SLOVAK FM DELIVERS BLUNT MESSAGES TO SERBS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000746 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2106 TAGS: PREL PINR ICTY SR YI LO SUBJECT: SLOVAK FM DELIVERS BLUNT MESSAGES TO SERBS AND KOSOVARS REF: STATE 146343 Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). ¶1. (C) Summary: During his recent visit to the Western Balkans, FM Jan Kubis told interlocutors in Belgrade that they must stop fooling themselves and the public; the train has left the station and the last stop is independence for Kosovo. He was similarly blunt with leaders in Kosovo, encouraging them to demonstrate political maturity and offer Kosovo Serbs the most attractive possible arrangement so they see a future for themselves in Kosovo. On ICTY cooperation, Slovakia believes that there has never been a more favorable atmosphere for apprehending Mladic. However, the most likely scenario is that foreign security forces must find and arrest him, as Kostunica has a mental block that prevents him from taking the steps urged by the international community (reftel demarche). The Slovak government will host a brainstorming session with private Serbs in Belgrade on September 8 on what incentives the EU might offer Serbia, and how to encourage democratic forces there. The GOS has invited Kostunica to Bratislava in October. End Summary. Serbs, Stop Fooling Yourselves -------------- ¶2. (C) Slovak MFA Political Director Miroslav Lajcak gave the Ambassador a readout on September 6 of Foreign Minister Jan Kubis' August 21-23 visit to Serbia, Montenegro, and Kosovo. He also gave the Ambassador a written report on the visit (faxed to the Slovakia desk). Lajcak stressed that Kubis gave very firm, clear messages in both Belgrade and Pristina, and that Slovakia fully supports Ahtisaari and the guiding principles of the contact group. Slovakia expects that a UNSC resolution on Kosovo status will be passed during its term on the UNSC. To the Serbs, Kubis' message was "stop fooling yourselves." He said the train had left the station, and the end of the journey was independence for Kosovo. The Serbs must concentrate their efforts on real life issues and getting the best deal possible. Kubis also criticized the Serbs for giving messages to their public which were exactly the opposite of what they heard from their international partners, and intentionally misleading public expectations about Kosovo. ¶3. (C) Lajcak, a former Ambassador to Belgrade, said the Serbs were very surprised to hear such a clear message. He said former minister Kukan never spoke so openly. The Slovak position has not changed, but has been streamlined under Kubis's leadership. Lajcak emphasized that Slovakia was not trying to negotiate; that is Ahtisaari's job. On the other hand, the Serbs trust the Slovaks and know they are trying to help, and this allows Slovakia to be blunt. ¶4. (C) Lajcak said Belgrade interlocutors responded that within five to seven years of independence, there would be no more Serbs living in Kosovo. There would be more violence and regional conflict. Lajcak said Belgrade was capable of pushing Kosovar Serbs to come to Serbia just to prove that the international community was wrong; this is the Serbian mentality. Belgrade simply does not want to see a successful process. Kosovars, Be Better than Standard -------------- ¶5. (C) Kubis's key message in Kosovo was that it was time for Kosovars to show their unity and reach out to Kosovo Serbs, by making them feel secure and believe they have a future in Kosovo. Kubis emphasized that "European standards" for minorities in Kosovo simply were not good enough. The Serbs are a "special" minority in Kosovo. The Kosovars should show that they have an "extra-quality ticket" for the Serbs, which no one will question. Just as the Montenegrins accepted the 55 percent referendum threshhold as going beyond European standards, Kubis submitted to the Kosovars, so must the Kosovars go beyond simple tough negotiating positions. Although Slovakia in general is not supportive of collective rights for minorities, they would support collective rights of Serbs in Kosovo. Lajcak said it was crucial for the Kosovar Albanians and the International Community to offer something to the Serbs, who are not swayed by the prospect of NATO and EU membership. We must keep the pressure on Pristina, because if the Kosovar Albanians are not generous enough, everyone will lose. ICTY Cooperation -------------- BRATISLAVA 00000746 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) The Ambassador and Lajcak discussed Serbia's ICTY cooperation, per points in reftel. Lajcak said there has never been a better atmosphere in favor of cooperation. It is clear that voluntary surrender is not an option and therefore Mladic must be apprehended. One big stumbling block is Kostunica, who is completely blocked by his own personal hang-ups from being able to take the steps we are pushing. He sees Mladic as a hero. Kostunica thinks more about how history will portray him than about practical politics. He would rather have a disaster, as long as history books write that he fought to the end and never gave in. Although intellectually he understands that Mladic must be apprehended, he is not psychologically prepared to surrender him. Lajcak explained, "We like Kostunica, he is honest and clean. But for real politics he is a difficult partner, completely inflexible." Lajcak believes the only way to catch Mladic will be for another country's forces to find him and arrest him, with no intelligence leaks. Next Steps -------------- ¶7. (C) Slovakia has invited Kostunica to visit sometime in October. Lajcak said the EU is aware it must encourage democratic forces in Serbia who want a realistic solution, and that it must offer a comprehensive package of incentives. The problem is that no matter how generous the package is, it will be seen as a consolation prize for the loss of Kosovo, and that loss cannot be compensated by any amount of money. On September 8, Lajcak will return to Belgrade for a brainstorming session with 30 intellectuals, journalists, and civil society leaders on how to encourage democratic forces and what the EU can do. VALLEE