SMER AND SDKU COMPETE TO FORM NEW RULING COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000494 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR DAMON WILSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2021 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM SOCI LO SUBJECT: SMER AND SDKU COMPETE TO FORM NEW RULING COALITION REF: BRATISLAVA 491 Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D ). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In the wake of the June 17 elections (reftel),Smer chairman Robert Fico was emboldened to begin thinking strategically about the government he would form with the political capital his party earned at the polls. However, Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda -- himself encouraged by greater support than expected for his own party -- came out of the corner swinging, attempting to put together a SDKU-KDH-SMK-HZDS "three plus one" coalition that would deny Fico most (but not all) of his potential partners. One HZDS interlocutor told us that they prefer this "three plus one" option to continue the reforms, with Meciar remaining party chairman but not seeking a role in the government. On the other hand, HZDS is desperate to govern and will go with Smer as option B. KDH, disappointed in its lower-than-expected results, remains cloistered, considering closely whether to go with Smer, or SDKU. Sources say the party is currently split into three "camps:" those that want to work with Smer, those that want to be in opposition, and those that would work something out with Meciar. Ironically, the "losing" parties will decide the shape of the next GOS. END SUMMARY. FICO GETS MOST VOTES, EMERGES CONFIDENT... -------------- ¶2. (C) Smer chairman Robert Fico emerged from June 17 elections confident that his party -- which performed better than he had expected (reftel) -- would receive the mandate from President Gasparovic on June 19 to construct a coalition according to Smer's preferences. He even tipped his hand to the press over the weekend, outlining three possible coalition options that included Smer-KDH-SNS, Smer-KDH-SMK, or Smer-HZDS-SNS. We believe Gasparovic went through the act of meeting with all party leaders to show a presidential lack of bias. He has called for a press conference at 6:00pm June 19, at which he authorized Fico to form the new government beginning June 20. Only if Fico is unsuccessful would Gasparovic give Dzurinda a chance -- an that option would require KDH, SMK, and HZDS to hold out against Fico. Dzurinda is already deep in negotiations to orchestrate such a course of events; Dzurinda advisors confirmed that, as Gasparovic was on television asking Fico to form a government, Dzurinda was meeting with the KDH leadership. While Fico will get the first attempt at forming a government, Dzurinda -- who has done it twice before -- will be doing his best to make sure Fico is not successful. ...BUT DZURINDA STRIKES FAST -------------- ¶3. (C) PM Dzurinda clearly has been emboldened by SDKU's higher-than-expected percentage, and the fact that more Slovaks voted for reform parties than against. He immediately reached out to HZDS and KDH to try to lay the foundations for a SDKU-KDH-SMK-HZDS coalition. Such a coalition would have an 80 to 70 advantage, four more than the 76 needed for a majority. Smer was surprised and angry to emerge from a 11:00am meeting on June 19 with President Gasparovic without an immediate mandate to form a government. Gasparovic, despite his ideological closeness to Fico, had promised to first meet with all parties. Dzurinda's advisors told us that SDKU was working hard on cementing a coalition deal before Dzurinda's 1:00pm meeting with Gasparovic. Smer vice chairman Pavol Paska told us that they were furious at Gasparovic's refusal to offer them the mandate, noting that "we won a third of the votes; we have a right to form the government." ¶4. (C) Smer immediately reached out to us at several levels, telling us they had heard that Dzurinda was pushing KDH to accept cooperation with HZDS, claiming the U.S. had decided HZDS was "acceptable to the international community." Smer jumped to the conclusion that the U.S. supports Dzurinda's effort, though we have made clear to all parties repeatedly that we would not and are not playing a role in what is an internal Slovak affair. HZDS MIGHT GO ALONG WITH DZURINDA'S PLAN -------------- ¶5. (C) HZDS Vice Chairman Milan Urbani told us June 19 that HZDS prefers a "continuation of reforms" and a "three plus one" coalition made up of the former center-right government coalition with HZDS (SDKU-KDH-SMK-HZDS). Urbani said that KDH is the only party reticent about this formula, with BRATISLAVA 00000494 002 OF 002 former Minister of Justice Daniel Lipsic particularly opposed to cooperation with Meciar. Urbani said that HZDS insists that there is a solution to this impasse that can be reached without removing Meciar from his party chairmanship; he would not elaborate, except to say that Meciar does not want a cabinet Ministry. (NOTE: Urbani is from the "pro-reform" wing of HZDS, and may represent that viewpoint more strongly than Viliam Veteska, who Meciar relies on to build bridges to Smer. END NOTE.) ¶6. (C) Urbani said that HZDS is determined to be in the government, and will not hesitate to work with Smer if the "three plus one" proposal does not work out. Urbani said they already have an offer from Smer, which Fico wants them to sign the afternoon of June 19. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: HZDS, a political powerhouse which came in second place in 2002 elections, finished a disappointing fifth this year. "Slovaks are stupid" Urbani said, "our voters went with Slota's anti-Hungarian agenda. We must live with it." KDH IN CLOISTER -------------- ¶8. (C) SDKU parliamentarian Ferdinand Devinsky told us that his party is working on the "three plus one," but that KDH remains divided about whether to work with them. Devinsky admitted this would be a difficult chore, but noted on the positive side that KDH has not drawn any "we will not work with Meciar" lines in the sand since the election. No one in KDH is saying "no" to HZDS, just Meciar, and if a solution can be found that limits his influence, something might be arranged. Dzurinda is working hard to find such a solution. COMMENT: THE ROAD AHEAD -------------- ¶9. (C) The high number of votes received by both Smer and SDKU has emboldened both, creating a tense political atmosphere in Bratislava. SDKU won an advantage by its fast action attempting to build a coalition, but Gasparovic has awarded Smer the first attempt at forming a government. It remains to be seen whether SDKU's advantage is strategic and will result in a three plus one coalition, or if it was simply a tactical speed bump for Smer -- and PM hopeful Robert Fico. VALLEE