BIOFUELS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN: UNCLASS/SBU

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 BRIDGETOWN 001852 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS WHA/EPSC FOR FAITH CORNEILLE AND EB/ESC/IEC FOR JEFF IZZO E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENRG EAGR ETRO EAID EPET EINV PGOV PREL BB XK, XL, XM SUBJECT: BIOFUELS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN: UNCLASS/SBU VERSION REF: A. STATE 164558 ¶B. BRIDGETOWN 1801 ¶C. BRIDGETOWN 785 ¶D. BRIDGETOWN 533 ¶E. BRIDGETOWN 178 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) Discussions with eastern Caribbean Energy Ministries in the region revealed a strong interest in alternatives to fossil fuels. Like the countries themselves, the proposed alternatives are very diverse, ranging from ethanol and geothermal, to solar and wind, and even to waste conversion. Most of the countries in the region have already begun implementation, or at the very least, are making plans do so. While these alternatives have great potential for domestic consumption, the potential for export of biofuels is greatest in Barbados and St. Kitts and Nevis, where ethanol production is a serious focus. However, significant challenges to public and private investment in this sector remain, such as limited resources and challenging geographies. The recent reduction of oil prices in the region and the expected benefits of Petrocaribe, have also made the perceived need for alternative energy resources less immediate. End Summary. -------------- -------------- DIVERSE FACES OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) The avenues of alternative energy being explored in the eastern Caribbean are as diverse as the islands themselves. In Dominica, plentiful running water produces 40% of the island,s electricity, which the government hopes to export to the neighboring islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe. Hydroelectric power is also producing close to 20% of St. Vincent's power. St. Lucia, Dominica, and St. Kitts and Nevis are all exploring the feasibility of geothermal energy with the support of the French Government and the Organization of American States (OAS). The Government of Antigua and Barbuda is looking to fill 40% of its energy needs from renewable sources, specifically a waste-to-energy plan in the short term, followed by a longer-term ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) program. Grenada is also eyeing the possibility of converting agricultural waste to biomass energy and aggressively promotes solar water heaters through public awareness �A;campaigns and tax rebates. Barbados and St. Kitts appear to be the only countries focused more on ethanol due to their histories and experience with sugar production. Both countries developed plans, which they hope to present to potential investors and financial institutions. -------------- BARBADOS -------------- ¶I. State of Sugar Industry -------------- ¶3. (SBU) According to Barbados government statistics, it cost US$1,181 in 2004 to produce one ton of export-ready raw sugar in Barbados. Given the US$683 average export price (all exports went to the European Union),Barbados loses US$498 on every ton of sugar it exports. The country exported 34,400 tons of sugar in 2004 for a total loss of US$17,136,360 or nearly US$35,000 for each of the roughly 500 sugar workers. The government-owned and managed Barbados Agricultural Management Company (BAMC) runs the island's sugar factories and handles all exports of the commodity. Explaining the high production cost, the Minister of Agriculture, Erskine Griffith, told post that Barbados' yield ratio of 21 tons of sugar per acre of sugar cane is, "the lowest of any sugar producing nation," whereas "producers in Brazil get up to 80 tons per acre." ¶4. (SBU) There is no longer any economic reason for Barbados to continue producing sugar, but an historic emotional attachment to the crop causes the government to keep the industry alive at considerable taxpayer expense. Instead of cutting their losses, Barbados continues cutting cane. But now there is an additional objective: In January of 2006, the Barbadian Government announced a US$150 million government financed plan to construct a multipurpose facility which would produce 30 megawatts of electricity, 14 million BRIDGETOWN 00001852 002 OF 006 litres of ethanol, and 15,000 tons of specialty sugar for the local and export markets. BAMC head Carl Simpson spoke positively of the plan in several public fora, citing a feasibility study showing ethanol production to be a viable option for Barbados. However, concrete information on the economics of this new plan has been difficult to obtain. II. Fuel Distribution -------------- ¶5. (U) The latest statistics show that Barbados produced about 1,000 bbl of oil per day and 29.17 million cubic meters of natural gas. Consumption is estimated at 110,000 tons of unleaded gas; 87,000 tons of diesel; 182,000 tons of fuel oil for electricity generation; 11.8 million cubic meters of natural gas; and 1,800 tons of jet fuel. The most recent data on transportation show that there are approximately 54,000 automobiles in the country. Barbados has some of the lowest electricity rates in the Caribbean. Electricity consumption by sector was 127 million