BARBADOS: EARLY ELECTIONS RUMORED

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 001879 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON BB XL SUBJECT: BARBADOS: EARLY ELECTIONS RUMORED REF: BRIDGETOWN 1708 Classified By: DCM MARY ELLEN T. GILROY FOR REASONS 1.4 (a) AND (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Although Barbados' next parliamentary election is not constitutionally due until 2008, rumors are swirling in the media and among the political commentariat that Prime Minister Owen Arthur is considering calling early elections, perhaps even this fall. If he does decide to call early elections, Prime Minister Arthur will be well positioned to win a fourth term, an unprecedented feat in post-independence Barbados politics. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Barbados was among the 2007 Cricket World Cup (CWC) host countries that pledged to focus all energies on CWC preparations and hold no elections or other large events before the CWC matches in March and April of 2007. It is likely that St. Lucia will hold elections this fall, and Barbados may also break the pledge and follow suit. Media and embassy contacts have speculated in recent weeks that Prime Minister Arthur may call early elections to capitalize on the favorable opinion of Barbadian voters toward him and his government (reftel). ¶3. (U) Barbados' two major parties, the ruling Barbados Labor Party (BLP) and the opposition Democratic Labor Party (DLP), are leaving nothing to chance. Since early September, they have both appeared to be in full campaign mode. The airwaves and newsprint have been filled with the parties' messages, attacks, and counterattacks on the handful of issues that a recent poll showed to be of key concern to the voters: cost of living, economy, unemployment, crime, and housing. When the DLP launched a series of townhall-style constituency meetings in early September, the BLP quickly followed with its own series of "conversations with the nation." ¶4. (U) Both parties have nearly completed their slates of candidates for the next election. The DLP has also beefed up its campaign staff with political strategists, including the prominent political consultant and commentator Hartley Henry, who has devoted a number of his weekly newspaper columns to skewering the Arthur government on a variety of issues. The BLP, on the other hand, has sought to use every advantage of being the party in government by announcing new government construction projects, including housing for the poor and roads. The BLP is also shoring up its image as the party with a solid plan for Barbados' future by launching a parliamentary debate on its National Strategic Plan. ¶5. (C) Comment: Some of those trying to read the political tea leaves have speculated that Prime Minister Arthur could make the election announcement as early as October 29, when he addresses the BLP's annual conference. Others, however, believe that he will wait until after the holidays and announce the elections for late January. Despite the CWC-related pledge, early elections would certainly make sense from Prime Minister Arthur's perspective. Leading his closest oppoinent by 20 points in recent polling, Arthur is by far the most popular politician in Barbados. Naturally, he may therefore prefer to fight the next election at the height of his popularity. He may also want an early vote to deny the DLP time to convince more voters that the party has regrouped and is ready and fit to govern. Finally, with some of the country's economic fundamentals weakening, Prime Minister Arthur may want to seek an early reelection before the necessary economic belt-tightening, which will likely come after the CWC. End Comment. KRAMER