ST. LUCIA: RULING PARTY HAS A LEG UP ON A CLOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 001946 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR ST XL SUBJECT: ST. LUCIA: RULING PARTY HAS A LEG UP ON A CLOSE ELECTION REF: A. BRIDGETOWN 469 ¶B. BRIDGETOWN 239 Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: St. Lucia faces a close race in the upcoming national elections, which have not yet been called but are expecteD sometime in December. The opposition party is resting its hopes on the current desire for change apparent among the populace, while the ruling party is basing its campaign on recent accomplishments and more experienced candidates. The results will largely depend on whether the people feel only a party turnover can bring the change they desire. The ruling party seems to have recently regained momentum and will likely win a third-term in office. END SUMMARY. -------------- AN ATMOSPHERE OF CHANGE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Prime Minister of St. Lucia Kenny Anthony will soon call elections, likely for early December, as he is constitutionally mandated to do by the end of the year. Once appearing to be a sure win for the ruling party, the elections now appear to be much closer, leaving some political observers unwilling to predict a victor. Richard Frederick's victory in the March 2006 by-election for the Castries Central seat gave renewed hope to the opposition party and, according to political observers, shook PM Anthony's confidence (ref A). The opposition party, the United Workers Party (UWP),is interpreting this by-election as evidence of the people's desire for change. Guy Mayers, an opposition candidate, stated that the failure of the ruling party to win the March by-election against a last-minute independent candidate illustrates the ruling party's vulnerability. Many compare this atmosphere of change to the elections of 1997, the last time there was a major power shift. ¶3. (C) According to Sir John Compton, leader of the UWP and Prime Minister in 1964-79 and 1982-96, the ruling party has lost all credibility by breaking too many promises over the last nine years. Furthermore, opposition leaders claim possible corruption in the government, citing sudden increases in the standard of living of many MPs following their victory in 1997. -------------- THE PLAYERS -------------- ¶4. (C) Although PM Anthony is still the clear leader of the ruling St. Lucian Labour Pary (SLP),his popularity has waned recently. Because of this trend, he cannot count on his popularity alone and has brought in reinforcements. Dr. Julian Hunte, a former MP, returned from serving as Ambassador to the United Nations to run as an SLP candidate, and Dr. Vaughn Lewis, former Prime Minister and UWP leader, has crossed the aisle to run with the SLP. Also, seven incumbents are running again, including Ministers Philip Pierre, Felix Finisterre, and Damian Greaves, all very popular and seen as effective ministers. ¶5. (C) The jury is still out, however, on the addition of Lewis to the SLP slate. Some believe Lewis provides further credibility to SLP because of his doctorate, his leadership of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) for fourteen years, and his short stint as Prime Minister in ¶1996. Other observers disagree, explaining that St. Lucians shy away from voting for losers. Because of Lewis's loses in 1997 and 2001, many see Lewis as a loser and believe he will hurt the ruling party's chances in the upcoming elections. ¶6. (C) Having served as Prime Minister for almost 30 years, Compton is a legend in St. Lucian politics. The rest of the UWP candidates, though, are young and inexperienced. Stephenson King is seen as one of the more respected leaders of the party, but lost in 1997 and 2001, tarnishing his image. Guy Mayers, another up and coming leader, is a businessman and previous president of the Chamber of Commerce, but is a first-time candidate and new to the public sector. In short, the SLP is seen as having a "much deeper bench" than the opposition, with both its first and second tier of leadership showing greater education and experience than even the first tier of the UWP. However, Compton stated that, even with their inexperience, his party will prevail because the SLP candidates suffer from a loss of credibility due to the corruption and broken promises of the last nine years. ¶7. (C) After his victory in the March by-election, many UWP supporters see Frederick as the new blood of the UWP. As with Lewis, though, Frederick is receiving mixed reviews. Two party leaders confirmed that considerable friction exists behind the scenes between Compton and Frederick. Also, newspaper editor and independent observer Victor Marquis claims that Frederick has a dark cloud over him because of his alleged criminal activities that will hurt his credibility in the election. (NOTE: Marquis confirmed to PolOff Frederick's suspected drug and crime involvement reported in reftel A. Marquis explained that his last live-in girlfriend of two years was previously Frederick's girlfriend. She confided in Marquis everything she knew about Frederick's questionable activities. Marquis said that he has an alarm on his house and fears what will happen to him if Frederick learns what he knows. According to Marquis, what is widely known of Frederick's criminal behavior is not half of what there is to know. END