kWh for hotels; 194 million kWh for commercial; 121 million kWh for government; 275 million kWh for domestic; 54 million kWh for industrial; and 58 million kWh for other, unspecified consumption. Barbados Light and Power is state-owned and the only electrical utility company on the island. There are three power stations run by steam, gas turbines, and diesel. The current renewable energy portfolio for Barbados consists of a 10 MW wind farm at Lamberts, St. Lucy, and 38,000 residential and commercial solar hot water heaters. III. Investment Climate -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In general, the investment climate is very good in Barbados for the ethanol biofuel market. Although there is no current ethanol production, consumption or exports, the Minister of Energy of Barbados has made it clear that the government fully supports the production of alternative energy and will do what is necessary to turn talk into action, as indicated by the allocation of over US$150 million for a new sugar processing facility. The government has already begun testing vehicles to run on gasoline with a 10 per cent ethanol mix and hopes to have 50 government vehicles on the road next year that run on this ethanol mix. Barbados has adequate port facilities and land routes for export and has plans to build storage tanks for ethanol. The road networks, although congested during the school year and tourist season, are well-developed and construction is underway for further road network improvements. ¶7. (SBU) According to Energy Ministry officials, there would be no difficulty transporting and blending ethanol with gasoline. However, the current stumbling block may be financing due to the current shortage of ethanol, increased demand, and high price. In addition, several costly adjustments would need to be made along the retail supply chain. ¶8. (SBU) There may also be difficulties associated with production volume for export to larger countries as well as the logistics of getting feedstock to other islands, which is very expensive. The volume of cane is not large enough in many island countries to benefit from the economies of scale. A month ago, Acting Minister of Agriculture, Senator Tyrone Barker, stated publicly that the Government of Barbados needs at least 31,000 acres of land accessible for the cultivation of sugar cane to guarantee raw material availability for a 25-30 year period. The will to invest in technology is being manifested in the move to restructure the Barbados Agricultural Management Company (BAMC) to manage industrial production of raw sugar, ethanol, bagasse, molasses and special and refined sugars. Still, bankers may not yet be willing to take the risk of investing in alternative energy development, citing underdeveloped capital markets and problems of liquidity as major obstacles. In order to reduce these risks, a regulatory environment is needed that is conducive to alternative investment and financial instruments, based on regional harmonization. IV. Regulatory Structure -------------- ¶9. (U) Barbados allows non-utility power generation and permits independent power producers to sell power to the national grid. In addition, utilities are required to purchase from independent power producers, facilitate grid inter-connections and participate in independent review BRIDGETOWN 00001852 003 OF 006 panels to evaluate renewable energy projects. There are no laws or regulations concerning local power production and sales. However, Barbados Light and Power is a monopolistic state-owned enterprise which prevents outside companies from importing fuel unless there is a specific agreement between the government and the importing company. Environmental regulations for biofuel refineries consist of a requirement for environmental impact assessments, much like those in the United States, which can take six months to a year to complete. ¶10. (SBU) There is relative ease of access and ownership of land by foreign companies and individuals. A proposal was made earlier this year by the Acting Agriculture Minister for a legislative mandate to identify a minimum number of land acres, under which land would be solely designated for agricultural activities. Other than the Agriculture Ministry,s proposal, there are no current obstacles to acquire title to land and the process is the same as land acquisition by Barbadian citizens. (Note: Recent op-ed pieces in the local press, however, demonstrate public unease with this policy or lack thereof. Continued resistance and pressure by the general public seem to be surfacing (having more to do with the expansion of the tourism industry) and may influence change in land ownership laws as many feel the island is running out of land for local people and their future generations. End Note.) -------------- ST. KITTS/NEVIS -------------- ¶I. State of Sugar Industry -------------- ¶11. (SBU) St. Kitts and Nevis ceased centuries of sugar production at the end of the 2005 harvest. The state sugar company, St. Kitts and Nevis Sugar Manufacturing Corporation (SSMC),has lost money every year since at least 1985. In 2004, the cost of debt service alone was more than the total revenue of the company. The SSMC now has a debt of over US$112 million, around US$2500 for every person in St. Kitts and Nevis, and the sugar industry