AMBASSADOR'S DECEMBER 13 MEETING WITH PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000966 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2016 TAGS: PREL POLG ECON ENRG AF LO SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S DECEMBER 13 MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER FICO Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) . ¶1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Fico told the Ambassador December 13 that: --he will travel to Afghanistan in January and announce that Slovak troops will move to Kandahar, --he is in firm control of the government; and coalition partners Meciar and Slota are just sideshows, and --he is determined to keep the economy strong, and impending changes to the labor code will not hurt investors. Fico is a consummate politician who many times in the past promised us what we wanted to hear on foreign policy issues and then not followed through. On the other hand, he has also told the UK Ambassador that she would be very happy with the final decision on Kandahar, and so we have some new optimism that Slovakia will respond favorably to the NATO request. Fico did nothing to dampen the image that he runs a "one-man government," but given his coalition partners, that may not be a bad thing. End summary. Strong on the Budget, Strong in the Polls -------------- ¶2. (C) At an hour-long, one-on-one meeting with the Ambassador December 13, Prime Minister Robert Fico was clearly in a good mood after his budget had passed along party lines earlier in the week. He noted that the opposition was completely baffled over how to oppose the budget since it kept Slovakia on track for the Euro, did not present any dramatic changes, and promised a number of goodies consistent with his vision of a social democratic state. He took pains to note how the people he met on the campaign trail during the run-up to the mayoral elections understood that he could not do all he promised but the fact that he was doing something engendered considerable goodwill. He specifically singled out the Christmas bonus to pensioners as something entire families were talking about at this special time of year. He let the Ambassador know that Friday poll releases will show Smer holding strong with preference ratings above 40%. Health, Future Plans -------------- ¶3. (C) Fico stated clearly that he would not be a candidate for PM in 2010. He is tired after 16 years in politics and was sure he could find something to do. He said, "You know I am a criminal lawyer, and there are a lot of criminals in Slovakia." By making this clear, there is no challenge to ;his leadership in the party, unlike the problems within KDH and, he believes, within SDKU. "I don't want to end my career like Dzurinda." On his health, he noted that his swings in blood pressure continue but his condition is much improved because he insists on working out daily, pointing out soccer, hockey and swimming activities in the last three days. (Comment: Fico is a political animal. We cannot take for granted that he would refuse to run again. End comment.) Meciar and His Friends of Ill Repute -------------- - ¶4. (C) The Ambassador asked about HZDS leader Vladimir Meciar and reports of intra-coalition tensions. The PM shrugged, and responded that Meciar only wants parliamentary immunity and money, noting that this was now a family affair as Meciar,s son was returning to Slovakia to "build a big house on a big plot like Electra (Meciar,s own opulent residence)." Regarding Meciar's continued focus on people and things that remind all of his murky past, Fico noted that Meciar was taking care of friends. Meciar had even tried to convince Fico to apologize on behalf of Slovakia to former SIS-boss Ivan Lexa (notorious for blatant misuse of his office in the 1990s) in exchange for getting Lexa to drop his suit in front of the European Court of Human Rights. Fico refused. ¶5. (C) Fico believes Meciar has no other option to stay in the government. Fico said he will continue to tolerate Meciar,s games because he believes they don,t undermine his own essential control of the government. Fico noted that the debate over Rezes, Urban, and even Lexa (Meciar's corrupt cronies for whom he has obtained positions in government or on boards of government-controlled companies) were sideshows while Fico,s ministers dominate essential governmental functions. KDH is so split that Meciar has no option to go with Dzurinda, and if they did, KDH and HZDS would both be decimated in early elections. Slovak National Party (SNS) leader Jan Slota is "wealthy beyond imagination" and only cares about financial matters, so he will continue to provide coalition stability. He lost the Zilina election because he was napping and didn,t pay attention to organizing. Afghanistan -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador delivered a tough message on Afghanistan. He said that Fico,s concept of deployment of Slovak forces only when there was no danger made a mockery out of the alliance, and that NATO should not have to wait six months for a response to a redeployment request. He told Fico that our patience had run out, and that he had prepared a critical speech for Thursday's public conference on NATO and Global Security, which we would rather modify if Fico could show us he was coming around to our position. The Ambassador also noted that President Gasporovic had asked