NOTE.) ¶8. (C) Another journalist, Timothy Poleon, countered Marquis' argument by suggesting that Frederick's alleged crime connections will actually help him in the election. According to Poleon, people are asking why the Prime Minister does not arrest Frederick if the allegations against him are true? Poleon stated that lack of government action against Frederick is convincing the populace that the allegations are simply spin and have no basis. -------------- AN ELECTION WON BY SEATS -------------- ¶9. (C) When analyzing individual seats, a ruling party victory looks likely. Most observers, including independent and opposition figures, pinpoint five seats the SLP is likely to win: Vieux Fort South (PM Anthony's district),Vieux Fort North, Laborie, Dennery South, and Castries East. In addition to these five seats, popular incumbents are running in another four districts, giving the SLP a good chance to win at least nine of 17 seats. The only seat currently going to the UWP with confidence is Compton's district, Micoud North. -------------- SIGNS TO WATCH FOR -------------- ¶11. (SBU) In campaigning, SLP leaders have sought to parade the current government's successes during its nine-year tenure, particularly those in infrastructure development. Their goal is to remind voters of the increased electricity production and distribution throughout the island, the newly-built prison, the creation of universal health care and universal secondary education, and the expansion of telecommunications, roads, and water supply. SLP leaders will also point out that the opposition has yet to provide solutions to areas where they claim change is needed: crime and the economy. Much of the election will rest on the ability of the SLP to shore up its credibility, while the UWP attempts to rip it down. This battle will play a significant role in the elections. ¶12. (C) Another important factor is campaign financing. Because of the relatively small size of Saint Lucia's economy, campaign contributions go a long way, particularly when politicians pass the funds directly to members of the electorate (ref B). For example, party t-shirts wrapped around money are common at campaign rallies, as are politicians buying groceries or sponsoring house repairs. In private conversations with PolOff, various opposition figures, including Compton, emphasized that they are unsure how they will counter the ruling party's ability to obtain and use campaign funds. ¶13. (SBU) The most flashy sign of support is attendance at campaign rallies. These rallies essentially play out like parties -- the more fun the party and more popular the entertainers, the larger the crowd. Larger crowds mean more people wearing t-shirts in the sponsoring party's color, as well as more goodies, such as flags and banners, handed out and popping up in shop windows and automobiles. If successful, this can lead to a band wagon mentality where people begin supporting the "more popular" party. Early in the campaign, rallies put on by either party were equally well attended. However, according to observers, SLP red is starting to appear in more windows and on more cars than UWP yellow, as attendance at SLP rallies continues to increase. ¶14. (C) Finally, Marquis projected that Compton will bow out of the race if he thinks his party will lose the elections. According to Marquis, Compton will not let himself be a standing opposition MP because the persecution he would face from the ruling party would damage his reputation and legacy. Although Compton did not directly confirm this, he emphasized his desire for a strong hold on power by stating he would not be happy with anything less than 12 seats. According to Compton, SLP supporters would be in the streets rallying against him if he wins a narrow majority. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶15. (C) Although there are many who are ready for change in St. Lucia, particularly with the worsening crime and economic situations, the momentum is not yet strong enough to force the SLP out of office. The UWP cannot match the breadth of experience found in the SLP camp. The strongest UWP figure is its leader Compton; he is the glue holding the party together. Currently, there are no other obvious candidates to lead the UWP which is why the party asked Compton to come out of retirement. However, Compton is a polarizing figure. As Prime Minister, Compton often awarded party supporters with appointments and scholarships, while ostracizing SLP supporters. Because of this, Compton is despised by his opponents as much as he is revered by his supporters. ¶16. (C) One of the most interesting characters to come out of this election is Frederick, who is quickly positioning himself as a future UWP leader. Frederick is popular, charismatic, wealthy, has had a successful career as a police officer and lawyer, and, most importantly, is viewed as politically powerful because of his surprising victory in the March by-election. His possible criminal ties, however, make his rise to power worrisome. It is unlikely that Frederick will lose his seat against SLP's Lewis, and another victory in his district in such a short time will solidy his power in the UWP, regardless of the general outcome of the elections. ¶17. (C) How this election will affect U.S. interests in international relations, crime, and the economy in St. Lucia will be reported in septel. OURISMAN