has contributed to the public debt at a rate of approximately 4% of GDP per year. If the SSMC were a private company, it would have gone bankrupt years ago. The impending loss of European Union trade preferences virtually eliminated any hope of the sugar industry's comeback. II. Fuel Distribution -------------- ¶12. (U) Rising oil prices and supply problems are the biggest energy challenges for St. Kitts and Nevis. The country is totally dependent on imported petroleum for electricity generation. The high maintenance requirements and poor reliability of small diesel generation results in electricity outages and produces negative environmental impacts. According to the latest figures acquired by post, St. Kitts consumes approximately 800 bbl of oil per day. Approximately 130 million kWh hours are produced, of which 120 million kWh is consumed. Some 7.8 to 8.5 million gallons per annum of diesel are used in electricity production. At present, the Nevis Electricity Company, Ltd. (NEVLEC) is the only electrical utility in the country. ¶13. (U) There is not yet any ethanol/biofuels production in St. Kitts and Nevis. Embassy Bridgetown recently sponsored two Science Fellows to conduct research on ethanol potential in St. Kitts and Nevis. They suggest that the present volume of sugar cane lands could produce about 7 million gallons per annum of ethanol at most. However, production of about 4 million gallons per year is more likely, using historical yields from St. Kitts Sugar Manufacturing Corporation (SSMC). Imported feedstock, such as molasses, high-test molasses (sugar syrup),or grains could be imported to supplement the locally grown sugar cane feedstock and produce 10 million gallons per year through a full fermentation plant. This production could be supplemented by an ethanol dehydration plant that would process Brazilian hydrous (95%) alcohol into motor fuel grade ethanol (99.5% ) which has the potential to produce 20-30 million gallons a year, but too much dependency on feedstock would mean higher commodity risk. Other energy efficiency alternatives currently being explored consist of improvements to the electric utility system; commercial and household energy conservation; use of energy efficient appliances and lighting; implementation of environmental BRIDGETOWN 00001852 004 OF 006 standards and regulations; and solar water heating. III. Investment Climate -------------- ¶14. (U) Diversification of the sugar to produce biofuels or other sugar cane-based industrial products is possible due to existing infrastructure and equipment, but the planning will require the crafting of a long-term strategic plan that will make efficient use of the little available cane acreage as well as near-obsolete technology. The government of St. Kitts and Nevis is currently looking at proposals for ethanol production from American and Norwegian companies. Prime Minister Denzil Douglas told the press that Global Green, a Norwegian company, Transmediair Incorporated from the United States, and Caribbean Energy Resources of Florida have each submitted proposals to the Sugar Transition Office. Another company, Alboomberg International, has representatives currently visiting St. Kitts and Nevis, and has submitted a proposal for financing. Douglas told reporters his government gave a specific time period for proposal submissions and that the Sugar Transition Management Team, the Department of Legal Affairs, and the Ministry of Finance would work together to make a final determination as to which company would most effectively use the assets the industry already has in place. ¶15. (U) The most significant barrier to ethanol use is acreage volume of cane. Last month in Trinidad, St. Kitts Energy Minister Earl Martin told U.S. Department of Energy A/S Harbert that the country must seriously evaluate how practical ethanol production can be considering the availability of land, which only totals 68 square miles, of which there are only 8,000 usable acres for production. There are no apparent barriers with regard to adequacy of port facilities or land routes for export. The port facilities are adequate to import ethanol and feedstocks for ethanol, using the SSMC tanks and sugar warehouse. The same tanker trucks moving petroleum would handle ethanol without any major problems. The marine fleet could use biodiesel and gasoline engines with 10 per cent ethanol blends, though there have been some problems with old boat engines using ethanol as it can dissolve some old seals and tank liners. However, potential problems associated with the transition to ethanol-blended gasoline could be easily overcome by private oil companies, which have the necessary experience with maintenance, monitoring and parts replacement. Flex-fuel cars are available from most U.S. and Brazilian automobile manufacturers, and the St. Kitts and Nevis Sustainable Energy Plan, drafted in collaboration with the Global Sustainable Energy Island Initiative (GSEII),aims to import hybrid, E85, and other alternative energy vehicles in the near future. IV. Regulatory Structure -------------- ¶16. (U) At present, state-run utilities control generation, transmission and distribution of electricity as well as prices, and there is limited or no opportunity for private power generation. There is no legislation to mandate any