OPPOSITION PARTY STANDS FIRM, SO SMER WILL RETAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000829 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL LO SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTY STANDS FIRM, SO SMER WILL RETAIN POWER REF: A. BRATISLAVA 494 ¶B. BRATISLAVA 594 Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). ¶1. (C) According to KDH MP Daniel Lipsic, the opposition party Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) is standing firm in its position not to form a coalition with the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) so long as Vladimir Meciar remains the party's Chairman. If Lipsic (who is the most virulent opponent of a coalition with HZDS) reflects the KDH majority, there is no realistic chance for the center-right opposition parties in the Slovak parliament, the Social Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU) headed by Mikulas Dzurinda and the Party of the Hungarian Coalition (SMK),to form a governing coalition in the event that the current coalition should crack. Headed by the left-leaning Smer with junior partners Slovak National Party (SNS) and HZDS, the current coalition has weaknesses because of significant political differences amongst its members. It is also facing notable international censure for the inclusion of the nationalist SNS party. However, so long as KDH refuses to accept any cooperation agreement with Meciar and HZDS, SDKU's attempts to woo HZDS away from Smer - a real possibility - would be for naught. (NOTE: None of the mainstream center-right parties, and certainly not SMK, would form a government with SNS. END NOTE.) ¶2. (C) Over a long lunch with the Ambassador on October 11, former Justice Minister Lipsic discussed the current mindset of his party. The smallest faction in parliament, KDH suffered an internal rift when deciding whether it should enter a coalition with the social democratic Smer or consider a "three plus one" coalition option of the three center-right parties with reliance upon HZDS (ref A). At that time, KDH was the only party unwilling to enter a SDKU-SMK-KDH-HZDS coalition. The party is now in the process of healing its internal divisions and reformulating its vision. Its members, according to Lipsic, are developing a more robust party program, including a thorough economic platform, in order to broaden its appeal beyond fundamental Christian values (which failed to resonate with voters in June). In attempting to reconnect with voters, KDH is focusing on the municipal elections, particularly in the larger cities, to take place on December 2. ¶3. (C) KDH's party congress should be held next May. The Chairmanship will be contended by Vladimir Palko, representing the principled strand of the party, and Pavol Hrusovsky, representing the pragmatist side (ref B). VALLEE