ST. LUCIA BY-ELECTION WON BY SUSPECTED DRUG

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000469 SIPDIS SIPDIS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL SNAR KCRM ST XL SUBJECT: ST. LUCIA BY-ELECTION WON BY SUSPECTED DRUG TRAFFICKER REF: 05 BRIDGETOWN 589 Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The by-election held March 13 to fill a vacant seat in the St. Lucia Parliament was won by an individual suspected of drug trafficking. Richard Frederick, who ran for the seat as an independent, is currently under investigation by U.S. and St. Lucia law enforcement authorities for involvement in a trafficking operation that uses St. Lucia as a transshipment point for Colombian cocaine. How much is publicly known in St. Lucia about these allegations against Frederick is unclear at this time. The election result could boost the prospects of the opposition United Workers Party (UWP) in upcoming national elections by demonstrating that a candidate can defeat the better-organized and funded ruling St. Lucia Labor Party. Some observers have taken the fact, however, that the UWP failed to run a candidate in the by-election as an indication of disarray within the party. It remains to be seen whether Richard Frederick will formally join the opposition in Parliament or if the allegations against him will complicate matters in the next election. End summary. -------------- New MP a Suspected Drug Trafficker -------------- ¶2. (C) The winner of St. Lucia's March 13 by-election, independent candidate Richard Frederick, is a suspected drug trafficker who is currently under investigation by U.S. and St. Lucia law enforcement authorities. DEA Bridgetown reports that Frederick is believed to be involved in a trafficking operation that uses St. Lucia as a transshipment point for Colombian cocaine heading for the U.S. and other destinations. According to a DEA source, the St. Lucia police were surprised by Frederick's election victory and believe he managed to mobilize associates that rank among the more undesirable elements of St. Lucian society to help him win the race. A St. Lucia newspaper editor told Poloff that the impoverished constituency won by Frederick is full of "bad boys" who turned out to support their candidate. -------------- How Much is Known about Frederick? -------------- ¶3. (C) During the course of Frederick's brief election campaign, neither the press nor his opponents raised questions about alleged involvement in drug trafficking, indicating that little may be known about this issue outside of law enforcement circles. Only one media outlet, the Cayman Island based Caribbean Net News, included any mention of Frederick's suspected illegal acitivies in its reporting. The St. Lucian press, however, failed to raise the issue at all. Neither did Frederick's main opponent in the election, former Attorney General Victor La Corbiniere, who asked only why Frederick did not address law and order issues such as drugs, illegal weapons, and money laundering during the campaign. One source told Poloff that nothing more than rumors are known about Frederick's supposed illegal activities, which no one dares publish or speak about publicly for fear of a libel suit. -------------- An Election Full of Surprises -------------- ¶4. (U) The March 13 by-election held to fill an empty seat in the St. Lucia Parliament was full of surprises, not the least of which was the victory of an independent candidate. The by-election was precipitated by the January resignation from Parliament of Sarah Flood-Beaubrun, who represented a small third party, the Organization for National Empowerment (ONE). The MP claimed to have resigned to protest unfair treatment of her party, but observers believe she hoped to force Prime Minister Kenny Anthony to call an early national election. The PM declined to take the bait and instead called a by-election to fill the empty seat that represents the central district of Castries, the St. Lucian capital. Anthony's ruling St. Lucia Labor Party (SLP) proceeded to choose as its candidate Attorney General Victor La Corbiniere, who resigned from his position in Government to campaign for the vacant seat. ¶5. (U) Note: Elections are not constitutionally due in St. Lucia until early 2007. However, as a condition of hosting the Cricket World Cup in March 2007, St. Lucia, like other Caribbean nations, agreed to a moratorium on elections during the six months both before and after the sporting event. This means that St. Lucia is likely to hold national elections by September 2006. End note. -------------- Opposition Declines to Contest Election -------------- ¶6. (U) The opposition United Workers Party initially intended to run as its candidate in the by-election former Prime Minister Vaughn Lewis, who dropped out of the race and announced he would exit electoral politics after he was criticized by party members as being a poor candidate. The UWP ultimately chose not to contest the by-election and instead criticized PM Anthony for subjecting St. Lucia to a costly race for a single parliamentary seat rather than call national elections. Observers speculated that the opposition, failing to find a suitable candidate for the by-election, opted to sit out the race rather than lose a seat that had traditionally been a UWP stronghold. Such an outcome would have made the party look particularly weak just as former PM John Compton, who came out of retirement in 2005 to take over the troubled organization, was preparing the opposition for the next elections (reftel). -------------- Independent Enters the Race -------------- ¶7. (U) With just two weeks to go before the March 13 by-election, Richard Frederick announced that he would run as an independent candidate. The media reported that UWP members had pressed party leader John Compton to dub Frederick its official candidate, but Compton declined to do so. After Frederick's independent candidacy became official, there was speculation that he was in reality a stalking horse for the UWP, which could take credit if Frederick won the race but would not look like a loser if he lost to the ruling party's candidate. -------------- Short Campaign and Low Voter Turnout -------------- ¶8. (U) Although the campaign leading up to the by-election was brief, the race dominated the St. Lucia media. This attention failed, however, to invigorate the public and the March 13 poll saw a turnout of only 34 percent of registered voters. According to initial results, independent Richard Frederick won with 1,516 votes (47.7 percent) to 1,267 (39.6 percent) for SLP candidate Victor La Corbiniere. Third party candidate Sarah Flood-Beaubrun, who, in a strange twist, opted to run for the seat she had just resigned from, took 415 votes (13 percent). As a result of the election, the lineup of the 17-seat St. Lucia Parliament has remained unchanged with the SLP holding 14 seats to only 1 for the opposition UWP and 2 independent MPs. -------------- Good or Bad News for the Opposition? -------------- ¶9. (U) The victory of an independent candidate may be a mixed blessing for the opposition. While the UWP did not formally win the race, victorious independent candidate Richard Frederick is a UWP member, a fact that was highlighted during the brief election campaign. Some observers have taken his winning over SLP candidate Victor La Corbiniere as a repudiation of the ruling party. This may buoy the opposition as it prepares for elections later this year. The fact, however, that the UWP failed to field a candidate in a constituency that was traditionally a stronghold of the party has been seen by some as an indication of continued organizational problems that the party will not be able to correct before national elections are held. Such a result would consign the UWP to three straight election defeats. -------------- What Happens Next? -------------- ¶10. (C) Comment: How the election to Parliament of a suspected drug trafficker will play out in St. Lucia remains to be seen, as it is unclear at this time how widely known are the allegations against Richard Frederick. If opposition leader John Compton knew about the charges of criminal activity, this may explain why he refused to anoint Frederick as the UWP's candidate in the by-election. The fact that the press failed to raise serious questions about Frederick suggests, however, that either the allegations against him are not well known or that St. Lucians may prefer to simply look the other way. From a law enforcement perspective, Richard Frederick's elevation to Parliamentarian could make the investigation into his suspected activities more difficult to pursue. Post will continue to report on the various aspects of this situation as they develop. ¶11. (C) An additional element of the St. Lucia by-election is the impact the result may have on the signing of an Article 98 Agreement. Former Attorney General Victor La Corbiniere was the USG's main point of contact on this issue within the Government of St. Lucia. PM Anthony could re-appoint him as AG, but considering the various delays already encountered in negotiating an Article 98 Agreement it is likely that the election shakeup will be a further impediment to concluding an agreement. End comment. KRAMER