FORMER PM DZURINDA SAYS HZDS HAS NOWHERE TO GO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000980

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV LO
SUBJECT: FORMER PM DZURINDA SAYS HZDS HAS NOWHERE TO GO


Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Mikulas Dzurinda, former PM and leader of the
opposition Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU),
called the KDH a mess; questioned HZDS' suitability as a
future partner; and said he has documents to prove the
corruption of SNS leader Jan Slota during a December 19
luncheon with the Ambassador. End summary.

PARTY POLITICS
--------------

2. (C) Dzurinda believes PM Robert Fico has behaved quite
cleverly. The recently adopted budget for 2007 left little
for the Opposition to attack, since Fico by and large adopted
Dzurinda,s economic program. Slovakia will continue to have
strong economic growth due to latent and continuing FDI and
strong EU funds in the next few years.


3. (C) SDKU's former coalition partner, the opposition
Christian Democratic Movement (KDH),is still a mess. Of the
potential future leaders, Carnogursky doesn't know who he is
or what he wants to be, Hrusovsky is weak, Palko is
humorless, and Lipsic is too arrogant. None would be able to
lead KDH from the woods. Dzurinda mused about the Mayor of
Trnava, Stephan Bosnak, but thought he may not want the job.
KDH hasn,t decided whether their party Congress will be in
spring or fall. Durkovsky (Bratislava) and Knapik (Kosice)
won their Mayoral races not because of KDH's strength but
because of SDKU's organization. (Comment. The two candidates
ran as nominees of right-wing coalitions including both KDH
and SDKU, but are most closely associated with KDH. End
comment.)


4. (C) Dzurinda said the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia
(HZDS) has become less palatable as a future coalition
partner due to the recent behavior of its leader, former PM
Vladimir Meciar. Former SDKU MinFinance Ivan Miklos recently
commented to Dzurinda how increasingly difficult it would be
for SDKU to cooperate with the HZDS Meciar is showing the
public. (Comment. After June elections the only right-wing
coalition that could hold a majority of seats in the Slovak
Parliament would have had to include SDKU, KDH, the Party of
the Hungarian Coalition (SMK) and HZDS. The main obstacle to
this coalition was KDH,s principled refusal to work with
HZDS under Meciar. End comment.)


5. (C) Meciar will continue to play political games to
bedevil Fico. Dzurinda believes Meciar only wants his
immunity preserved and some recognition from the
international community. (Comment. Ambassador replied that
we would not give Meciar that, and that he was hardly making
a better case for himself recently. End comment.) Dzurinda
speculated that in a HZDS without Meciar MP Viliam Viteska
would not make a good leader, but that MP Tibor Mikus is
strong and not tainted by shady privatizations. Meciar can't
leave the current coalition given KDH's continued divisions
and refusal to work with HZDS in a coalition. If Meciar did
leave the coalition, Dzurinda would block any attempt by Fico
to have early elections since Smer's popularity is currently
so strong. Although early elections might deprive both KDH
and HZDS the five percent threshold of votes required to get
into the next Parliament, those losses would not necessarily
be to the advantage of the other right-oriented opposition
parties. (Comment. Early elections would require the consent
of 90 of Slovakia's 150 MPs. The current ruling coalition
holds 85 seats. End comment.)


6. (C) Dzurinda was surprised but not shocked by Slovak
National Party (SNS) leader Jan Slota's loss in the Zilina
mayoral race. SDKU candidate Ivan Harman brilliantly employed
the get-out-the-vote forces of a unified NGO community,
insuring not only mayoral success but success in the city
parliament, where many of the newly elected members are from
the NGO community.

SLOVAK INFORMATION SERVICE
--------------

7. (C) Dzurinda sent his personal emissary, Pavol Prokopovic,
former Transport Minister and current head of the
Parliamentary committee with jurisdiction over the Slovak
Information Service (SIS),to warn SIS Director Magala about
taking any HZDS people into the SIS. Dzurinda believes
Magala is free from Russian influence and is honest, but that
he is also immensely loyal to PM Fico. Dzurinda doubts Magala
would take the political risk of spying on HZDS - as several
high-ranking HZDS members have publicly alleged - or the
opposition. Dzurinda did, however, suggest that any hint of
illegal activities against political partners/opponents would
bring the SIS in for a broad investigation.

CORRUPTION
--------------

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8. (C) Dzurinda claimed to "have in my hands information,
written information, about specific corruption with Slota.
We did not release it before the (mayoral) election because
we did not want to be accused of negative campaigning. But
the election is over."


9. (C) The Ambassador suggested that nobody has grabbed the
anticorruption theme like KDH used to, and that SDKU should
do so in the interest of good governance. Dzurinda said that
Fico, while not personally corrupt, had a lot of corrupt
people around him. Dzurinda claimed to have information that
Kalinak and Pociatek had a secret meeting with Ivan Lexa
Junior and Jozef Brhel, a former State Secretary at the
Economy Ministry under Meciar and sponsor of SMER, to set up
a company that would be involved in public tenders for
computers going to the Finance and Interior Ministries.
Juraj Siroky is now the owner of one of the few
non-blacklisted construction firms, Vahostav, and would be
getting all kinds of Transport ministry contracts.


10. (C) Dzurinda also noted that Smer's sponsors are
restless, with a split between the Siroky wing and IntMin
Robert Kalinak's group. "I have information that Kalinak and
Fico no longer have coffee together. Did you notice that it
was Caplovic and not Kalinak who filled in for PM questions
in Fico,s absence? I always used my most loyal minister,
Miklos, for this event." (Comment. Fico and Kalinak seemed
on good terms, even chummy, at last week,s hockey game with
the Ambassador. End comment.) Dzurinda noted that Fico
relies almost exclusively on Madaric, Magala, and Glendova in
making his decisions.

TRANSPETROL
--------------

11. (C) Ambassador noted that little progress is being made
by the GOS on Transpetrol, and the Government seemed
helpless. Dzurinda offered his assistance, but Ambassador
observed it was best to keep the issue non-partisan, as we
are still suggesting alternatives.

A NEW SDKU NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT IN 2009?
--------------

12. (C) Dzurinda said he would have a heart to heart with
former FM Eduard Kukan in the new year. Kukan's interest in
public affairs seems to be fading and Dzurinda wants to make
it seem like it is Kukan's idea not to run for President
again in 2009. MP Iveta Radicova, SDKU,s most prominent
rising star, has the fire in the belly for the job and could
win according to Dzurinda . Ambassador recounted that when he
suggested to Radicova that as mayor of Bratislava she would
meet all the visiting Presidents, Radicova responded that she
would prefer to meet them as an equal. "That's my Iveta,"
quipped Dzurinda.


DZURINDA,S HEALTH
--------------

13. (SBU) Dzurinda's leg, injured in a skiing accident last
winter, is gradually getting better. He is now jogging for
50 minutes at a time, but is still in considerable pain. He
will limit his skiing this year to cross-country. His goal
is to run in the Boston Marathon in 2008.
VALLEE