CAMPAIGN ATMOSPHERICS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000489 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON LO SUBJECT: CAMPAIGN ATMOSPHERICS REF: A. BRATISLAVA 1010 ¶B. BRATISLAVA 476 ¶1. Summary. (U) Slovakia has entered the final countdown to elections. Polls open Saturday June 17 at 7:00 AM and close at 10:00 PM (1:00 AM to 4:00 PM EST). The parties are hosting their grand finale campaign programs, the last polls have been released, and the final TV debate has been held. Given the large number of still-undecided voters, these last campaign events have the potential to be quite influential. We offer our impressions of some recent events. LATEST POLLS -------------- ¶2. (U) In the last pre-election poll by the senior polling agency UVVM, which sampled 1000 voters, the only consensus was that Smer would win the most votes in June 17, elections. The difference between the second and fifth parties was a mere four percent. The poll showed Free Forum just shy of the five percent threshold to enter Parliament, and the Communists just above it. Meciar,s HZDS and Dzurinda,s SDKU were neck-to-neck with 12.9 and 12.7 percent, respectively. Interestingly the poll showed a drop in Smer,s popularity since January, from 37 to 28.5 percent, and a four percent rise in SDKU,s popularity over the last six months. KDH remained just under nine percent, preventing an increase for a SDKU-KDH-SMK coalition. A poll conducted by the junior polling agency Dicio showed similar results to the UVVM poll. ¶3. (U) A third poll, released today by the Polis agency and expected to be the last before elections, had Smer losing yet more support, down to 26.6 percent, while SDKU scored second with 13.7 percent. The joint popularity of SDKU, KDH, and SMK thus reached 36.6 percent, which was the highest support received in the agencies, polls since mid-2003. This poll found insufficient support for either the Communists or Free Forum to make it to Parliament. Smer: The Polls Say 32 Percent, But We'll Do Even Better! -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The final Smer campaign rally took place June 14 on the banks of the Danube River across from Bratislava. Turnout was huge -- Smer,s website reports that about 5,000 people attended -- and equally large were the quantities of free food, beer, and visors. Performances by local bands opened the festivities. Party Chairman Robert Fico spoke for about ten minutes, painting a very negative picture of the dire economic state of Slovakia and calling on Bratislava residents to come to the polls. Czech Prime Minister Paroubek gave a more positive speech about the success of social democracy in the Czech Republic and the injustices of the Slovak reform package. He emphasized the strong ties between Slovakia and the Czech Republic. His declaration that "Prime Minister Fico will be the best in the history of Slovakia" won wild cheers from the crowd. All the Smer "Who's Who" were present at the rally, but Vice-Chair Robert Kalinak had the most superstar appeal. He entered the stage to squealing women and lots of camera flashes. In contrast, Vice-Chair Pavol Paska was greeted mostly by people who seemed to know him. ¶5. (SBU) The crowd listening to the speeches was mostly older people. (The young people were still gathered around the beer stands at that point.) A concert by a 1980s rock group followed; however, the majority of the crowd had already moved away from the main stage towards the free sausages, candy, beer, and soda. ¶6. (SBU) The political rally was attended not only by Smer supporters and hungry Slovaks, but also by a group of mostly young opponents of Fico from the organization ODM. (RefA) A group of 20-something youth held up a large red banner reading, "Forty years was enough; we don't want Klement, Paroubek, Gustav, Fico," comparing former Czech Communist president Klement Gottwald to Paroubek, and former Slovak Communist president Gustav Husak to Fico. After leaving the rally, we were approached by two young men who appeared to be no older than 20 and were headed towards the rally; they were handing out bumper stickers with a picture of Fico,s face crossed out alongside the words, "Thank you for not believing him," and flyers depicting the party leader as "the little prince." SDKU: Autographs From the Architect of the Flat Tax! -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) SDKU held a well-organized rally on June 14 in a residential area about one kilometer outside the tourist center of Piestany. The rally was designed as a meet-and- greet with approximately 15 well-known SDKU members including Finance Minister Miklos, Foreign Affairs Minister Kukan, and Justice Minister Zitnanska. PM Dzurinda has also been BRATISLAVA 00000489 002 OF 003 traveling the country, but did not attend the rally in Piestany. Each candidate was briefly introduced on stage in-between songs by the popular Slovak singer from the 1970,s and 80,s (Janko Lehoczky),but in general SDKU focused on personal interaction with attendees over long speeches. The candidates signed picture cards; Miklos even had small posters (11 by 14 inches.) Party workers handed out balloons, brochures and a coffee table picture book entitled "Slovakia in Summer." SDKU decided to forego offering free goulash and beer. ¶8. (SBU) All of the candidates we spoke with noted that the atmosphere was substantially different from 2002, when people openly showed their discontent and anger at Dzurinda and other members of his government. There were about 300 attendees at the rally who based on appearance were a mix of ages and income