negotiating from a much weaker position; how much longer, he
wondered, would a new PCA take to negotiate now that Russia
is in a far stronger position than it was a decade ago?
Another barrier to
speedy negotiation, Mingarelli said, is the Russians
inclination to negotiate important issues only at the
political level rather than at the expert/official level that
the EU sees as essential to brokering a new text.


3. (C) Mingarelli said he did not expect much to
substantively change in a new framework agreement; it will
likely be a "PCA Plus" with a new name, according to Gerhard
Lohan, European Commission Head of Unit for Russia who also
attended the meeting. The new agreement is expected to
address implementation of the four 'Common Spaces' -- a
long-term EU/Russia goal agreed upon at the May 2003 St.
Petersburg Summit to create a common economic space; a common
space of freedom, security, and justice; cooperation in the
field of external security; and joint research and education.
Mingarelli and other EU officials indicated that energy
cooperation would also likely be on the agenda for the Summit.

Assistance for North Caucasus
--------------


4. (C) Mingarelli said that the EU also hoped to finalize at
the May Summit a 20 million euro technical assistance program
for reconstruction in the North Caucasus. This program is
intended to "go beyond
humanitarian assistance" (the EU has provided some 170
million euros in such assistance to the region since 1999)
and directly target training and equipment for education and
health, as well as provide SME credit lines for income
generation programs. Mingarelli expressed frustration that
the Russians
have not signed a financing agreement to allow for the
implementation of this assistance program, which had been
developed following extensive consultations with Russian
officials Dmitriy Kozak and Sergey Yastrezhemskiy, among
others. Russian officials had offered various explanations
for their failure to finalize the assistance agreement; the
latest had been that they did not like the political
underpinnings of the documents, Mingarelli said. Mingarelli
commented that the Russians seemed eager for the assistance,
but wanted to be able to distribute the money themselves. He
also noted that total EU assistance to Russia has been
drastically reduced to just 44 million euros which is
concentrated, in addition to the North Caucasus, in such
areas as regulatory convergence, Kaliningrad, and energy
cooperation, with less than 5 million euros going towards
democracy promotion and civil society programs.

5. (C) Mingarelli lamented that it is difficult to have any
substantive discussions with Russia on the North Caucasus and
he believes that Russian policy in the region is not a policy
-- it is a disaster. The Commission has proposed opening a
satellite office (i.e. a branch of the Commission delegation
in Moscow) in Vladikavkaz, but the Russians have not
responded. Mingarelli commented that such an office would
put the EU in a far better position to judge what was
actually happening on the ground. He acknowledged that the
EU's human rights consultations with Russia, which are run by
the Presidency, had provided a useful forum for bilateral
discussions on the North Caucasus and other issues. The
third such meeting, held in March, had focused on three
agenda items: the recently passed NGO law (the EU made clear
that the whole world would be watching its implementation);
developments in the North Caucasus; and, the Russian speaking
minorities in the Baltics (a theme consistently raised by the
Russians). Mingarelli added that the EU had met with 40-50
NGOs the day before the human rights consultations.

Visa Facilitation/Russia's "Philosophy"
--------------

6. (C) EU Council Head of Unit for East Europe and Central
Asia Jukka Leskela and EU Council Russia policy advisor Carl
Hallergard told EUR/RUS Director Warlick on March 24 that
formal signatures on the EU-Russia visa facilitation
agreement are expected to take place at the EU/Russia Summit
in May. Hallergard added that the Russians had proposed a
discussion at the Summit of the "philosophy of Russian
society", which is expected to be an articulation of Putin's
vision of democratic development in Russia. Hallergard and
Leskela also said that an announcement on the creation of a
EU/GOR joint-financed European Studies Institute in Moscow
will also take place at the EU/Russia Summit.


7. (U) EUR/RUS Director Warlick emphasized the importance of
continued close consultation and coordination between the EU
and the U.S. on developments in the North Caucasus, in
Russia's relations with its neighbors and on democracy
concerns in Russia, particularly in the lead up to the July
G-8 Summit.
GRAY
.