CAN KDH GET OVER MECIAR? WE THINK NOT.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000513 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR DAMON WILSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2021 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM SOCI LO SUBJECT: CAN KDH GET OVER MECIAR? WE THINK NOT. REF: A. BRATISLAVA 506 ¶B. BRATISLAVA 499 ¶C. BRATISLAVA 495 ¶D. BRATISLAVA 494 ¶E. BRATISLAVA 491 Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D ). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Nearly a week after election day, Slovakia's Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) remains stubborn -- courted by both Robert Fico's Smer party and Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda's SDKU. While June 22 statements by KDH vice chairman Daniel Lipsic drew several lines in the sand for the party, party chairman Pavol Hrusovsky emerged June 23 to temper the scene and keep options open (including cooperation with nationalist party SNS, but not with Meciar). Their statements represent the deep divide in the party between principles and pragmatism. As the weekend approaches, we have also heard from several KDH insiders that Smer may have made them an offer they cannot refuse, which would pave the way for a Smer-SMK-KDH coalition. Our latest contacts with the SMK suggest they would take a good Smer offer if KDH did. All in all, signs of a net weakening of PM Dzurinda's hand. END SUMMARY. HRUSOVSKY SAYS NO COOPERATION WITH MECIAR... -------------- ¶2. (C) KDH is said to be deeply divided: those who favor going into opposition vs. those who would co-govern with Smer or SDKU. Lipsic represents the former, and told the media after KDH's June 22 meeting with SDKU that he sees "no chance" to form a center-right coalition, as it would require cooperation with Meciar's HZDS. "We believe this would be a sort of second amnesty for Meciar. He granted himself the first one in 1998, and we would give him the second in 2006." Also ruling out cooperation with Smer, Lipsic said that Smer is "a party with an unacceptable program, unacceptable people, and an unacceptable financial background," but said he would not resign from the party if Smer and KDH formed a government together. (COMMENT: Several of our contacts within KDH have told us they regret Lipsic's high-profile ultimatums and statements, and that they believe his actions have excluded him from holding Ministerial office under any government. END COMMENT.) ¶3. (C) After a June 23 meeting with SMK, KDH Chairman Pavol Hrusovsky declared that Smer holds all the cards. KDH insiders have expressed the belief that Fico has the legitimate right to lead the government, based upon election results. Hrusovsky said neither KDH nor SMK have received official offers from Fico's party, however, according to KDH insider Jozef Miklusicak, Smer's unofficial offer to KDH was "the kind you cannot reject." Hrusovsky again stressed there is no way KDH would join a coalition with HZDS under the leadership of Meciar. However, Hrusovsky back-tracked on earlier KDH leaks (likely inspired by Lipsic) that KDH would not enter a coalition with SNS. KDH contacts also tell us privately they find SNS very distasteful, although Hrusovsky said KDH had not made any decisions on cooperation with any other parties. The KDH presidium will resume deliberations Monday, June 26. We also hear that SDKU will enlist European People's Party President Wilfred Martens to lean on KDH not to join Smer. SMK, KDH READY TO ENTER SMER COALITION? -------------- ¶4. (C) SMK spokeswoman Livia Solymos told us June 23 that both Bugar and Hrusovsky decided at the meeting that they are ready to enter into a government with Smer, if asked. In her view, Smer is trying to suppress the strongly nationalistic (anti-Hungarian) wing of its party. Solymos says SMK is awaiting Smer's Monday presidium meeting -- and that SMK is hoping Smer's rational wing prevails over its nationalist wing. OTHER ELECTION TRIVIA -------------- ¶5. (SBU) MECIAR SUES LIPSIC FOR LIBEL: A HZDS spokesperson told the media that Meciar will file a libel suit against Lipsic because of Lipsic's numerous characterizations of Meciar as a criminal in a June 22 television debate with HZDS vice chairman Viliam Veteska. ¶6. (SBU) SMK: STILL LIKING THE RIGHT: After his meeting with Hrusovsky, SMK Chairman Bela Bugar said his party still considers the a center-right coalition the best choice for BRATISLAVA 00000513 002 OF 002 Slovakia. ¶7. (SBU) KSS LEADERSHIP COMMITS HARA-KIRI: The leadership of the Communist party KSS resigned en masse June 23 due to the failure of their party to remain in parliament. KSS -- which previously had 9 seats in the national council before elections -- did not cross the five percent threshold on June ¶17. VALLEE