levels. SDKU holds its final rally at a main square in Bratislava June 16. To counter Fico,s use of Czech Prime Minister Paroubek and show his strong ties in the region, Dzurinda is planning to have several former, current and potentially future Prime Ministers from the region, including Mirek Topolanek from the Czech Republic, Scheessel from Austria and Sanoder from Croatia, participate in this final rally. KDH: Just Email Us -------------- ¶9. (SBU) KDH Chairman Pavol Hrusovsky gave Bratislava one last push on June 15 when he, KDH Vice Chairman Vladimir Palko, and MP Frantisek Miklosko campaigned on a main square. Surprisingly, the three remained in the sidelines, instead leaving young campaign workers dressed in the party,s signature yellow t-shirts and caps to hand out balloons and campaign packets. Many passers-by did just that: passed by without so much as a glance at the campaigners. However, Emboff saw the always earnest Miklosko -- probably the cleanest politician in Slovakia -- engaged in deep discussion with some potential voters. The largest group of people (about fifteen) was gathered around the free candies and beer. ¶10. (U) KDH,s campaign packet featured the usual goods -- a pre-election newsletter, a Bocian Kristian (Kristian the Stork, the party,s mascot) card game, and hard candies. However, this edition also featured a letter from Hrusovsky to voters, imploring them to vote as this year,s elections would, for the first time, take place over only one day and estimates of the turnout were low. ¶11. (SBU) We found Hrusovsky apparently trying to disengage himself from conversation with an older woman. He introduced himself awkwardly, apologizing that they were getting ready to leave for the day. When the woman tried to ask more questions, Hrusovsky encouraged her to come to another event or to email the party her questions -- a line which he had also fed another voter in campaign coverage that had aired on Slovak Television June 12. THE LAST DEBATE -------------- ¶12. (U) The final televised pre-election debate took place the night of June 15. SDKU leader Mikulas Dzurinda, Smer Chairman Robert Fico and HZDS head Vladimir Meciar participated. The personal animosity between Fico and Dzurinda was clearly visible, while Meciar - who often seemed to be left on the side of heated exchanges - struggled to remain both neutral and relevant. ¶13. (U) The moderator opened by asking each candidate how much their parties pre-election campaigns had cost and where the money had come from. All three candidates appeared uncomfortable with the question but none more so than Fico, who sought to avoid naming the specific banks from which Smer had taken loans. Dzurinda and Fico claimed to have spent in the neighborhood of forty million Slovak crowns on their campaigns but Fico challenged Dzurinda,s figures and said that based on what he had seen the SDKU campaign must have cost six or seven times more. Fico charged that the extra money for the SDKU campaign came from funds stolen from public funds allocated to various SDKU-controlled ministries. Despite the fact that none of the candidates wanted to discuss their financing, the discussion and ensuing accusations lasted nearly 15 minutes. ¶14. (U) Fico accused Dzurinda of being dependent on advice from the U.S. Embassy where he "runs to get instructions." Fico also attacked Dzurinda for wanting to introduce university fees. Dzurinda responded by asking Fico why he takes his own son to a private school everyday and pays for his tuition. "If you are so concerned about getting free education to the poorest, why don't you focus on improving the standard of education and send you sonr to a regular BRATISLAVA 00000489 003 OF 003 school. Instead you drive him in an expensive car to a private school; this is not a very leftist approach." ¶15. (SBU) Fico seemed humorless but best prepared to attack with a flurry of details. Dzurinda was the most composed. Meciar was clearly the man in the middle with the debate seemingly taking place around him. He turned red only once: when the moderator quoted Dzurinda's statement to a Czech newspaper that Fico is a Bolshevik and Meciar a murderer. At the end of the debate Fico hinted that a Smer-KDH-SNS coalition would please him. FICKLE YOUTH -------------- ¶16. (U) Poloff watched the last debate of the election campaign with five university-educated professionals between 25 and 30 years of age. Four of the five voted for left-wing parties in 1998 and 2002 and, as of two weeks ago, were inclined to support Smer in this election. As of last night, however, all four had grudgingly decided to vote for SDKU as the least-bad option. (Comment. One SDKU contact had actually admitted to us recently that he was trying to sway some young undecided voters to choose SDKU "as the least of evils". End comment.) All five indicated that they absolutely do not like or trust PM Dzurinda, but that of the three men on stage he was the least bad. The principle factor that influenced the left-oriented voters to abandon Smer were recent press reports that Fico is considering a coalition with SNS and HZDS. (RefB) ¶17. Another young (28) friend of Poloff, an ethnic Slovak from the predominantly Hungarian city of Nove Zamky, has indicated she will vote for SMK in this election after supporting SNS in the past two elections. After seeing SMK in government for the past eight years, she no longer fears they will try to separate her district from Slovakia and she sees the practical advantages that having SMK in government brings to her region. Her parents and her brother still plan to vote for SNS. VALLEE