AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH SMER'S NO. 2, ROBERT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000483 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2011 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR MARR LO SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH SMER'S NO. 2, ROBERT KALINAK Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe Vallee as per E.O. 12958 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Smer's number 2 candidate and MP Robert Kalinak told Ambassador June 15 that Smer was looking forward to forming the next government and likely would turn first for support to the Hungarian party, which is now a member of PM Dzurinda's coalition. A confident Kalinak said he did not want a coalition with the "crazy Meciar" or the "drunk" nationalist Slota. He preferred to bring in SDKU to the more rigid KDH. He weakly tried to defend Smer's links to the old Meciar-era privatizers who are widely seen as corrupt. In response to the Ambassador's pointed criticism of Smer's sudden announcement that it would seek withdrawal of Slovak troops from Iraq, Kalinak contended it was just campaign rhetoric. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Ambassador met Robert Kalinak, MP and Deputy Chairman for Smer, shadow interior minister, and the favorite to become DefMin in the next GOS. Over coffee, Ambassador gauged Smer's view of the elections and the coalition building that will follow this Saturday's vote. ¶3. (C) Kalinak arrived late and immediately dashed out of the coffee shop to retrieve a commemorative plaque and declaration thanking the Ambassador for the close cooperation between the Parliamentary Defense Committee, which Kalinak chairs, and US Embassy Bratislava. The Ambassador understood this as an attempt to make amends in response to our expressed displeasure over Smer's recent attacks on visa policy and Iraq. Ambassador told Kalinak that as Smer stands on the verge of responsible governing, it needs to understand that the Embassy will not distinguish between public and private statements, and therefore, Smer cannot play a double game. ¶4. (C) Ambassador pointed out Smer's long standing history of opposition to Iraq, acknowledging that while the party is entitled to maintain that position, the vitriol was over the top. Ambassador also addressed the issue of the Polish visa proposal, saying that it was not settled law, but rather a legislative proposal with little likelihood of passing. Kalinak responded that all his party had done was to say that the Iraq issue would be discussed in the first coalition meetings. Ambassador replied that the Smer website contained language well beyond that, including personal attacks on the �A;President. Kalinak professed to be unaware of the website. He noted Smer's Iraq policy would be influenced by its coalition partners, and that any Iraqi pullout would be in the context of other ongoing pullouts. In any case, Kalinak said, "it is still just campaign rhetoric -- like your Polish (visa) amendment." Ambassador reminded Kalinak of Fico's pledge in an earlier private conversation not to make Iraq an issue, noting that trust and the value of keeping one's word were intertwined -- values that would be very important if Smer sought to govern. Kalinak said very soon after the elections, Fico would call all the diplomatic corps together to describe their sense of foreign policy and how that fit with their new coalition partners. ¶5. (C) Kalinak was clearly chipper about the upcoming elections. He was very confident of achieving a significant success, noting that even the Ambassador's prediction of 22 - 24 percent (for which he withdrew his cell-phone to calculate the number of parliamentary seats) would e a huge success and entitle Smer to the PM's spot. The party had changed its electoral strategy to reach out to the old and disaffected, and they would be more likely to vote than the youth Smer had appealed to before. Kalinak very assertively dismissed the notion of a Smer-HZDS-SNS coalition: "(HZDS Chairman) Meciar is crazy and (SNS Chairman) Slota is a drunk; we would spend all our time trying to dig out from the messes they would create." Still, voters in the North have been imploring Kalinak not to hook up with "those bad Hungarians." He feared that in a three way coalition, Slota and Meciar together would have too much influence. ¶6. (C) Kalinak's clear preference is Smer-SMK-SF, but he was skeptical that SF would make it to Parliament and assured the Ambassador that there was not a chance in the world that SF's Martinakova would coalesce with SDKU's Dzurinda. The Hungarians were model partners: their leader Bugar has a close personal relationship with Fico and is genuinely liked by many people. However, since Smer-SMK would probably not have enough votes, they would need a third party. KDH would be a possibility, but while its chairman Hrusovsky could be reasonable, former KDH Ministers Palko and Lipsic were uncomfortably inflexible. SDKU was much closer to Smer in its political views. ¶7. (C) And how would PM Dzurinda handle a demotion? "You know, Mr. Ambassador, the speakership is the highest constitutional office in the land, and it is a free ticket for international travel, something Dzurinda likes to do." Smer would keep Kukan as Foreign Minister. (Comment: Kukan has enormous respect and has cooperated with Fico in the past. End comment.) Current Finance Minister Ivan Miklos could not be in the new government, as he and Fico have had too many battles; instead, Kalinak wryly suggested that Miklos take the Central Bank Board of Governors position President Gasparovic has kept open for him. (Comment. Gasparovic recently vetoed the PMs first choice for this job. End comment.) Current Minister of Social Affairs Iveta Radicova would be a fine minister. ¶8. (C) Although the decision is ultimately up to Chairman Fico, Kalinak would clearly prefer the Defense Ministry, since Interior has 20,000 policemen who each have different agendas. Paska would not take Health, as Kalinak noted, "He is not a doctor; those people need a doctor to talk to them." Instead, Paska wants the Ministry of Economy. ¶9. (C) Ambassador raised the issue of how Smer responds to questions about being nothing but a front for old Meciar privatizers. Kalinak noted that Slovakia is a small place and "you can't help but run into these people." Ambassador expressed concern that "these people" would unduly influence Smer, to which Kalinak responded that Fico was a strong chairman. ¶10. (C) In closing Kalinak made it a point to note that Smer had once had a very close relationship with the Embassy -- and Ambassador Weiser in particular -- which only turned sour when Weiser refused to release a list of Dzurinda's "black business dealings" to the press at Fico's request. Ambassador noted that we had reached out to Fico numerous times, and that Fico had canceled at the last minute a family-to-family get-together. Ambassador also noted that we seek -- and believe we have -- good relations with all the parties, that we meet regularly with everyone but Slota and Meciar, and that in a Fico government we would seek the same level of mutual respect and cooperation that we enjoy with the current government. VALLEE