that the Ambassador deliver the information that the president concurred with our message of needing to meet one,s obligations within NATO. The Ambassador pointed out that all the government's talk about needing more force protection was a red herring because the Dutch, Canadians, and British had all offered protection equal to that given to their own troops. He further argued that what Afghanistan needed was more roads, precisely the thing Slovak troops were trained and equipped to provide. ¶7. (C) Fico responded that just as important as NATO commitments were the sentiments of Slovak voters. The Ambassador answered that at some point Fico needed to be more of a statesman and less of a poll reader. ¶8. (C) Smiling, Fico responded that Slovakia would indeed move the engineers to Kandahar, but the announcement would follow a trip to Kandahar so that he could personally see the situation on the ground. He invited the Ambassador to accompany him. The trip would be in late January and the announcement would be either in Kandahar or upon return to Slovakia. (Note: Obviously the trip is about political optics since he was clear he has made his decision). Possible Trip to the U.S. -------------- ¶9. (C) Fico said he was inclined to accept the US Chamber of Commerce's invitation to speak to the Chamber in Washington in January. The Ambassador noted that with such short notice it would be difficult to arrange high level USG meetings, but we would do our best. (Note: The local AmCham told us the Chamber invitation was not pegged to a specific date. The desire for January seems to have been the PM's.) Belarus -------------- ¶10. (C) The Ambassador told Fico that we had urged the Slovak NGO Pontis Foundation to invite him to meet Milinkevich, and that they had not done so, to our disappointment. Yes, he replied, "nobody should be in a position to criticize my government (as Pontis had) when they failed to offer any invitation; I would have met with him." (Comment: MFA contacts told us they had passed an invitation to Fico to meet with Milinkevich, but had received a negative response. We cannot yet confirm which story is correct.) Fico noted that Slovak Belarus policy would follow the EU, that he supported FM Jan Kubis's V4 and Baltic Belarus initiative (including a commitment to push the EU to help the opposition and civil society generally--septel),but that he thinks engagement with Belarus should not just be with the opposition. Belarus, he noted, is not ripe for an Orange-like revolution. In his visit five years ago he discovered that with average Belarussians Lukashenko was very popular. He thinks that while the election was fixed, Lukashenko still had the support of the majority of the people. Relations with NGOs -------------- ¶11. (C) The Ambassador asked why the government had picked a fight with Slovakia's excellent NGOs over the 2% tax setaside. Fico explained that it had started as a budget item, but the political pressure from civicl society was acute, and he responded to that pressure. He insisted everything was fine now, and the GOS would work with NGOs on a plan for the future. (Comment: We will monitor closely and weigh in as necessary.) The Ambassador noted the irony of Meciar being the white horse riding to the rescue of the NGOs. Fico responded that he surely has a financial deall with SPP, the Slovak gas company which funneled a lot of "charity" money to its own foundation. Upcoming Travels -------------- ¶12. (C) Fico disclosed spring travel plans to Libya (to push a service contract for a Trencin airplane service company), Britain (to meet with Blair in January or February), Argentina, Brazil, and Chile (there are many old Czechoslovak business ties there),as well as to as many of his EU partners as possible. Labor Code -------------- ¶13. (C) The Ambassador asked about Fico's intentions on the sensitive topic of dramatic changes to the labor code, which the Smer-led Labor Ministry is rumored to be developing. Fico said, "There is no reason to panic. Do you think I would endanger this economy, which can fund my social vision, by driving the foreign investment away? Yes, there will be changes, and yes we have a compact with the Trade Unions, but I will not submit something to the parliament until there is TRIPARTA, that is Latin you know, agreement between the government, employees, and employers. This will be very much like my budget; in the end the opposition will have nothing to attack. I will, however, return employees to a time when they can refuse to work for safety reasons; that would have prevented the mining tragedy (in Novaky, in which three miners perished)." The Ambassador urged dialogue with the Embassy and the AmCham as part of the process. Comment: -------------- ¶14. (C) Fico has a track record of telling people what they want to hear, but he was clear to the Ambassador that he was willing to go along with the move to Kandahar. He has also whispered to the British Ambassador that she would be pleased when he announced his final decision. We have new optimism that he will respond favorably to NATO's request to move troops to Kandahar. Fico gave the impression of being firmly in control of the reins of government, doing nothing to dispel the image he is a one-man show. On the other hand, the alternative would be considerably more power for Slota and Meciar, an unacceptable alternative internationally. VALLEE