ethanol blends or flex-fuel automobiles. There are also no environmental regulations on bio-refineries. The Global Sustainable Energy Island Initiative (GSEII) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) are conducting a financial and economic analysis of sugar cane on the island for ethanol use and biomass for power and heat generation, which will include the administrative and legal requirements and/or barriers to developing alternative biofuels. -------------- ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA -------------- ¶I. State of Sugar Industry -------------- ¶17. (U) There has been no competitive sugar industry in Antigua and Barbuda for over 46 years. During the 1960s, the economy of Antigua moved away from agriculture to primarily tourism, which continues to be the dominant activity, accounting for more than half of GDP. Agricultural activity is now largely for subsistence farming and for sales in the domestic market, but production is constrained by a limited water supply and a labor shortage stemming from the lure of higher wages in tourism and construction work. BRIDGETOWN 00001852 005 OF 006 II. Fuel Distribution -------------- ¶18. (SBU) Electricity demand is mostly supplied with fossil fuel-fired power stations. Reciprocating diesel engines account for 70% of the installed capacity in Antigua. A dual-purpose electricity and water production steam plant accounts for the remaining 30% of installed electricity generation capacity. Close to 20% of households use coal for cooking. The quality and delivery of electricity supplied by the Antigua Public Utilities Authority (APUA) has deteriorated considerably in recent years. The APUA Electricity Division is subject to frequent power outages because of breakdowns of its power generation plants. APUA,s financial situation is very weak, making upgrades almost impossible, which may be due to inefficient internal management and alleged corruption. III: Non-Ethanol Alternatives -------------- ¶19. (U) Up until early 1970, renewable energy played a significant role in Antigua and Barbuda. Antigua,s topography and year-round sunshine were very conducive to wind power and solar energy. Efforts to exploit wind energy in the 1980s failed, however, due to mechanical and control problems. Since then, solar water heaters have been the most successful renewable energy program in Antigua and Barbuda, due to credit facilities initially offered by the main suppliers of solar water heaters and tax concessions by the government. It is estimated that there are 14,000 solar water heaters in Antigua. More recently, in November of last year, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Environment Division of Antigua and Barbuda proposed a one-year plan to fill 40% of Antigua and Barbuda energy needs from renewable sources. The plan is to convert 250 tons of daily waste into energy, in the short term, and harness power from the surrounding sea by ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC). To date, post is unaware whether Antigua and Barbuda has begun implementing this plan. IV: Obstacles to Alternative Energy -------------- ¶20. (SBU) The main obstacles to renewable energy exploration appear to be awareness and finance. Low-cost financing is necessary but not always available for successful development of further renewable projects. Renewable power has to be commercially competitive with the traditional petroleum-based electricity supply, which is currently a challenge due to a lack of infrastructure and poor internal management, as well as the perceived immediate and tangible benefits of Petrocaribe. In addition, there is an ongoing problem with land registration, land use, and land ownership and leasing despite government efforts to offer tax incentives. This problem has discouraged foreign investors from coming to Antigua and, in some cases, caused them to leave. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶21. (SBU) From wind and solar to geothermal and ethanol, the eastern Caribbean countries are serious candidates for sustainable alternative energy investment. In terms of alternative energy export potential, Barbados and St. Kitts are most likely the best candidates, particularly with ethanol production. Both countries have histories, experiences, and remaining infrastructure related to sugar cane production. However, the small volume of cane acreage in each country is one of the biggest challenges. Another challenge is trade-related. Both countries want reassurance that 1) duty-free market access will continue for many years in the future, and 2) the U.S. will not erode Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) preferences by cutting tariffs on Brazilian ethanol. With the CBI possibly expiring in 2007, however, Barbados and St. Kitts are reluctant to stake their future now on U.S. market access. ¶22. (SBU) The overwhelming dependency on diesel fuel in the region, some of which carries the Petrocaribe label, threatens the economic well-being of the region,s citizens, as well as their choices. At the very least, domestic supply and consumption of alternative energy may provide these countries with the breathing space needed to pay down their national debts and open new opportunities for cooperation with the United States. BRIDGETOWN 00001852 006 OF 006 KRAMER